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Trades for/out of #1

Flagg could be argued as an equal or better prospect because his body is (way) more likely to hold up over time.
Ya but since we are talking hypotheticals here I'm comparing the two prospects based on both staying healthy.
I have healthy wemby over healthy Flagg
 
What do you mean by "pretty likely?", as in what percentage would you put on Flagg brimming becoming a top 5 player? The other thing to consider, per your post, is how likely is that to happen within his first 4 to 5 years?
Perhaps misspoke and should have said “has a good chance”. Which yeah is probably something like 15%. Lot of things can happen.

Think that’s about 5x better of a chance than the #2 pick.

Rookie contract is 4 years, then in the last year you can give them a 5 year extension nobody else can, so you have 8 years to build around them before they are likely to leave. If he’s “the guy” those last few years are where you can win it all. If you’re close, maybe he stays.

The chance it all pans out and we win a championship in that period is still really low. I think it’s about twice as likely though as being able to assemble a championship roster around a guy in Utah in 2 years. I think the chances are much better in 3 years. If you can find a guy like that to trade for that still has 3 years on his contract I’d probably think that was a good trade.
 
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If the Jazz land the #1 pick, it's hard to imagine them trading it away—especially if Cooper Flagg is available. He's the kind of franchise-changing talent you build around. Unless a team offers someone like Jokic or Giannis, I don't see Utah moving that pick. Even then, it would be a tough call.

If they're sitting at #2–4, trading up would be tough. Whoever holds the top pick likely wants Flagg just as badly. It would take a massive offer—probably more than the Jazz should give up at this stage. Better to stay put and grab the best player available.

In short, if Utah gets #1, they keep it. If not, they probably don't have the leverage to move up.
 
Jazz are not getting #1. Watch one of the low odd teams that could net the highest ratings (Spurs, Miami, or more likely Dallas as a thank you for putting Luka in LA). League #s are down and they want as high as ratings going into the new tv deals. Would not be surprised in the least.
 
Conspiracy would say Dallas gets it. Note that when Cleveland lost lebron, the Cavs gore the #1 pick in Kyrie the following season.

Also, the year after hurricane Katrina Anthony Davis went to... you got it. N'leans.

Luka exiting Dallas was the biggest news in the league sending Shockwaves. If conspiracy theorists win out...
 
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