Following Potential 2018 Draftees

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So you just let him sit on your bench behind Rudy? A player of his profile will not take well to that. You risk having a (honestly justified) malcontent player on your bench who is just demanding trades and lowering his value.

He could be very good, but Rudy is already a top 15 NBA player. You either trade him or you trade Rudy, I don't see any other way.

The problem is Rudy has had 3 knee injuries in the span of 15 games. Now they are all relatively fluky, but it is possible Gobert just has somewhat unstable knees because of his size. I think I will be willing to take Ayton and risk malcontent situation. Just the potential reward is too high to pass on. I will take him as a Gobert insurance and I will limit Gobert's minutes a bit so Ayton will have at least 20ish minutes a game. And if he shows similar potential to what Mitchell did in his rookie year, I might be leaning towards trading Gobert either at the trade deadline or at the following draft. I will be getting myself ready to reorient our core towards Mitchell's timeline rather than Gobert's timeline.

For example imagine you get Mitchell-Ayton showing tons of promise and say a top 5 pick for Gobert in 2019 with the likes of RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Zion coming into the draft at that time. I would feel pretty good for that type of core going forward

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The problem is Rudy has had 3 knee injuries in the span of 15 games. Now they are all relatively fluky, but it is possible Gobert just has somewhat unstable knees because of his size. I think I will be willing to take Ayton and risk malcontent situation. Just the potential reward is too high to pass on. I will take him as a Gobert insurance and I will limit Gobert's minutes a bit so Ayton will have at least 20ish minutes a game. And if he shows similar potential to what Mitchell did in his rookie year, I might be leaning towards trading Gobert either at the trade deadline or at the following draft. I will be getting myself ready to reorient our core towards Mitchell's timeline rather than Gobert's timeline.

But Gobert literally showed he is a borderline top 10 player last year...

Personally I don't buy him being injury prone, at least not anymore so than Ayton. Big guys are just going to be susceptible to dudes falling into their knees. Just in general I don't fret over injuries unless there have been multiple surgeries.

I just wouldn't want to sit through another rebuild. Trading Gobert and building around Ayton/Mitchell would be another year or two of not making the playoffs. And it's not like you are settling by sticking w/ Gobert. He is a top 15 player. Use Ayton's rights to get another another top player, a high draft pick, and additional assets. Boom the Jazz are back to being a top team in the West and a potential contender. Anytime you make any trade there is always a risk that you will end up looking foolish.

Plus, the idea of "reorienting the core towards Mitchell" just seems foolish to me. It should be oriented to competing now on Mitchell's rookie contract w/ Gobert signed. Not that the Jazz should be selling everything to make the playoffs, but the goal should be to make the playoffs in 2019 and use that momentum to sign a max player to complete the core.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

That, and I do believe in some sort of loyalty towards players. Rudy is Jazz basketball and should be a Jazz man for life.

 

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But Gobert literally showed he is a borderline top 10 player last year...

Personally I don't buy him being injury prone, at least not anymore so than Ayton. Big guys are just going to be susceptible to dudes falling into their knees. Just in general I don't fret over injuries unless there have been multiple surgeries.

I just wouldn't want to sit through another rebuild. Trading Gobert and building around Ayton/Mitchell would be another year or two of not making the playoffs. And it's not like you are settling by sticking w/ Gobert. He is a top 15 player. Use Ayton's rights to get another another top player, a high draft pick, and additional assets. Boom the Jazz are back to being a top team in the West and a potential contender. Anytime you make any trade there is always a risk that you will end up looking foolish.

Don't get me wrong. I see your point and I don't mind at all that plan... I just think the other plan is not unreasonable at all, either. IMO if such scenario presents itself there is a serious discussion DL and the FO will have to have about whether it's prudent to trade a player like Ayton. This is one that we might regret. Furthermore in my plan you keep Gobert at least for a year. You can still trade Ayton the following draft if Gobert's injury issues seem to be behind him and if him and Mitchell are gelling well. Or you can trade Gobert if Ayton seems like a future monster and top 10 player(IMO there is a significant chance of this being the case). You keep your options open... and you all but ensure you will be having a monster center for the foreseeable future. + you give yourself a chance to draft one of the premier wings coming into the draft in 2019. Cam Reddish, RJ Barrett, Zion... I can see all of them fitting real well with both Mitchell-Gobert and Mitchell-Ayton core...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Don't get me wrong. I see your point and I don't mind at all that plan... I just think the other plan is not unreasonable at all, either. IMO if such scenario presents itself there is a serious discussion DL and the FO will have to have about whether it's prudent to trade a player like Ayton. This is one that we might regret. Furthermore in my plan you keep Gobert at least for a year. You can still trade Ayton the following draft if Gobert's injury issues seem to be behind him and if him and Mitchell are gelling well. Or you can trade Gobert if Ayton seems like a future monster and top 10 player(IMO there is a significant chance of this being the case). You keep your options open... and you all but ensure you will be having a monster center for the foreseeable future. + you give yourself a chance to draft one of the premier wings coming into the draft in 2019. Cam Reddish, RJ Barrett, Zion... I can see all of them fitting real well with both Mitchell-Gobert and Mitchell-Ayton core...

I'm not saying what you are saying is dumb, I just wouldn't like it.

Yeah, but if you wait a year to trade him, you are risking a depreciation in value. He might have a so-so rookie year as a backup. With a guy who has as much hype as him, expectations will be high. And like you said, there is a chance he might be top 10. Gobert has already had a season where he had top 10 impact and that was just w/ George Hill and Gordon Hayward w/ Boris Diaw as his starting PF.

I also think at some point you have to look at what you have and say "Ok, we are doing this thing w/ this core" rather than just delaying that moment in favor of more youth/possible potential.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Or, other option, draft Jaren Jackson Jr who might actually be able to play the 4 and might be better than Ayton.

 

[spycam1]

The really interesting question would be what if the Jazz drafted 5th (probably the least likely position for them to draft in tbh) and Doncic/Bagley/Young/Porter are all off the board. Obviously Ayton at 5 is a ridiculously good pick, but not really for the Jazz. I can't imagine Ayton would be happy being a projectd backup for at least his first 3 years in the NBA.

What could the Jazz get for Ayton? If the Hornets were picking 10th, would they give up Kemba Walker and the 10th pick to draft Ayton (Jazz put in Rubio to salary match)?

I just can't see this situation actually happening. No way Ayton falls to 5. If the Jazz are lucky enough to be in a position to draft Ayton, then other top prospects who fit better with Rudy will also be available.

Sent from my SM-G930P using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just can't see this situation actually happening. No way Ayton falls to 5. If the Jazz are lucky enough to be in a position to draft Ayton, then other top prospects who fit better with Rudy will also be available.

Sent from my SM-G930P using JazzFanz mobile app

Yes, probably the most unlikely draft scenario imaginable since getting the 4th or 5th pick would be the most unlikely pick for the Jazz to get unless they really tank. I still think the ceiling (or floor) for them to get to is the 7th best odds.

 

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Yes, probably the most unlikely draft scenario imaginable since getting the 4th or 5th pick would be the most unlikely pick for the Jazz to get unless they really tank. I still think the ceiling (or floor) for them to get to is the 7th best odds.

I mean.. 11 of the next 16 are on the road and we are 3-17 on the road so far on the road... it doesn't seem to matter the quality of opposition. We are just bad on the road. We might lose 13 of the next 16 and be at about .339 winning percentage ... this is about no. 5-no.6 lottery position. Then the trade deadline comes and DL might have a legit case for trading most pieces that are not part of the future of this team but still help us win some games.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I mean.. 11 of the next 16 are on the road and we are 3-17 on the road so far on the road... it doesn't seem to matter the quality of opposition. We are just bad on the road. We might lose 13 of the next 16 and be at about .339 winning percentage ... this is about no. 5-no.6 lottery position.

Yes but the schedule will eventually get easier, Gobert will come back, and they will win the games against the likes of the Mavs/Lakers/Suns/Grizzlies. I just don't see it finishing below the 7th odds. They might dip below it for a stretch, but not the end.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And the Jazz just nearly beat a playoff team on the road, so they are on a slight uptick.

 

[Revolution 9]

Jazz now tied with Charlotte for the 10th/11th pick.

#TakeNote

I dont think we go any lower than that. I predict we draft 11 or 12. With Gobert coming back, and a softer schedule we will get more wins.