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A Good Word on Cotton

Red said:
Hmm. Not sure how I missed this the first time around. A stat I'm not too familiar with, called PIE:

"So I threw in a new stat that I haven't mentioned before - the PIE stat (or Player Impact Estimate). This is a stat produced by the NBA. Here is what we are told about it:

"It is a simple metric that gives an excellent indication of performance at both the team and player level. It’s a major improvement to our EFF Rating. Notably 2 things changed: (1) We included Personal Fouls, (2) We added a denominator. We feel the key here is the denominator because it acts as an 'automatic equalizer'. Using the denominator, we find there is no need to consider the 'PACE' of the statistics that are being analyzed. In its simplest terms, PIE shows what % of game events did that player or team achieve. The stats being analyzed are your traditional basketball statistics (PTS, REB, AST, TOV, etc..) A team that achieves more than 50% is likely to be a winning team. A player that achieves more than 10% is likely to be better than the average player. A high PIE % is highly correlated to winning. In fact, a team’s PIE rating and a team’s winning percentage correlate at an R square of .908 which indicates a 'strong' correlation. We’ve introduced this statistic because we feel it incorporates a bit of defense into the equation. When a team misses a shot, all 5 players on the other team’s PIE rating goes up."

Here's how to calculate PIE:

(PTS + FGM + FTM - FGA - FTA + DREB + (.5 * OREB) + AST + STL + (.5 * BLK) - PF - TO) / (GmPTS + GmFGM + GmFTM - GmFGA - GmFTA + GmDREB + (.5 * GmOREB) + GmAST + GmSTL + (.5 * GmBLK) - GmPF - GmTO)

Note that a rating of 10% is a player that is "likely better than the average player". Trey had a 6.75% rating in summer league play in his second year versus Cotton's first year rating of 10.33%. Cotton's second year rating jumped to 14.25% (my understanding is that "elite" players fall in the 15-20% range).

What were Cotton's and Trey's PIE rating for the 2014-15 NBA season? Trey came in with a rating of 8.5% and Cotton with a rating of 10.5%.

Getting back to the point. Cotton's first summer league numbers were similar to, if not better than Trey's second summer league stats; and Cotton's second summer league is head and shoulders better than Trey's. When you throw in the NBA season data, it's clear Cotton's the better PG right now."

Link:

https://www.slcdunk.com/2015/9/1/9061213/why-i-will-be-burned-at-the-stake-prior-to-my-41st-birthday
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I assume the Gm stats (such as GMAst) in the denominator are only for stats that occur while the given player is in the game. That means that if you take all ten players on the court for a given stint their PIEs for that stint would cumulatively add to 100%. As you break this stat down it becomes obvious why an average player is at 10%. If one team dominates statistically, though, the five players from that team would probably add to over 50%.

For Durant to achieve a percentage almost double the average is amazing. It might have something to do with his limited playing time last year, though. I'd still love to find a table listing the entire NBA.
 
Stifle Tower said:
So if Cotton excels this season, is it safe to say the doubters deserve a PIE thrown in their faces?
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Well, for sure Cotton is in the situation he is most familiar with:

"Prior to the draft, Cotton said, "As I'm noticing throughout this draft process, it's the same scenario where I have to go out there and prove my worth again because there's just a lot of doubt with my ability. This is a road I've been down before that's what's helping me get to this point in my life because it's always kept me very humble and let me know that I have to work hard because nothing will ever be given to me."

So I believe he will certainly excel in training camp. Enough to sign him and keep him on this team. If he contributes as much as I suspect he will, he will finally be over that one last hurdle to realizing his goal.
 
Long time no post by me and I know you've missed me. Long story short: Cotton will be the Jazz starting PG this year at some point (if not traded). Cant wait to come on this board and let everyone have it.
 
GoFriars said:
Long time no post by me and I know you've missed me. Long story short: Cotton will be the Jazz starting PG this year at some point (if not traded). Cant wait to come on this board and let everyone have it.
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If that transpires, and the Jazz are winning, you won't hear many complaints. And you might be right before all is said and done. As Shammgod said, Cotton is just going to get better and better. Training camp is the next hurdle, and he will stand out there I do expect. I've believed all along that just make that roster and he will be a more important member of the team then many might initially expect. Maybe it's meant to be. Countdown to training camp....
 
The one thing I believe is Quin is fair. This isn't the old system where veterans were given preferential treatment just because they were veterans. Guys like Ingles and Millsap came in and earned playing time. Exum was promoted over Trey. If Cotton stands out, he'll get playing time.
 
GoFriars said:
Long time no post by me and I know you've missed me. Long story short: Cotton will be the Jazz starting PG this year at some point (if not traded). Cant wait to come on this board and let everyone have it.
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Most jazz fans like cotton and hate trey already.
You are weird dude
 
fishonjazz said:
Most jazz fans like cotton and hate trey already.
You are weird dude
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I understand most Jazz fans like Cotton (although a good amount don't) but I think MOST Jazz fans are pinning him as a decent backup / good 3rd stringer. My issue on this board comes in when people completely make him an afterthought given his size and what he has shown in about 10 GAMES.
 
GoFriars said:
I understand most Jazz fans like Cotton (although a good amount don't) but I think MOST Jazz fans are pinning him as a decent backup / good 3rd stringer. My issue on this board comes in when people completely make him an afterthought given his size and what he has shown in about 10 GAMES.
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Well, an afterthought is exactly what Cotton is accustomed to. So we should not really expect it to be any different here then it was when he was in high school, offered 3 days before PC classes started, or following the North Carolina game, which wasn't even worth an invite to the draft combine. So, nothing new under the sun, here. I don't take it personal if he's viewed as a limited bench player. And Cotton will start training camp with the same chip on his shoulder that has served him very, very well up to this point. And Stifle Tower is right in that Quin Snyder is not going to bury Cotton on the bench, garbage time only, if he is showing he can help the team in a greater capacity. Again, he just needs to make the roster and he will take care of the rest. You know, the only thing that would happen is Jazzfanz being surprised if he's better then expected. If they do well when he's on the floor, nobody's going to diss the guy or dismiss him. Or really care if some are wont to say "told ya so". The fans want a pg rotation that results in W's. If Cotton turns out to be the best option this year, you can crow, but as noted, it's not like everybody is hoping he's a bum and gets cut.
 
Red said:
If Cotton turns out to be the best option this year, you can crow, but as noted, it's not like everybody is hoping he's a bum and gets cut.
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This
 
Red said:
If that transpires, and the Jazz are winning, you won't hear many complaints. And you might be right before all is said and done. As Shammgod said, Cotton is just going to get better and better. Training camp is the next hurdle, and he will stand out there I do expect. I've believed all along that just make that roster and he will be a more important member of the team then many might initially expect. Maybe it's meant to be. Countdown to training camp....
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I think the Jazz would be losing if Cotton is our starting PG.

*Edit* reread your comment and it seems that I missed read what you were saying.
 
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