Who's the ideal #1?

[Step-Back Hook]

I’ll get slammed for this but I don’t view Markkanen as a #1, allstar caliber… yes.

That's quite obvious at this point of his development. We saw it against Bucks and Nets he is not yet at the level of #1 of contending team. It has been cleear this far he needs more on-ball skills to be the real #1. Can be #2 or part of a tandem. Even as of now he might even become the one that take most shots in a real good team but not being the 1st ption on-ball closer in the clutch before/if he takes more leaps in development.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Jayson Tatum type of #1 option at the wing.

Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler type of players.

 

[HermanG]

I’ll get slammed for this but I don’t view Markkanen as a #1, allstar caliber… yes.

How often does a player stall in development after his break out year, and how often they continue to progress? Id guess latter is way more common.

Views change.. including your view about him this year. Dont make final calls too early.

 

[JazzMan4Life]

I love Lauri but, put me in the camp that thinks hes is a #2
If you wanna win a championship you have to have someone in the top 3
Lauri is not that guy

 

[Elizah Huge]

I absolutely believe Lauri could be the #1 option on a championship team.

 

[LogGrad98]

I absolutely believe Lauri could be the #1 option on a championship team.

Could be, absolutely. Isn't yet, but could be. I think he needs a little more aggression in demanding the ball and commanding the game to be that guy. Right now he takes what comes to him, so we've seen plenty of games where he had 20+ points by the start of the 4th quarter and then we see the JC show nearly the entire rest of the way. For Lauri to be the real #1 he needs to be the guy demanding the ball at the end and making the plays, not just being another option if Clarkson decides to find him.

To be fair part of this is on the coaches and the rest of the team for not purposely looking for him. But LeBron never waited for everyone else to include him in the plays, nor did any other #1 on championship teams. Giannis, Steph, Kawhi, KD, etc. were all the clear #1 option on their respective teams and the team just deferred to them. They didn't wait to be set up, they took the ball and took over the game. Almost always by design from the coaching staff as well, and with a clear understanding of this from the rest of the team. But they demanded it, vocally yes, but through their play as much as anything else.

 

[Korisfani]

The last second hero balling is so overblown. It rarely happens, it's even rarer for it to be effective.

Could Lauri go off for 40 in the finals and score in the 25-30s in all the games. Absolutely I can see it. Could he score possession after possession in Kobe-type isolation. No, not right now, and doubt it will happen even with him developing.

But all you have to do is look at actual finals games. It wasn't just Giannis vs. Booker in an iso contest. Or Curry vs. Tatum. It was just as much Middleton, Holiday and even Connaughton taking shots in the final minutes of games. And CP3, Ayton and Bridges making free throws. Smart, Brown and Horford; Wiggins and even Draymond.

It's much more probable that tight playoff games come down to making FTs in clutch spots rather than that one possession with the shot clock off and trailing by 1. And there aren't a lot of #1 guys I'd rather have at the line in that situation ahead of Lauri.

 

[idiot]

My problem with the Lauri-as-a-#1 idea is this:

Lauri is very likely no better as a #1 than Donovan was (Donovan has a lot longer track record of performing at that level on much better teams). Yet almost everyone here concluded Donovan wasn't good enough in that role to make us a true contender.

I don't doubt that Lauri can be a #1 for a playoff team. But for a real championship contender ... I have my doubts.

I think the Jazz are definitely best served to assume that Laurie can be a great #2 and keep searching for a #1. If he turns into a #1 anyway, that's just icing on the cake.

 

[LogGrad98]

My problem with the Lauri-as-a-#1 idea is this:

Lauri is very likely no better as a #1 than Donovan was (Donovan has a lot longer track record of performing at that level on much better teams). Yet almost everyone here concluded Donovan wasn't good enough in that role to make us a true contender.

I don't doubt that Lauri can be a #1 for a playoff team. But for a real championship contender ... I have my doubts.

I think the Jazz are definitely best served to assume that Laurie can be a great #2 and keep searching for a #1. If he turns into a #1 anyway, that's just icing on the cake.

#1 - Donovan was never a 2-way threat, Lauri is
#2 - Donovan admitted he didn't try on defense at all. Lauri is probably our 2nd best defender.
#3 - Lauri is one of the most efficient players in the league this year, period. Donovan is better this year but has never been known for his efficiency. He was and is known for volume.
#4 - Lauri is a 3-position threat, both on offense and defense. Mitchell is a one position player with obvious physical limitations which we saw exploited again and again.

Now, giving Mitchell the obvious that he is and has been the go-to #1 for years now, Lauri needs to show the same level of consistency year over year. But from what we are seeing right now, IF this is the real Lauri, he will be better than Mitchell was and likely a better #1 option, again IF this is for real, and IF he continues developing. He might be at his peak right now, who knows, we have seen players do this before, get a break-out year then fizzle out. But from what we are seeing Lauri definitely has the potential to be better than Mitchell, and a real #1 for us. But only time will tell.


That all said, I agree we still need to keep looking for a solid natural #1. That is what every team looks for. If we find it, then Lauri's position is just strengthened. But it is entirely possible Lauri can be that #1 and a solid #2 will elevate us to contender status. Remains to be seen.

 

[Korisfani]

Don's career postseason averages are 28/5/5. In two postseasons he averaged 30+.

That's as much as you can ask of any #1 on offense. That's as much as any player that made it to the Finals in the last years has produced. Only peak LeBron has given his team much more than that in recent memory.

And if you don't have that transcendental player, you'll need others to pick up the slack. Or have strong #2s and #3s that can also take over for a stretch and go off. Bogie and O'Neale are and were not those #2s and #3s. It's great to have a super defender playing 35 minutes, but you still need the scoring.

If you try to find someone so much better than Mitchell and Markkanen that you can play guys like Bogie and O'Neale as the next options, I think you'll be stuck waiting for a long, long time. Sure, then you could just have a "supporting cast" around them, but I think the much more realistic route is to find two plus-defenders capable of averaging around 20 consistently. Klay & Poole, Middleton & Holiday, Brown & Smart.

 

[idiot]

With the caveat that I think we see things more similarly than differently overall:

#1 - Donovan was never a 2-way threat, Lauri is

I'm pretty sure I was one of the first here to argue that Markkanen's defense wasn't as bad as advertised, but I really don't think it's any better than just OK. I have a hard time calling him a 2-way threat.

#2 - Lauri is probably our 2nd best defender.

This is not saying much. We have one of the worst defenses in the league, even with one of the best rim protectors playing more and more minutes. We need players that have better defense than Lauri. I totally believe he can be part of a good defensive squad, but he's not the driver of that defensive quality.

#3 - Lauri is one of the most efficient players in the league this year, period. Donovan is better this year but has never been known for his efficiency. He was and is known for volume.

Not quite sure what your point is here. Like Donovan, Lauri was never known for efficiency until this year. For me, capacity for volume is necessary (though not sufficient) to be a championship-caliber #1. We'll see if Lauri gets there as the Jazz improve.

#4 - Lauri is a 3-position threat, both on offense and defense. Mitchell is a one position player with obvious physical limitations which we saw exploited again and again.

Yeah, you're kind of right here (though I'd call DM a 2-position player). But that doesn't really bear on the #1 question. There are a few guys in the league (Ben Simmons, for example perhaps, as we saw recently), who have a really good shot at turning off Lauri's water, just as DM could be limited in a few matchups.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

This is not saying much. We have one of the worst defenses in the league, even with one of the best rim protectors playing more and more minutes. We need players that have better defense than Lauri. I totally believe he can be part of a good defensive squad, but he's not the driver of that defensive quality.

Kessler literally only defends at the rim. He doesn't close out, he doesn't switch, he doesn't try to contain 2-on-1's coming downhill off pick and rolls. He sits in the hole, basically. The kid is obviously already a great deterrent at he basket, but overall he contributes to our defensive problems. (The biggest culprits can be found in the backcourt, though,)

Next season people won't be going at Walker as much anymore, and he'll have to start moving his feet... and then we'll really know what he's made of.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

Defense is improving recently. Not at the nest but decent. Do not forget that this group is plain new and that you need to work a lot to get decent team defense. Another part where Hardy and coachs job seems to works.

 

[rocfan1]

Defense is improving recently. Not at the nest but decent. Do not forget that this group is plain new and that you need to work a lot to get decent team defense. Another part where Hardy and coachs job seems to works.

We need different players to be a good defensive team. Can this group be better sure, but their ceiling is very low. We are a bottom 5 defense in the league. Two of our last five win have come against teams that are even worst then us the Hornets and Rockets. These wins including the Kawhi and Paul less Clippers win may be skewing your assessment a bit.

 

[YoungJefe]

The #1 option on the past few championship teams: Curry, Giannis, LeBron, Kawhi, Durant

Do I think Lauri can be the #1 on a championship team? Eh, I think a good #2 is probably more likely but that's not a knock on him. Although based on the leap that he took this year, nothing is really out of question.

If we're looking for a proven guy, I'd try to trade the house for Jaylen Brown if he becomes eligible for the super max and the Celtics fall short again.

 

[HermanG]

The #1 option on the past few championship teams: Curry, Giannis, LeBron, Kawhi, Durant

Do I think Lauri can be the #1 on a championship team? Eh, I think a good #2 is probably more likely but that's not a knock on him. Although based on the leap that he took this year, nothing is really out of question.

If we're looking for a proven guy, I'd try to trade the house for Jaylen Brown if he becomes eligible for the super max and the Celtics fall short again.

Was anyone on that list a better 3-level scorer at 25 than Lauri has been this year? Remember that you are looking at some vets with long careers at the top.. and comparing your accumulated memories of their greatness to a guy that has just arrived... If Lauri maintains the current level of automatic shooting and scoring... you will think of him very differently 2, 5 or 10 years from now.

Here is a little comparison of those guys age 25 seasons. I left the 2P% there as well but dont stare at that too much since its not separate from the 0-3 ft etc. range categories.. rather a summary of those (weighted on shot selection).

Name	Season	PP36	2P	0-3 ft	3-10 ft	10-16 ft	16-3P	3P
Durant	2013-14	29.9	.549	.798	.417	.441	.445	.391
Steph	2013-14	23.7	.509	.625	.412	.557	.466	.424
Kawhi	2016-17	27.5	.529	.664	.527	.441	.493	.380
Lebron	2009-10	27.4	.560	.745	.468	.344	.398	.333
Giannis	2019-20	34.9	.631	.779	.343	.433	.400	.304
Lauri	2022-23	26.1	.595	.745	.488	.538	.500	.429

No one beats Lauri in FG% in more than 1 of the ranges. So that means Lauri beats all those guys in 4/5 ranges... being the 3rd best at the rim, 2nd best from close range, 2nd best in close mid-range, best in deeper mid-range and best behind the arc.

Few noteworthy things:
1) This year PPG are approximately 5% higher around the league due to increased scoring
2) Lebron had a great year in 2009-10, after which he averaged 24.8 the next year and failed to break 27 PP36 until 2018-19 at the age of 34. But scoring was also seemingly harded back then.
3) Lauri started this year as "one of the guys". After he was annointed as #1 around christmas, his PP36 has been 30.2 and if he keeps that up he will finish the season around 28

 

[YoungJefe]

Was anyone on that list a better 3-level scorer at 25 than Lauri has been this year? Remember that you are looking at some vets with long careers at the top.. and comparing your accumulated memories of their greatness to a guy that has just arrived... If Lauri maintains the current level of automatic shooting and scoring... you will think of him very differently 2, 5 or 10 years from now.

I agree and like I said nothing is really out of question considering that he's only 25 and just took a major leap this season. It's insane how skilled he is at 7 feet tall.

 

[HermanG]

I agree and like I said nothing is really out of question considering that he's only 25 and just took a major leap this season. It's insane how skilled he is at 7 feet tall.

It truely is.. the big thing is really can he maintain it? So far looking good and there is still room for improvement. Exciting times.

What most impresses me is his off ball IQ and motor. He is constantly moving which makes taking passing lanes away really tough and he creates a lot of bad field balance situations for the defense. If they chase him around, he can create space anywhere for others. If they let him move freely, the ball comes and its an automatic bucket.

It sometimes feels like he is creating a new "thing" thats gonna be used as a mold for other 7" unicorn shooter types that the NBA has been historically bad at deploying effectively.

 

[YoungJefe]

It truely is.. the big thing is really can he maintain it? So far looking good and there is still room for improvement. Exciting times.

What most impresses me is his off ball IQ and motor. He is constantly moving which makes taking passing lanes away really tough and he creates a lot of bad field balance situations for the defense. If they chase him around, he can create space anywhere for others. If they let him move freely, the ball comes and its an automatic bucket.

It sometimes feels like he is creating a new "thing" thats gonna be used as a mold for other 7" unicorn shooter types that the NBA has been historically bad at deploying effectively.

I agree. I think he'll only continue to get better as we add more pieces around him as well.

His movement, fluidity, and coordination at his size are what have impressed me the most. I really only viewed him as a big shooter before we traded for him.

 

[Agent#00]

The #1 guy is the one who will carry us in the playoffs. Maybe we'll see one maybe not.