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If by the grace of god the Jazz get the #1 pick

2004 to 2013 drafts, sorting by winshares within that draft. Completely arbitrary numbers I assigned below, but I feel like it gives some sort of idea what type player you might get (obviously not all are created equal with injuries and whatnot, Derrick Rose winds up in the 3rd group for example). Most recent data is also obviously very rough and there's lots of room for movement.
Pick number. Tops in draft in win shares / Top 5 of draft / Top 15 of draft / Outside of top 15

1st pick. 2/4/2/2
2nd pick. 2/0/5/4
3rd pick. 1/3/3/3
4th pick. 1/3/3/3
5th pick. 1/1/5/2
6th pick. 0/1/2/7
7th pick. 1/3/1/5
8th pick. 0/1/5/4
9th pick. 0/3/5/2
10th pick. 0/1/4/5

Just for fun all the guys in the top 5 of their draft years who weren't top 10 picks.
2004- Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin
2005- David Lee, Danny Granger
2006- Paul Milsap, Kyle Lowry, Rajon Rondo
2007- Marc Gasol
2008- Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, George Hill
2009- Ty Lawson, Taj Gibson
2010- none
2011- Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons, Kenneth Faried
2012- Draymond Green
2013- Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Deng, Rudy Gobert, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Top 4 picks in most drafts seem to be generally more successful, and being 6th pick seems like bad luck.
 
Eminence said:
2004 to 2013 drafts, sorting by winshares within that draft. Completely arbitrary numbers I assigned below, but I feel like it gives some sort of idea what type player you might get (obviously not all are created equal with injuries and whatnot, Derrick Rose winds up in the 3rd group for example). Most recent data is also obviously very rough and there's lots of room for movement.
Pick number. Tops in draft in win shares / Top 5 of draft / Top 15 of draft / Outside of top 15

1st pick. 2/4/2/2
2nd pick. 2/0/5/4
3rd pick. 1/3/3/3
4th pick. 1/3/3/3
5th pick. 1/1/5/2
6th pick. 0/1/2/7
7th pick. 1/3/1/5
8th pick. 0/1/5/4
9th pick. 0/3/5/2
10th pick. 0/1/4/5

Just for fun all the guys in the top 5 of their draft years who weren't top 10 picks.
2004- Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin
2005- David Lee, Danny Granger
2006- Paul Milsap, Kyle Lowry, Rajon Rondo
2007- Marc Gasol
2008- Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, George Hill
2009- Ty Lawson, Taj Gibson
2010- none
2011- Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons, Kenneth Faried
2012- Draymond Green
2013- Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Deng, Rudy Gobert, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Top 4 picks in most drafts seem to be generally more successful, and being 6th pick seems like bad luck.
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This is great work... The draft is a bit of a crap shoot. If you land in the top 3... there is no way that you trade beyond that imo. In this draft there are 3 guys who I see as similar in talent, but very different players in fit. If I had the first pick I wouldn't want to mess around and get an ill fitting piece. People can say it will all work out, but it didn't remember Enes. We subtracted talent that didn't fit and got better.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
This is great work... The draft is a bit of a crap shoot. If you land in the top 3... there is no way that you trade beyond that imo. In this draft there are 3 guys who I see as similar in talent, but very different players in fit. If I had the first pick I wouldn't want to mess around and get an ill fitting piece. People can say it will all work out, but it didn't remember Enes. We subtracted talent that didn't fit and got better.
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I think if I was splitting into tiers I'd probably go like so.

Tier 1: Towns (He's the only one I could see having a possibility at one day being arguably the best player in the league so I gave him tier 1 by himself)
Tier 2: Okafor, Russell
Tier 3: Mudiay, Johnson, Mario
Tier 4: Turner, WCS, Oubre, Porzingis, Booker
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Tier 1
Okafor
Towns
Russell

Tier 2
Mudiay
Porzingis

Tier 3
WCS
Johnson
Hezonja

Depending on which experts you follow Mudiay could be in Tier 1 and WCS could be in Tier 2... Porzingis could be tier 3. So I guess it isn't that clear per se... my bad. I do think there is a big difference between the top 3 guys and the 7th and 8th guys. There are drafts, like the Anthony Bennett draft, where the top 3 pick doesn't matter as much... I don't see this as that kind of a draft.

Russ' athleticism isn't great... but he has great size for a point guard and has all the skills. Towns is going to be great at the next level. His PER is already better than Okafor's and he will have a positive effect on defenses. He might be a bit slow laterally, but I have a really hard time seeing him bust outside of an injury. I am actually more down on Okafor... post players are not really en vogue in the NBA. Mudiay may be Rose or he may be Tyreke... he wouldn't be ideal as he isn't a shooter.
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My opinion on these guys

Okafor = Al Jefferson, but a better passer. Will be just as bad on D and is a poor FT shooter
Towns - I really really like him, I just think he'll be limited by his athleticism. I think he'll do a lot to help a team win but will never be an alpha on a team
Russell - I actually would probably take him #1 because his team outside of him is pretty terrible. He does a lot with not much help. I think he'll be the first All Star from this draft
Mudiay - Do not like or want him. Big strong guy with an average shot and below average explosiveness. Poor mans Tyreke. Do not want him at all
Porzingas - LOVE him, super young long and athletic. Pretty skilled also. I'd probably take him at 3 after Russell and Towns
WCS - I think he will be an impact guy from day 1. I'd take him 4 if it was up to me. He is a freak as far as size and quickness goes. Would love to have him coming off the bench for us. He'll be AS too imo
Johnson - Would be a great fit for the Jazz- Good shooter that will only get better, great body, very good defender and rebounder ... would only make the Jazz better with him on the court.
Hezonja - like him a lot but is he just going to be the next Bellinelli? Not a bad thing, but not a top 5 pick, if he slipped past Johnson I wouldn't mind him
Oubre is a few years out from being an NBA player


So I'd put them in this order

Russel
Towns
Porzingas
Okafor
WCS
Johnson
Hezonja
Mudiay
 
Beer said:
My opinion on these guys

Okafor = Al Jefferson, but a better passer. Will be just as bad on D and is a poor FT shooter
Towns - I really really like him, I just think he'll be limited by his athleticism. I think he'll do a lot to help a team win but will never be an alpha on a team
Russell - I actually would probably take him #1 because his team outside of him is pretty terrible. He does a lot with not much help. I think he'll be the first All Star from this draft
Mudiay - Do not like or want him. Big strong guy with an average shot and below average explosiveness. Poor mans Tyreke. Do not want him at all
Porzingas - LOVE him, super young long and athletic. Pretty skilled also. I'd probably take him at 3 after Russell and Towns
WCS - I think he will be an impact guy from day 1. I'd take him 4 if it was up to me. He is a freak as far as size and quickness goes. Would love to have him coming off the bench for us. He'll be AS too imo
Johnson - Would be a great fit for the Jazz- Good shooter that will only get better, great body, very good defender and rebounder ... would only make the Jazz better with him on the court.
Hezonja - like him a lot but is he just going to be the next Bellinelli? Not a bad thing, but not a top 5 pick, if he slipped past Johnson I wouldn't mind him
Oubre is a few years out from being an NBA player


So I'd put them in this order

Russel
Towns
Porzingas
Okafor
WCS
Johnson
Hezonja
Mudiay
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Not bad... I think Mudiay is better than that, but don't think he is a great fit with Exum here.

This draft's wild card to me is WCS. Unique guy and I could see NY or LA falling in love with him at #4. Some think Mudiay should be considered for the number one pick. I think there is a scenario where Russell drops to five. When they do athletic testing and workouts he could slide as he is a player who can show it all in a game, but the workouts may look bad.

I could also see Hezonja slipping to the 12, but it is unlikely. I would look to trade up if Im the Jazz, but I wouldn't throw the godfather offer unless we got Russell... Oh wait in this thread we won the lotto... Just take Russ and win chips.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Not bad... I think Mudiay is better than that, but don't think he is a great fit with Exum here.

This draft's wild card to me is WCS. Unique guy and I could see NY or LA falling in love with him at #4. Some think Mudiay should be considered for the number one pick. I think there is a scenario where Russell drops to five. When they do athletic testing and workouts he could slide as he is a player who can show it all in a game, but the workouts may look bad.

I could also see Hezonja slipping to the 12, but it is unlikely. I would look to trade up if Im the Jazz, but I wouldn't throw the godfather offer unless we got Russell... Oh wait in this thread we won the lotto... Just take Russ and win chips.
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I don't see Russell going #1 in any scenario, unless the Jazz get it. That is why I think trading down a spot, which might not even be possible and I get that, is not a bad idea.
 
Beer said:
I don't see Russell going #1 in any scenario, unless the Jazz get it. That is why I think trading down a spot, which might not even be possible and I get that, is not a bad idea.
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I think philly might... I get ya though. I'd just rather control it than allow someone else to dictate it when we are talking such high stakes. I think we have enough young guys and future draft assets.... More is always better, but I'm not sure id risk it unless it was for a super duper asset.
 
I love Favors, but Towns/Gobert would be the ultimate front court. He has the highest ceiling in this draft, IMO.

If we landed the #1 pick, one option I would consider (among many) would be to take Towns, and then trade Favors for Russell.
 
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