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Allowing the draft to dictate our off-season

karl malone

Well-Known Member
I'm not suggesting that we go into this summer without a plan & just wing it. All I am suggesting is that we allow what happens in the draft to determine how we go about executing that plan; which I believe is to set ourselves up to compete next year by adding players who will not only contribute in this upcoming season, but the following seasons as well. As things currently stand, it appears as though we will be picking in the 9-11 range with the possibility of ending up as low as #12 or as high as #6 (although that seems unlikely considering how we've been playing lately).

Possible outcomes:

#1. Make a significant trade to move up into the top 4

If this were to happen, Russell would likely be the target. Other possibilities could be Mudiay or Towns/Okafor (if 1 we're to slip past the top 2, although unlikely). In this scenario, one of Exum(+1 or 2 picks)/Burke (+3 or 4 picks) would probably be traded & Russell would start at the 1, with the remaining PG sliding into the backup role. In this case, Burks would either start at SG or a FA wing would be brought in, allowing Burks to become our 6th man. FA possibilities would be T.Harris, Middleton, Matthews, Carroll, D.Green, etc (although the first few may be outside of our price range).

#2. Make a minor trade to move up into the 5-7 range

Draft targets would be Johnson or Hezonja. Trade 1 of Burke/Hood + our pick (+ maybe the OKC pick if necessary). If it were Burke who was traded, we could then sign a FA PG to start (Beverly, Lin, Nelson, etc) & bring Exum off the bench along with whomever doesn't start between Burks & Johnson/Hezonja.

#3. Stand pat

Possible targets: WCS (depending on Tomic), Porzingis (depending on T.Booker), Winslow, Oubre, D.Booker, etc. Although we will likely picking between #9-11, this draft is deep enough in lottery talent that a solid player could be had in this range, which might actually make this the best option (depending on what teams are demanding in a trade to move up). There are multiple scenarios which could play out were we to follow this route. Due to there not being an NBA ready starting PG (or, for the most part, player for that matter- although WCS/Winslow/(maybe) Porzingis & (maybe) Booker may be able to start in the right situations), I would imagine that we would go BPA (likely wing unless Tomic decides not to come over). In that case we would likely sign a PG to start with Burks, Hayward, Favors, Gobert & have Exum/Burke, pick, Hood, Booker, Tomic make up our 2nd unit. There are also several other options in this range such as Looney, Turner, Kaminsky (all of which would depend on what happens with our backup bigs).

#4. Move down

We could decide to trade down in order to obtain another asset if we identify a prospect who we feel is being undervalued (like Gobert) or somebody we like begins to slip beyond his projected draft spot. In this scenario, we would probably attempt to sign an impact talent in FA to help make us competitive for next year, while not only allowing us to retain the immense depth of talent that we have at almost every position on the floor, but even add to it.

#5. Trade out

Given the fact that we have 3 players who are currently capable of contributing to a playoff caliber starting 5, this (along with standing pat) is probably the most likely of these options. My guess would be that we would target a starting quality PG or wing. If it were a PG (trade Burke + pick), Burks would likely start at the 2, with Exum backing up the 1. While if it were a wing (Hood + pick), Burks would be the 6th man while we either sign a PG (& deal Burke for future assets, with Exum coming off the bench) or continue to have Exum & Burke split duties at the point.

Either way, we have plenty of options & can afford to take what the off-season gives up. Hopefully that ends up being a playoff caliber team built for sustained success. We certainly have the pieces in place to do so, now we just need to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves in this upcoming off-season.
 
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I don't see us targeting a PG in FA or in a trade. I think the FO are going all in with Exum and are willing to wait for him to pan out or bust and Burke is a cheap second PG, who still can improve and we are probably not looking to move him since his value is not particularly high.

With that said we need:
1. 3d/4th big. I don't see Evans as part of the regular rotation, so we need someone better - hopefully Tomic, if not - target a big or stretch 4 in the draft (WCS, Looney, Porzingis, Turner, Portis)
2. Depth at wing - draft one or pursue one in free agency/or trade(maybe even draftnight trade)

I think those are the most likely options.
 
I don't see us targeting a PG in FA or in a trade. I think the FO are going all in with Exum and are willing to wait for him to pan out or bust and Burke is a cheap second PG, who still can improve and we are probably not looking to move him since his value is not particularly high.

I could buy this, but if Utah was to go all in on winning next year, I could see a trade to upgrade Burke and send Exum back to the bench. Mixed feelings here, as I believe Utah needs to acknowledge that we need to win sooner, rather than later, in order to keep Gordo in Utah. Exum could be 2 or 3 years away, and that won't jive with keeping Hayward when he's UFA.
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I guess it all comes down to how close the FO believes Dante is to being a true starter.
 
I could buy this, but if Utah was to go all in on winning next year, I could see a trade to upgrade Burke and send Exum back to the bench. Mixed feelings here, as I believe Utah needs to acknowledge that we need to win sooner, rather than later, in order to keep Gordo in Utah. Exum could be 2 or 3 years away, and that won't jive with keeping Hayward when he's UFA.
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I guess it all comes down to how close the FO believes Dante is to being a true starter.

I think if Dante makes a Shroeder type of jump in offense and makes slight improvements in D/or even if he stays at about the same level/, we are in the playoff contention next year. And that's even without me taking into account Tomic/draft pick/trades/FA.
 
I could buy this, but if Utah was to go all in on winning next year, I could see a trade to upgrade Burke and send Exum back to the bench. Mixed feelings here, as I believe Utah needs to acknowledge that we need to win sooner, rather than later, in order to keep Gordo in Utah. Exum could be 2 or 3 years away, and that won't jive with keeping Hayward when he's UFA.
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I guess it all comes down to how close the FO believes Dante is to being a true starter.

This is pretty much how I feel. While I would not be upset if we decided to hold firm & continue to allow Exum to develop with the starting unit, I strongly feel that doing so would delay us competing for a playoff spot for at least another year or two. While the front office would obviously have a better feel of whether or not Hayward, Favors, & Gobert will be willing to wait that long, I believe that the competitive spirit of those 3 make it likely that they would prefer to begin that phase of the rebuild as soon as possible. I also believe that the FO has similar aspirations due to the fact that DL referred to Exum as a placeholder earlier in the season. I really think they are going to do what they can to compete next year (while still keeping Dante in the long-term plan) & I think this year has shown that this won't be a possibility with Dante as the starting PG. Although, I agree that a FA PG is unlikely considering the lack of quality options at that position.
 
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This is pretty much how I feel. While I would not be upset if we decided to hold firm & continue to allow Exum to develop with the starting unit, I strongly feel that doing so would delay us competing for a playoff spot for at least another year or two. While the front office would obviously have a better feel of whether or not Hayward, Favors, & Gobert will be willing to wait that long, I believe that the competitive spirit of those 3 make it likely that they would prefer to begin that phase of the rebuild as soon as possible. I also believe that the FO has similar aspirations due to the fact that DL referred to Exum as a placeholder earlier in the season. I really think they are going to do what they can to compete next year (while still keeping Dante in the long-term plan) & I think this year has shown that this won't be a possibility with Dante as the starting PG. Although, I agree that a FA PG is unlikely considering the lack of quality options at that position.
Great points. I went through all other teams trying to see a PG that might fit and that a team would be willing to give up. There aren't very many who would be significant upgrades over Trey. And most PG's on the market are restricted and/or were traded to teams who want them and will make every effort to keep them. We could make a play for Lin, I suppose. But I think the Jazz will stand pat with Dante/Trey. Alec returning alleviates the need for Exum to drive; Burks can take on that role. But Dante is going to HAVE to be reliable on his 3's.

While your first post was long, it was well thought-out. The draft WILL dictate free agency. Jazz need two shooters: a stretch-4 and a wing or combo guard. Whichever one comes in the draft likely determines who we pursue in free agency. The back-up for Gobert next season likely comes down to Tomic or Pleiss, whichever one comes over. Still think Tomic is just playing us in order to get a new contract for more $ and years. Motum is also a possibility for a roster spot. He's had a very good year with Adelaide.
 
I'm not suggesting that we go into this summer without a plan & just wing it. All I am suggesting is that we allow what happens in the draft to determine how we go about executing that plan; which I believe is to set ourselves up to compete next year by adding players who will not only contribute in this upcoming season, but the following seasons as well. As things currently stand, it appears as though we will be picking in the 9-11 range with the possibility of ending up as low as #12 or as high as #6 (although that seems unlikely considering how we've been playing lately).

Possible outcomes:

#1. Make a significant trade to move up into the top 4

If this were to happen, Russell would likely be the target. Other possibilities could be Mudiay or Towns/Okafor (if 1 we're to slip past the top 2, although unlikely). In this scenario, one of Exum(+1 or 2 picks)/Burke (+3 or 4 picks) would probably be traded & Russell would start at the 1, with the remaining PG sliding into the backup role. In this case, Burks would either start at SG or a FA wing would be brought in, allowing Burks to become our 6th man. FA possibilities would be T.Harris, Middleton, Matthews, Carroll, D.Green, etc (although the first few may be outside of our price range).

#2. Make a minor trade to move up into the 5-7 range

Draft targets would be Johnson or Hezonja. Trade 1 of Burke/Hood + our pick (+ maybe the OKC pick if necessary). If it were Burke who was traded, we could then sign a FA PG to start (Beverly, Lin, Nelson, etc) & bring Exum off the bench along with whomever doesn't start between Burks & Johnson/Hezonja.

#3. Stand pat

Possible targets: WCS (depending on Tomic), Porzingis (depending on T.Booker), Winslow, Oubre, D.Booker, etc. Although we will likely picking between #9-11, this draft is deep enough in lottery talent that a solid player could be had in this range, which might actually make this the best option (depending on what teams are demanding in a trade to move up). There are multiple scenarios which could play out were we to follow this route. Due to there not being an NBA ready starting PG (or, for the most part, player for that matter- although WCS/Winslow/(maybe) Porzingis & (maybe) Booker may be able to start in the right situations), I would imagine that we would go BPA (likely wing unless Tomic decides not to come over). In that case we would likely sign a PG to start with Burks, Hayward, Favors, Gobert & have Burke, pick, Hood, Booker, Tomic make up our 2nd unit. There are also several other options in this range' such as Looney, Turner, Kaminsky (all of which would depend on what happens with our backup bigs).

#4. Move down

We could decide to trade down in order to obtain another asset if we identify a prospect who we feel is being undervalued (like Gobert) or somebody we like begins to slip beyond his projected draft spot. In this scenario, we would probably attempt to sign an impact talent in FA to help make us competitive for next year, while not only allowing us to retain the immense depth of talent that we have at almost every position on the floor, but even add to it.

#5. Trade out

Given the fact that we have 3 players who are currently capable of contributing to a playoff caliber starting 5, this (along with standing pat) is probably the most likely of these options. My guess would be that we would target a starting quality PG or wing. If it were a PG (trade Burke + pick), Burks would likely start at the 2, with Exum backing up the 1. While if it were a wing (Hood + pick), Burks would be the 6th man while we either sign a PG (& deal Burke for future assets, with Exum coming off the bench) or continue to have Exum & Burke split duties at the point.

Either way, we have plenty of options & can afford to take what the off-season gives up. Hopefully that ends up being a playoff caliber team built for sustained success. We certainly have the pieces in place to do so, now we just need to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves in this upcoming off-season.


On the bright side, Chad Ford said in his weekly chat that. the Jazz will get a very nice player as long as they stay in the top 12
 
Great points. I went through all other teams trying to see a PG that might fit and that a team would be willing to give up. There aren't very many who would be significant upgrades over Trey. And most PG's on the market are restricted and/or were traded to teams who want them and will make every effort to keep them. We could make a play for Lin, I suppose. But I think the Jazz will stand pat with Dante/Trey. Alec returning alleviates the need for Exum to drive; Burks can take on that role. But Dante is going to HAVE to be reliable on his 3's.

While your first post was long, it was well thought-out. The draft WILL dictate free agency. Jazz need two shooters: a stretch-4 and a wing or combo guard. Whichever one comes in the draft likely determines who we pursue in free agency. The back-up for Gobert next season likely comes down to Tomic or Pleiss, whichever one comes over. Still think Tomic is just playing us in order to get a new contract for more $ and years. Motum is also a possibility for a roster spot. He's had a very good year with Adelaide.

Agreed. I too could not come up with a match as far as finding a team that would be willing to trade a PG that would improve the position for a year or 2 with potentially blocking Exum in the future, although Dante could always slide to the 2 guard if necessary. The more I think about it, the more I feel like we will attempt to package trey with this year's pick (+ another asset if need be) to acquire Hezonja & sign a Jeremy Lin/Norris Cole type on a 2-3 year deal & go with a line-up of:

Lin/Cole-Exum
Burks-Hezonja
Hayward-Hood
Favors-Booker
Gobert-Tomic/Pleiss

Although I am not sold that this roster would be competitive next year, it might be just competitive enough (fringe playoffs) to convince Hayward, Favors, & Gobert to be patient & allow the rest of the team the time it needs to catch up developmental wise.

If a move up to acquire Hezonja is not possible, I imagine we would stay put & draft whichever wing remains out of Oubre/Winslow/Booker. If they are unable to bring over at least 1 of Tomic/Pleiss or they decide to get Booker's $ off the books in order to free up cap space to sign a significant FA, I think they would then instead use this draft to obtain a backup big, as there are several options (WCS/Pozingis/Looney/Turner/Kaminsky) who could all potentially be available in the range we are currently projected to pick. I think the FO highly values big man depth (as it should), so this could certainly be a possibility, maybe even regardless of what happens with our current backup big men.
 
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