2011 Draft - Who don't you want?

[NUMBERICA]

Not afraid of them, don't hate them. Nice try though.

Euros just have too strong a track record of not being able to adjust to the US style game. Especially bigs.

It's a whole lot better than American white players' track record. And just because there hasn't been anything good IN A WHILE (except for Marc Gasol, WHOOPS), doesn't mean there hasn't or won't. When you compare the rate of European to American Draftees and the rate that players don't make it, Europeans hardly fare worse than Americans anyway. But don't worry, I can tell you're here to be taken seriously.

 

[SojoDave]

No to...Walker, Leonard, Singler, Bismack, Hamilton and the Morris twins.

 

[JohnStockalypse]

It's a whole lot better than American white players' track record. And just because there hasn't been anything good IN A WHILE (except for Marc Gasol, WHOOPS), doesn't mean there hasn't or won't. When you compare the rate of European to American Draftees and the rate that players don't make it, Europeans hardly fare worse than Americans anyway. But don't worry, I can tell you're here to be taken seriously.

It has to do with the style of ball and competition level they grow up playing in. American players are MUCh more likely to develop into stars partly due to being used to and able to compete in the NBA style game. The best players come from the US and grow up playing each other. The talent level in Europe is much lower.

 

[LjJazzman]

However, you cannot ignore the fact that many foreigners have fallen flat on their faces. AK, Darko, Fess, Radmo, Wang XuXu, Yao, Thiago Splitter, and Raul Lopez all come to mind. Some struggled with the culture. Some struggled with the speed. Some were never scouted properly. And some didn't have the durability to survive a full fledged kick *** physical grueling American 82 game season.

What the hell is wrong with you?

For every bad european player you can list 40 bad American players. How in the hell do you but AK, Yao on that list? Saying a player wont make it because they are euro or foreign is ridiculous. I don't know why anyone wasted a draft pick Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobli, Toni Kukoc, Detlef Schrempf, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Peja Stojakovic, Pau Gasol, Vlade Divac, Dikembe Mutumbo, Zydrunas Ilgauska, Tim Duncan, or Hakeem Olajuwon.

 

[The Thriller]

Wow, really? Before Pau got there, the Fakers were perennial 2nd round losers. After he arrives? Two titles and one other finals appearance.

I find this kind of thinking incredibly curious.

The Lakers haven't won a title without a very good center. Without Bynum, or had the Celtics had Perkins, they wouldn't have won it last year.

 

[The Thriller]

What the hell is wrong with you?

For every bad european player you can list 40 bad American players. How in the hell do you but AK, Yao on that list? Saying a player wont make it because they are euro or foreign is ridiculous. I don't know why anyone wasted a draft pick Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobli, Toni Kukoc, Detlef Schrempf, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Peja Stojakovic, Pau Gasol, Vlade Divac, Dikembe Mutumbo, Zydrunas Ilgauska, Tim Duncan, or Hakeem Olajuwon.

That's the problem with some of you. You jump to conclusions. From one extreme to the other.

I didn't say DON'T DRAFT ANY EURO. I did however say that we should be very careful when drafting them. We don't know how they'll adapt to the culture here. We don't know if they'll learn English. We don't know if they're only looking good against poor competition. The euro style of play is so much different than the American it's not even funny. Even the key is different.

Drafting foreign is very risky folks. Lets be careful.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

What the hell is wrong with you?

For every bad european player you can list 40 bad American players. How in the hell do you but AK, Yao on that list? Saying a player wont make it because they are euro or foreign is ridiculous. I don't know why anyone wasted a draft pick Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobli, Toni Kukoc, Detlef Schrempf, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Peja Stojakovic, Pau Gasol, Vlade Divac, Dikembe Mutumbo, Zydrunas Ilgauska, Tim Duncan, or Hakeem Olajuwon.

I don't buy into the 'European players are soft' argument, but to be fair, Nash, Duncan, Mutumbo, and Olajuwon played (I think) four years D1 NCAA basketball at pretty good basketball schools (except maybe Santa Clara). (Also, Nash, Mutumbo, Duncan, Olajuwon were not European. Are we talking 'non-US' here or strictly 'European?')

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

The Lakers haven't won a title without a very good center. Without Bynum, or had the Celtics had Perkins, they wouldn't have won it last year.

Rank speculation. You don't know that. What we do know is that until Gasol arrived, the Lakers were an almost guaranteed early playoff exit team. After he arrived, the Lakers won two titles and lost in 7 games in the championship. AND nobody disputes that Gasol was the #2 player on the team during the Laker's 3-year championship run.

So what if he's 'soft?' BFD. I'm sorry but you really seem to be missing the forest for the trees here.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

That's the problem with some of you. You jump to conclusions. From one extreme to the other.

I didn't say DON'T DRAFT ANY EURO. I did however say that we should be very careful when drafting them. We don't know how they'll adapt to the culture here. We don't know if they'll learn English. We don't know if they're only looking good against poor competition. The euro style of play is so much different than the American it's not even funny. Even the key is different.

Drafting foreign is very risky folks. Lets be careful.

Not to belabor, but the success rate for drafting American is also a huge risk, as evidenced by the quite high failure rate of high draftees who make an impact. This is actually not merely a question of perception or opinion, it's actually an empirical question. Anyone got numbers to test this assertion? I'm quite skeptical that once we look at the numbers, they're actually as bad as you think they are. But like you, I'm only guessing.

 

[gregbroncs]

At 3 I don't want anybody but Kanter, D Williams, or Irving.

At 12 I don't want Jimmer

 

[billyshelby]

Not to belabor, but the success rate for drafting American is also a huge risk, as evidenced by the quite high failure rate of high draftees who make an impact. This is actually not merely a question of perception or opinion, it's actually an empirical question. Anyone got numbers to test this assertion? I'm quite skeptical that once we look at the numbers, they're actually as bad as you think they are. But like you, I'm only guessing.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraft2.htm

A 2006 analysis of NBA Lottery Draft picks from 84 - 2003. There are obviously subjective components. At 11-14, the Euro vs College Guy debate is worthless. Nearly every guy was American.

The bottom line is anybody we draft at 12 historically has a 50% chance of straight busting. The puppy dogs and ice cream outlook says scouting has gotten better and the results have improved. Not so sure I'd buy that.

I'm not necessarily advocating this, but drafting a Euro you know is going to stay overseas in a weak draft has its practical advantages. So long as the guy doesn't regress, he retains his trade value and you don't start his salary clock. But, of course, you don't get a player for next year's team.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It has to do with the style of ball and competition level they grow up playing in. American players are MUCh more likely to develop into stars partly due to being used to and able to compete in the NBA style game. The best players come from the US and grow up playing each other. The talent level in Europe is much lower.

Your first point is a whole lot of jabbering, but the last point is true depending on how you look at it (how do you define "talent"? Is it an innate skill and a lot of people never find their's, is it something developed, or is it some of both? How can you quantify that anyway?). The bottom line is that the bust-rate on Europeans drafted isn't any higher than that of American-born players because a very small percentage in any draft come from overseas anyway. If over the course of 5 years there are 20 Europeans drafted and 4 come over and don't bust, that's as good as the rate that American's bust.

One other thing, how do you define what nationality is okay and what isn't? Is this a European thing or anything non-American? Because the latter is xenophobia whether you want to dismiss that or not. For the record, Turkey isn't in Europe, and neither is Congo.

I'm scared I'm going to end up being baited into some statistical waste-of-time. Oh well.

 

[Mongoose]

There's no way in hell Jimmer's the BPA at 12...

 

[billyshelby]

I am very unexcited about Kemba Walker. He ranks atop my list of guys I will struggle greatly to talk myself into at 3. Nearly every other candidate is more soft and cuddly to me.

At 12, I have an incredibly difficult time. Since I'm not in love with most of the so-called 'safe' picks -- Singleton, Thompson, Jimmer, Hamilton, etc. -- I'd probably be more excited if we traded down for a 'reach' guy like Selby, Donatas, Tyler. My personal preference might be a guy like Mirotic or Bertrans who gets stashed, but not at 12.

I'm pretty much at the point where if the 12 doesn't turn into Biyombo or JV, I don't want the guys who will be there.

 

[NCJazz]

I am very unexcited about Kemba Walker. He ranks atop my list of guys I will struggle greatly to talk myself into at 3. Nearly every other candidate is more soft and cuddly to me.

At 12, I have an incredibly difficult time. Since I'm not in love with most of the so-called 'safe' picks -- Singleton, Thompson, Jimmer, Hamilton, etc. -- I'd probably be more excited if we traded down for a 'reach' guy like Selby, Donatas, Tyler. My personal preference might be a guy like Mirotic or Bertrans who gets stashed, but not at 12.

I'm pretty much at the point where if the 12 doesn't turn into Biyombo or JV, I don't want the guys who will be there.

I kind of imagine that the agent for Mirotic either wants to be picked top 10 or picked in the second round where you can actually be paid more than most first round picks. I would love to get an early second round pick if he is still on the board.

 

[NUMBERICA]

My list: The Jo Bro, Motiejunas.

Most of these picks I could be patient with at the right slot, I just don't like either of those players (I just don't like Jimmer's game or the absurd crap that surrounds it, and I think Motiejunas will crumble). Kemba at 3 is a nightmare I've been forced to consider.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I kind of imagine that the agent for Mirotic either wants to be picked top 10 or picked in the second round where you can actually be paid more than most first round picks. I would love to get an early second round pick if he is still on the board.

I'm not sure, is he still IN the draft? He just extended through the 2016 season with a buyout that is in the $3 million range (not workable).

 

[Jazz4ever]

I am very unexcited about Kemba Walker. He ranks atop my list of guys I will struggle greatly to talk myself into at 3. Nearly every other candidate is more soft and cuddly to me.

At 12, I have an incredibly difficult time. Since I'm not in love with most of the so-called 'safe' picks -- Singleton, Thompson, Jimmer, Hamilton, etc. -- I'd probably be more excited if we traded down for a 'reach' guy like Selby, Donatas, Tyler. My personal preference might be a guy like Mirotic or Bertrans who gets stashed, but not at 12.

I'm pretty much at the point where if the 12 doesn't turn into Biyombo or JV, I don't want the guys who will be there.

I feel the same as you at 12. Singleton is a nice defender, but will his three point shot translate to NBA range to be a starting 3? If not we have a slightly larger Ronnie Brewer
Fredette is obviously not worth 12. Donatas is probably Bargs 2.0. Morris twins....meh after their shooting drills at the combine.

At 20 though I am interested in couple guys. Reggie Jackson is a baseball player, but he is also a super long, athletic PG that shot 42% from 3's his junior year. Davis Bertrans might be a soft euro, but is a pure shooter and can put the ball on the floor.

 

[AlaskanAssassin]

Kemba Walker (Poor man's Allen Iverson, not a point guard)
Jonas Valanciunas (Too Risky to wait for him to come over)
Kawhi Leonard (Best case he is Mbah a Moute, some say Gerald Wallace but I don't see it)
Bismack Biyombo (It scares me whenever draft prospects come out of nowhere like this plus he's probably 38 years old)

I think I'd be okay with most other reasonable choices. I'd prefer Kanter over Knight, then trade Sap.

 

[NCJazz]

I feel the same as you at 12. Singleton is a nice defender, but will his three point shot translate to NBA range to be a starting 3? If not we have a slightly larger Ronnie Brewer
Fredette is obviously not worth 12. Donatas is probably Bargs 2.0. Morris twins....meh after their shooting drills at the combine.

At 20 though I am interested in couple guys. Reggie Jackson is a baseball player, but he is also a super long, athletic PG that shot 42% from 3's his junior year. Davis Bertrans might be a soft euro, but is a pure shooter and can put the ball on the floor.

Why is Fredette not worth the 12th pick? Also at the 12th pick a Bargnani clone would not be good?