What's new
By:

Central tank command : the official thread

Handlogten's Heros said:
They can trade their pick... for the 1000th time... the stepien rule only looks forward... so if they had traded their 2019 pick they can't trade 2018 or 2020... it does not care what they did last year.
Click to expand...

That's what I thought. Others were saying the NO pick wasn't available.
 
LoPo said:
That's what I thought. Others were saying the NO pick wasn't available.
Click to expand...

I know it wasn't you... was just answering the question.
 
Tank SZN.. 1 game out of 9th spot.

Make a couple tank trades and we are staring at 6-8
 
Genuine question for non-tank supporters:

We're currently sitting at #11. If we stand pat/improve, I envision us ending up anywhere from #11-15 (If not higher). Without Favors + depth (Jerebko, JJ, Thabo, Udoh, Burks) I believe we would likely be somewhere between #6-10.

I don't know this year's draft class well enough to know what kind of talent drop off there is from 5-10 to 11-15. But out of curiosity I glanced at some (potentially incorrect) statistics & did some (potentially incorrect) math.

We're currently 3 games up on #6 SAC (3.5 away from top 5)

According to these percentages, the odds of find a star by pick are:

6. 25%
7. 30%
8. 35%
9. 30%
10. 35%

11. 15%
12. 5%
13. 20%
14. 25%
15. 10%


I didn't look into the study closely enough to know what the qualifications were/etc but if these statistics are valid (& my math is correct), on average, the chances of finding a "star" are 31% when drafting #6-10. When drafting #11-15, it's an avg of 15. So, theoretically, the difference between finding that 3rd piece is +16% when drafting #6-10 vs #11-15.

The information may not be legit, my question is if people continuing to push for the playoffs believe that we have anywhere near a 16% chance of winning a title this year? Or if they consider it irrelevant.

I'm not attempting to attack anyone's opinion but the only justification I can see for not structuring this year's roster (while retaining the long-term core) to produce the highest potential draft pick is having immense faith in DL finding a star regardless of draft position & the belief that the possible playoff experience is essential to re-establishing a "winning culture". Curious what people think.
 
Last edited:
today's tankathon.

knicks vs Mavs
hawks vs lakers
thunder vs suns
spurs vs blazers
jazz vs heat

for maximum sustained tank teams underlined and in bold need to win. I think we need to continue to slide into that top 5 range.
 
karl malone said:
Genuine question for non-tank supporters:

We're currently sitting at #11. If we stand pat/improve, I envision us ending up anywhere from #11-15 (If not higher). Without Favors + depth (Jerebko, JJ, Thabo, Udoh, Burks) I believe we would likely be somewhere between #6-10.

I don't know this year's draft class well enough to know what kind of talent drop off there is from 5-10 to 11-15. But out of curiosity I glanced at some (potentially incorrect) statistics & did some (potentially incorrect) math.

We're currently 3 games up on #6 SAC (3.5 away from top 5)

According to these percentages, the odds of find a star by pick are:

6. 25%
7. 30%
8. 35%
9. 30%
10. 35%

11. 15%
12. 5%
13. 20%
14. 25%
15. 10%


I didn't look into the study closely enough to know what the qualifications were/etc but if these statistics are valid (& my math is correct), on average, the chances of finding a "star" are 31% when drafting #6-10. When drafting #11-15, it's an avg of 15. So, theoretically, the difference between finding that 3rd piece is +16% when drafting #6-10 vs #11-15.

The information may not be legit, my question is if people continuing to push for the playoffs believe that we have anywhere near a 16% chance of winning a title this year? Or if they consider it irrelevant.

I'm not attempting to attack anyone's opinion but the only justification I can see for not structuring this year's roster (while retaining the long-term core) to produce the highest potential draft pick is having immense faith in DL finding a star regardless of draft position & the belief that the possible playoff experience is essential to re-establishing a "winning culture". Curious what people think.
Click to expand...

Curious, what draft position was Gobert drafted again? How about Mitchell? Top 5 right? Didn't think so. There are never guarantees so why not try to win instead of breed a culture of mediocrity and losing mentality?
 
DasJazz said:
Curious, what draft position was Gobert drafted again? How about Mitchell? Top 5 right? Didn't think so. There are never guarantees so why not try to win instead of breed a culture of mediocrity and losing mentality?
Click to expand...

where was tim duncan drafted?
LoPo said:
We don't need to tank. We just need to trade Favors, Burks and/or Rubio. Maybe Hood too...

Sent from my VS995 using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...

for what?
 
DasJazz said:
Curious, what draft position was Gobert drafted again? How about Mitchell? Top 5 right? Didn't think so. There are never guarantees so why not try to win instead of breed a culture of mediocrity and losing mentality?
Click to expand...

It's obviously possible to find talent any where in the draft & DL has clearly shown the ability to do so more than others but statisticlly, (again, not sure how reliable the source is) you generally have a higher chance of finding a "star" the higher you pick. Gobert & Mitchell (to a lesser extent) are outliers.

You're right, there are no guarantees so why not give yourself the best odds possible? I agree that avoiding developing a losing culture is important but I disagree that it's more important than giving yourself the highest percentage possible of find a star, especially when we're 1 away from having a legitimate, young, homegrown big 3.

If I believed we had a reasonable chance at making a decent playoff run, I may feel differently. But when seeing that the chance of find a star between #6-10 is 31% & #11-15 is 16%, I can't see a valid argument that we would be better off picking in that #11-15 range.

Not when we're gambling on acquiring the final piece of the (seemingly) biggest requirement to winning a championship these days.
 
karl malone said:
It's obviously possible to find talent any where in the draft & DL has clearly shown the ability to do so more than others but statisticlly, (again, not sure how reliable the source is) you generally have a higher chance of finding a "star" the higher you pick. Gobert & Mitchell (to a lesser extent) are outliers.

You're right, there are no guarantees so why not give yourself the best odds possible? I agree that avoiding developing a losing culture is important but I disagree that it's more important than giving yourself the highest percentage possible of find a star, especially when we're 1 away from having a legitimate, young, homegrown big 3.

If I believed we had a reasonable chance at making a decent playoff run, I may feel differently. But when seeing that the chance of find a star between #6-10 is 31% & #11-15 is 16%, I can't see a valid argument that we would be better off picking in that #11-15 range.

Not when we're gambling on acquiring the final piece of the (seemingly) biggest requirement to winning a championship these days.
Click to expand...

Now this is a well thought out, reasonable response.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top