Next Year's Cap Projected Downward

[framer]

Here We go:

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/242743/NBA-Decreases-17-18-Cap-Space-Projection-From-$107M-To-$102M

The NBA's projected salary cap for the 17-18 season has fallen from $107 million to $102 million, according to a report from Eric Pincus.

The cap for the 2017 offseason was expected by some to reach up to $110 million with teams highly anticipating the second substantial increase. The reason for the drop in cap is due to the unexpected rise in salaries.

With the cap increasing to $94 million this offseason, teams had substantially more cap space to work with, but a lower increase will limit their flexibility.

The NBA credits a “substantial increase in projected player spending for 2016-17” that will reduce the league’s projected shortfall to the players to $200 million. The NBA now expects teams to spend more this season, with the higher salary cap and luxury tax threshold ($113.3 million).

So because peeps are signing ridiculous contracts, the BRI discrepancy is shrinking, causing the salary cap growth to slow? If this is actually a thing, I don't expect the contracts to get more frugal, meaning that much of this "unlimited" cap space room will dry up sooner than later. Jazz did well with structuring their contracts.

 

[dipship31]

Jazz playing chess

 

[Boris]

Here We go:

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/242743/NBA-Decreases-17-18-Cap-Space-Projection-From-$107M-To-$102M



So because peeps are signing ridiculous contracts, the BRI discrepancy is shrinking, causing the salary cap growth to slow? If this is actually a thing, I don't expect the contracts to get more frugal, meaning that much of this "unlimited" cap space room will dry up sooner than later. Jazz did well with structuring their contracts.

Cap has been projected to massively increase then stagnate/decline for 4-5 years now...

 

[framer]

Cap has been projected to massively increase then stagnate/decline for 4-5 years now...

That "massively increase" is the part coming into question now. It appears that the entire thing was reliant on teams NOT giving the Even Turners of the world the unapologetic max. Now that this is happening, and doesn't appear to be slowing, those "massive increase" numbers could come back to earth, leaving many of the teams signing those contracts right now with some measure of regret.

 

[fishonjazz]

Jazz straight killing this rebuild!

 

[framer]

It makes sense though if you figure over the past few years probably a third of the teams in the NBA were in active tank mode, barely scraping above the league spending floor. If those teams suddenly move closer to spending at the cap level, the money going out to the players goes up and reaches the magical percentage sooner, meaning that there is less room for the teams that want to spend a LOT more. How many teams are in active tank now? I honestly can't think of any. . .

 

[NAOS]

It makes sense though if you figure over the past few years probably a third of the teams in the NBA were in active tank mode, barely scraping above the league spending floor. If those teams suddenly move closer to spending at the cap level, the money going out to the players goes up and reaches the magical percentage sooner, meaning that there is less room for the teams that want to spend a LOT more. How many teams are in active tank now? I honestly can't think of any. . .

The Lakers will suck again. And I kinda think they know it + are looking at the 2017 class.

But, you're right: very few racing to the bottom right now. Excellent post on what this means for the upcoming cap.

 

[NAOS]

Jazz playing chess

Jazz straight killing this rebuild!

Last year's offseason remains a blemish on the record (I won't mention the whiffs on Kanter and Burke because everybody misses on draft picks). If y'all are reading any sports beside what you see on JFC, then you'd know that every single capologist is lauding contracts signed in the past two offseasons. And the jazz had an advantage as a buyer in both markets.

This offseason has been savvy as hell, but why do we have to go all fanboy about the entire rebuild? Teams are better with smarter fans.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Lakers will suck again. And I kinda think they know it + are looking at the 2017 class.

But, you're right: very few racing to the bottom right now. Excellent post on what this means for the upcoming cap.

They arent looking at the 2017 class. They have to finish in the bottom 3 to do that. They went out and signed veteran free agents. They should be just good enough to no retain their pick (hopefully). Which is the hilarious part. I guess it's possible they do though since there really arent any woefully bad teams in the NBA this year. Funny teh year that looks to be the most stacked since Lebron is the year everyone decides to stop tanking.

 

[Coach Ellis]

The Lakers will suck again. And I kinda think they know it + are looking at the 2017 class.

But, you're right: very few racing to the bottom right now. Excellent post on what this means for the upcoming cap.

Hopefully it means that frugal teams like the Jazz are ahead of the curve. Still wish they'd have been projecting some of this stuff earlier and had extended Hayward for 5 years and also gotten guys on cheap contracts while they had a chance.

 

[NAOS]

They arent looking at the 2017 class. They have to finish in the bottom 3 to do that. They went out and signed veteran free agents. They should be just good enough to no retain their pick (hopefully). Which is the hilarious part.

link?

Who is clearly worse than them right now? And, wtf do you think Deng and Mozvog are going to move them far?

Also, explain your general retardation, pls.

 

[framer]

Heh, this is actually fun to contemplate. For every schlub that gets massively overpaid, the projected cap for EVERYONE in the league gets dropped a bit. For every underpaid player that finally makes what he is worth on his new contract, the projected cap drops a bit. If a glut of players take deals that leave them underpaid or higher paid vets retire, the overall cap likely rises just a bit. In other words, the cap isn't actually a hard number in dollars, but a carrot to move more spending to the players. If everyone tries to eat the carrot at the same time, there will not be enough for everyone. If every team came right out and said we are going to spend over the cap, the cap would shrink considerably, as would the luxury tax threshold. So max salaries generated when the cap is ethereal, will be overpays if the cap actually reflects a 1 to 1 ratio with players' percentage of BRI.

That is not at all the understanding that I had previously.

 

[NAOS]

Hopefully it means that frugal teams like the Jazz are ahead of the curve. Still wish they'd have been projecting some of this stuff earlier and had extended Hayward for 5 years and also gotten guys on cheap contracts while they had a chance.

Hayward on a 5-year.... another blemish.

bUT wAiTT!1!1!! FANBOI!!!

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

link?

Who is clearly worse than them right now? And, wtf do you think Deng and Mozvog are going to move them far?

Also, explain your general retardation, pls.

Deng/Mozgov won't move them far, but they will win them more games. They have a coach who isn't Byron Scott and they won't be playing Kobe Bryant. If they were trying to get a guaranteed selection in the draft they woudn't have signed those players.

Google it for yourself. They had to finish in the bottom 3 of the lottery this past year to retain the pick, the protection just moved down another year to 2017. If the Lakers keep the pick again it will be a non-protected pick in 2018.

 

[Stoked]

Last year's offseason remains a blemish on the record (I won't mention the whiffs on Kanter and Burke because everybody misses on draft picks). If y'all are reading any sports beside what you see on JFC, then you'd know that every single capologist is lauding contracts signed in the past two offseasons. And the jazz had an advantage as a buyer in both markets.

This offseason has been savvy as hell, but why do we have to go all fanboy about the entire rebuild? Teams are better with smarter fans.

This is built on the false premise that 'fanboy" excludes you from being a mart fan. Sometimes they absolutely overlap.

This offseason is being lauded because it deserves to be. Just like last offseason is criticized because it deserves to be.

 

[NAOS]

Deng/Mozgov won't move them far, but they will win them more games. They have a coach who isn't Byron Scott and they won't be playing Kobe Bryant. If they were trying to get a guaranteed selection in the draft they woudn't have signed those players.

Google it for yourself. They had to finish in the bottom 3 of the lottery this past year to retain the pick, the protection just moved down another year to 2017. If the Lakers keep the pick again it will be a non-protected pick in 2018.

I know what the ****ing protection is. And I know they'll be slightly better. And I noticed you didn't answer the question about who is slightly worse.

How do you manage to say so much, but also say nothing? Is this what they teach you to do in the food delivery service industry?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Teams are better with smarter fans.

That's why the Jazz havent won a championship yet, none of us are as smart as NAOS. If we all just got as smart as NAOS, the Jazz would improve exponentially.

 

[NAOS]

This is built on the false premise that 'fanboy" excludes you from being a mart fan. Sometimes they absolutely overlap.

This offseason is being lauded because it deserves to be. Just like last offseason is criticized because it deserves to be.

I am a mart fan. Which is why I knew the jazz needed to go to the mart and buy some players.

repped.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Jazz approach this offseason has been great. Some of these contracts have been horrible and hopefully the lower cap number reduces the suitors for G-Time.

Next year we likely choose between Burks and Hill. Doubt we can resign everyone, renegotiate Favs, and keep Burks. Think he is moved around the draft or beginning of FA next year.

 

[NAOS]

That's why the Jazz havent won a championship yet, none of us are as smart as NAOS. If we all just got as smart as NAOS, the Jazz would improve exponentially.

finally, an honest voice from you. An absolutely defeated voice.