Utah Jazz Draft Picks and Altered Timeline -- Why The Jazz Must Dip Back Into the Lottery

[SCS]

You are underestimating what made us win last year, Gobert. He is going to be even better. Add in the fact that we had a ton of key injuries last year I feel pretty good about getting a similar record if reasonably healthy.

No I don't underestimate that at all. Gobert is easily our most important player. We will still be a top defense in the NBA. But we took a huge hit offensively with the loss of Hayward and Hill. That's a lot of points out the door. And in Hayward's case consistency out the door too. The bulk of the offensive load could rest on Hood now. I like Hood but he is streaky and hasn't been able to stay healthy. I think our offense will have issues at times. The other factor is that other teams are vastly improved. OKC found their KD replacement in Paul George. Minny added defense and experience with Jimmy Butler. Portland will have a full season with Nurkic and added a talented big in the draft. Denver added Millsap, Jokic will be better. The Grizzlies are still good. The Clippers lost star power but filled needs and became much deeper.

We'll be fine. As of now I see us being around 45 wins. I don't think we'll suffer a huge drop off. But with the depth in the West 45 wins might not be enough to make it next year.

 

[Engorged On Unborn Gore]

All of the talent that came to the west might make teams better, but they are going to have to score on an improved Jazz defense.

The Jazz, by virtue of losing Hill/Mack and adding Mitchell/Rubio are improved defensively at the guard spots. Add in Exum's improvement and the stability of Gobert's rim protection, and we might be rotating the best defensive guard lineup in the league.

I don't think this team wins less than 45 games.

 

[The Midnight]

Gobert is too good for that. Unless you plan on Gobert getting hurt you can't tank with a top ten player in your roster, especially when that roster has lots of talent around him and lots of depth.

If Gobert goes down we can get a lottery pick. Otherwise we would have to trade a lot of players away for rookies or draft picks to not win with Gobert.

Remember how Robinson was 'injured' that year the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan?

 

[Aneurism]

Gobert is too good for that. Unless you plan on Gobert getting hurt you can't tank with a top ten player in your roster, especially when that roster has lots of talent around him and lots of depth.

Gobert - Here is your chance to practice your mid range shot and get some confidence with your hotspots..Perhaps also introduce a skyhook..

Favors, - here is your chance to gain some confidence shooting some 3 pointers..

Hood, .. Here is your chance to try to increase your endurance and get your legs back whilst working on your consistency

Mitchell and Exum..lets see what you can do

Rubio..Use this time to figure out the plays and also try to get the confidence to take the open shot..

If everyone gets controlled license to use this season to use and test new skill sets in order to grow,..we might not necessarily win the games.. As long as it is done in a way that players don't lose confidence..then why not.. ? It won't be pretty to watch..but I'd like to see those things happen (obviously when it is situationally correct to)..ie.. if favors is open at the 3 point line..etc etc

Afterwhich they get a lottery pick and remove the stuff that didn't work. I'd be ok to watch it unfold instead of watch it slowly drag out with vets..like the days when Ty was coaching..

 

[Jazz4ever]

I'm all for giving Exum an Mitchell 36 minutes a game while signing just fillers with the rest of our cap.
I really like the chemistry I saw between Mitchell and Exum in summer league and think there could be something special there.
It's a stealth tank but also accelerates the development of Exum and Mitchell.

Without Crowder, I'm not seeing a reason to go all out in the stacked west. Maybe I can be convinced, but I lean toward the stealth tank.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Seeing as how strong the West is this year I wouldn't mind hitting a soft 'reset' button and trying to grab a top #5 pick in next year's draft.


It would also give guys like Hood, Exum and Mitchell valuable court time.

If we were to do this, we'd do it the same way we did two years ago, which would be to eviscerate our depth. The starters would build a lead, and then our bench would lose it. We'd loose a lot of close games as a result. We'd trade out Joe Johnson, Derrick Favors and maybe even Joe Ingles for future assets. It would be a bold stroke.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If we can pull off an awesome trade so the team can compete for the playoffs and draft with someone else's lottery pick, that would be ideal, of course.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If Gobert plays there is no way we lose more than 41 games.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Remember how Robinson was 'injured' that year the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan?

Yes, I want no part of Gobert being injured just for a chance at the lottery. I would prefer for Gobert to play next season and continue his improvement. I think he can be in the MVP discussion next year. He wont win it because we value volume shooters too much.

 

[Siro]

Yes, I want no part of Gobert being injured just for a chance at the lottery. I would prefer for Gobert to play next season and continue his improvement. I think he can be in the MVP discussion next year. He wont win it because we value volume shooters too much.

Gobert is amazing. According to Nate Silver's site, Gobert is something like 13 wins above replacement. That's similar to players like Durant and Leonard.

 

[JAZZGASM]

Playing Exum and Hood a ton is a mixed bag. If they both improve substantially (the opportunity should be there), they both become RFAs at the same time and we may deal w an overpay to keep them. Hurts the most w Exum, but injuries and youth have made his trajectory longer. I hope he shines. Hopefully we can extend both now and leave some room.

Next we make a max offer to Jabari next year (no other rfas that could be the impact player we need next year). His injuries are a risk, and I do not like him like many on here do, but it is a risk worth taking IMO. Also look to trade Favors, Johnson and Diaw for young talent or picks to contenders.

 

[elan_prodigy]

Now that we have cap space with Hayward leaving is it worth taking on a bad contract in order to get back in the Lottery?

Noah + 1st round pick from Knicks for Bolomboy? Would Knicks even consider that?

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

So just to re-iterate, the Jazz went just through a 4-year development cycle, progressing from 25 wins, to 38 wins, to 40 wins (would have been 45 or so without the injuries), to 51 wins (would have been 55 or so with better health). The purpose was to develop a young competitive core based on the following players: Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks, Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert, Dante Exum, Rodney Hood and Trey Lyles.

It didn't work.

Fortunately, Rudy Gobert, Dante Exum, Rodney Hood and Donovan Mitchell give the Jazz a chance to try again. However, in the bigger picture, the Jazz are set back to that 38 - 40-win stage. As in the past, there are going to be a whole bunch of teams with very similar records in that range, and every win the Jazz record will cost the Jazz 1 or 2 spots in the next draft.

I think the Jazz have now zero'd in on the types of players they need to draft:

--Plus athleticism
--Plus size/length
--Most importantly, competitive desire

The moral of the story is -- try not to miss on the next Giannis Antetokunbo.