What's new
By:

Rudy Gobert against Mutombo, Wallace and Rodman (what do advanced stats say?)

stitches

stitches

Well-Known Member
2023 Prediction Contest Winner
There was a thread on another forum trying to explain to us how Rudy Gobert will never be a star in the league because defensive specialists don't become stars and the example of Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo and Dennis Rodman was given. I don't really care much whether or not the label "star" itself will be associated with Rudy but that forced me to check some of those players' stats. My initial theory was that with the emergence of analytics players who help you win, be it offensively or defensively, would get their recognition and that those players from the past would have been held in higher regard at the time if people knew exactly how much their contributions were important for their teams winning. So I decided to delve into their advanced stats and here's something interesting I found - Rudy pretty much ANNIHILATES all of them in almost all advanced stats. Just in his second season he had better advanced stats than those 3 players ever had in their careers! 3 NBA GREATS! FOR THEIR FULL CAREERS!!!

Here's the best seasons for those players:

WS/48
DM 1998/1999: .206 (no other season above .200)
BW 2001/2002: .190
DR 1989/1990: .189
RG 2014/2015: .206

BPM:
DM 1998/1999: 4.6
BW 2001/2002: 5.9
DR 1991/1992: 4.9
RG 2014/2015: 5.8

VORP:
DM 1993/1994: 4.5
BW 2001/2002: 5.9
DR 1991/1992: 5.8 (his second best season is 4.2)
RG 2014/2015: 4.3

PER:
DM 1997/1998: 19.8
BW 2001/2002: 18.6
DR 1991/1992: 17.4
RG 2014/2015: 21.6

TS%:
DM 2005/2006: .626
BW 1998/1999: .539
DR 1988/1989: .613
RG 2014/2015: .627

Just how good can Rudy be?
 
Last edited:
I think the most important thing about Gobert is that he is a player that you want to see play. He just does things that are jaw dropping in an individual moment. It is to the point that it pisses me off when he goes to the bench because I am missing something. And he does it while playing basketball without the sideshow that Rodman needed.

I mean stuff like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bcb6JNT_rlc

Obviously, the numbers are there, but the excitement level is like nothing I have ever seen for a defensive player.
 
Thank you for taking the time out to do the research. My initial hope was that Gobert would develop in a Mutumbo caliber player (with slightly more offense), but you have just completely blown my expectations out of proportion. Those #'s show that Gobert has the potential to become one of (if not) the greatest defensive players of all time. Imo, he is the reason we have a legitimate chance to win a championship at some point during his tenure as a Utah Jazz. It still amazes me that we acquired him for a 2nd rd pick + cash. That trade alone should secure DL a job for life.
 
framer said:
I think the most important thing about Gobert is that he is a player that you want to see play. He just does things that are jaw dropping in an individual moment. It is to the point that it pisses me off when he goes to the bench because I am missing something. And he does it while playing basketball without the sideshow that Rodman needed.

I mean stuff like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bcb6JNT_rlc

Obviously, the numbers are there, but the excitement level is like nothing I have ever seen for a defensive player.
Click to expand...


As amazing as Gobert's dunk was, my favorite part of that video is the expression on Kanter's face at the end.
 
karl malone said:
Thank you for taking the time out to do the research. My initial hope was that Gobert would develop in a Mutumbo caliber player (with slightly more offense), but you have just completely blown my expectations out of proportion. Those #'s show that Gobert has the potential to become one of (if not) the greatest defensive players of all time. Imo, he is the reason we have a legitimate chance to win a championship at some point during his tenure as a Utah Jazz. It still amazes me that we acquired him for a 2nd rd pick + cash. That trade alone should secure DL a job for life.
Click to expand...
Imagine had DL NOT been able to trade back in. Pre-draft he had hinted at Gobert. Wasting the 2nd pick by trading up for Burke could have doomed Utah. Would have set the Jazz back for YEARS had he not bought that pick!

If Rudy stopped working on his game - right now - he'd still be a great defensive force. And he'd still get a monster contract. But I just don't see him ever coasting on his skills. He's going to sign that $30M/per (GULP!) contract and continue to improve. That's his personality. And I think his fire will drive teammates to keep working in the off-season. Yes, we do have a chance at building a contender with Gobert anchoring the middle.
 
karl malone said:
It still amazes me that we acquired him for a 2nd rd pick + cash. That trade alone should secure DL a job for life.
Click to expand...

Let's also not forget the great moves KOC made to build the team: trading for Favors, drafting Hayward and Burks. And managing the contracts so DL would have cap space to get additional picks. Misstep was in keeping Corbin a year too long. But I think the Millers had a huge part in promoting Ty and keeping him around.
 
I think this more shows that "advanced stats" has a ways to go before it becomes a reliable source in determining how good a basketball player is...
 
The only other (possible) misstep was not getting any assets in return for Jefferson & Millsap. I believe this was due more so to KOC than it was DL, although ownership may have influenced the situation similar to the retaining of Corbin. Although it's possible that there weren't any reasonable offers on the table.
 
magic said:
I think this more shows that "advanced stats" has a ways to go before it becomes a reliable source in determining how good a basketball player is...
Click to expand...

All advanced stats have their warts and specific things they miss or overvalue. You know you have a special player when ALL/most of them like the player, though.
 
karl malone said:
The only other (possible) misstep was not getting any assets in return for Jefferson & Millsap. I believe this was due more so to KOC than it was DL, although ownership may have influenced the situation similar to the retaining of Corbin. Although it's possible that there weren't any reasonable offers on the table.
Click to expand...
Management was still waffling on keeping Paul. That was a trade that was not going to be made. As for Big Al, there were only 3-4 teams that could have legitimately traded for him. As an UFA, he wouldn't have fetched a top draft pick. And KOC ABSOLUTELY did not want to take back a multi-year deal. Right or wrong, he thought the Jazz COULD be players in free agency, just as DL did this season. Didn't sign a player, but we did get the deal done with GS, which wouldn't have happened if we had a lousy vet with another year left on his deal all in return for a couple of 2nd round picks.
 
If he'll score 20 ppg and hit close to 70% of his FTs, he's on par with a prime Alonzo Mourning or D12. The latter led a team to the NBA Finals in 2010 averaging 18ppg, 13rpg and 2.8bg. He's got to keep getting stronger and develop a couple offensive moves. He's already making the defensive impact.
 
Stifle Tower said:
Management was still waffling on keeping Paul. That was a trade that was not going to be made. As for Big Al, there were only 3-4 teams that could have legitimately traded for him. As an UFA, he wouldn't have fetched a top draft pick. And KOC ABSOLUTELY did not want to take back a multi-year deal. Right or wrong, he thought the Jazz COULD be players in free agency, just as DL did this season. Didn't sign a player, but we did get the deal done with GS, which wouldn't have happened if we had a lousy vet with another year left on his deal all in return for a couple of 2nd round picks.
Click to expand...

This is all true, which is why I said it was a possible misstep. Personally, I think we had already made up our minds to turn the reigns over to Favors & Kanter so I think it had already been decided that Millsap would be allowed to walk (otherwise we would have re-signed him considering the bargain of a contract he received). There's no point in questioning it tho as we have no way of knowing if the trade offers outweighed what we ultimately received in the GSW trade. My guess is that we wouldn't have done much better considering the promise that Hood has shown up to this point.
 
karl malone said:
This is all true, which is why I said it was a possible misstep. Personally, I think we had already made up our minds to turn the reigns over to Favors & Kanter so I think it had already been decided that Millsap would be allowed to walk (otherwise we would have re-signed him considering the bargain of a contract he received). There's no point in questioning it tho as we have no way of knowing if the trade offers outweighed what we ultimately received in the GSW trade. My guess is that we wouldn't have done much better considering the promise that Hood has shown up to this point.
Click to expand...
If you need to be reminded who questioned this take a close look at post #9.
 
Stifle Tower said:
Management was still waffling on keeping Paul. That was a trade that was not going to be made. As for Big Al, there were only 3-4 teams that could have legitimately traded for him. As an UFA, he wouldn't have fetched a top draft pick. And KOC ABSOLUTELY did not want to take back a multi-year deal. Right or wrong, he thought the Jazz COULD be players in free agency, just as DL did this season. Didn't sign a player, but we did get the deal done with GS, which wouldn't have happened if we had a lousy vet with another year left on his deal all in return for a couple of 2nd round picks.
Click to expand...

Yeah, pretty much this. Both were UFA and teams have no leverage for a sign-and-trade unless the player is a RFA. I mean they could have tried to trade for a player or two at the deadline, but like Stifle Tower said, we didn't need to get multi-year contract guys back because we needed the cap space for the younger guys.
 
karl malone said:
As amazing as Gobert's dunk was, my favorite part of that video is the expression on Kanter's face at the end.
Click to expand...

When I see that video all I see is how Gobert almost had his legs taken from under him. I get nervous every time I watch it lol
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
If you need to be reminded who questioned this take a close look at post #9.
Click to expand...

I guess we have differing opinions of what it means to question something. I don't question the decision, nor did I in my post (at least that wasn't my intention). I was simply attempting to point out that there is a potential argument to be made that allowing Jefferson & Millsap to walk for nothing could be considered a POSSIBLE misstep. I even defended it (from both DL & KOC's perspectives). Touche on catching my poor choice of words tho.
 
I think the Jazz got themselves a future HoF'er. A Dwight Howard (pronounced the White Tower) but the kind that strives to win. Not only the game, but every God dang position. If he cannot block your layup in that play, he will stalk you and block you to death to revenge it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top