Much of the discussion on who the Jazz should select with their 3rd pick centered on drafting a big (Kanter) vs. a PG (Knight), with both being consensus top-5 picks. Much was said about their upside, fit, strengths and weaknesses. The truth is that we have no clue how good they will be in this league. However, past drafts give us some idea how PGs and bigs drafted in the top-5 fared in the NBA overall.
In 1998-2008 10 point guards were selected in the top 5 (excluding Jay Williams and Livingston, whose careers were destroyed by the freak catastrophic injuries): Bibby, Francis, Davis, Harris, Williams, Paul, Felton, Conley, Rose, Westbrook. 7 All-Stars and 3 very solid starters, top-3 on their teams - Bibby, Felton, Conley. Conclusion: the NBA scouts and GMs are very good in evaluating point guards in the draft: a consensus top-5 player is almost certain to turn out a star, no possibility of a bust whatsoever.
In 1998-2008 27 bigs went in the top 5: 7 All-Stars (Brand, Gasol, Ming, Bosh, Howard, Martin, Horford) 6 very solid starters (Odom, Chandler, Okafor, Bogut, Aldridge, Beasley) and 14 borderline starters/bench players/out of the league. Given their high draft selection we can register all of them as "busts" (Curry, Oden, Gooden, Olowokandi, La Frentz, Bender, Swift, Fizer, Brown, Skita, Darko, Marvin Williams, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams). Conclusion: it is hard for GMs to predict how well highly touted bigs would transition to the NBA: your chances for success are 50/50.
But Kanter is not a regular consensus top-5 player in the draft - he belongs to a smaller group of bigs who were selected top-5 without any significant NCAA or quality professional basketball experience. There were only 6 of them : Howard, Brown, Darko, Skita, Curry, Bender. One All-Star and five busts. Obviously, the NBA GMs are terrible at judging bigs based only on their play in the high school/ youth tournaments/ bad professional leagues - the chance of success is only 16%.
But maybe the Jazz are better than the rest of the NBA in scouting highly hyped bigs? Not really: they had three 1st round picks - Borchardt, Hoffa (they wanted to draft him originally and soon got him via trade), and Koufus. None of them turned out to be an NBA player at all.
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." In drafting a PG (Knight) the Jazz most likely would acquire an All-Star, in drafting a big based on his high school/youth tournaments PG (Kanter) the Jazz would most likely get a total bust or a flawed bench player.
The only teams who can afford to go after high risk/high rewards bigs are the ones that get high lottery picks year after year (Minnesota, the Wizards, the Clippers). Eventually you will get someone and a superstar 4/5 is much more important than a superstar point guard. But, if you are a quality team that very rarely gets a top-3 pick, go after a sure thing, you cannot afford to miss. Detroit learned it the hard way in 2003.
In 1998-2008 10 point guards were selected in the top 5 (excluding Jay Williams and Livingston, whose careers were destroyed by the freak catastrophic injuries): Bibby, Francis, Davis, Harris, Williams, Paul, Felton, Conley, Rose, Westbrook. 7 All-Stars and 3 very solid starters, top-3 on their teams - Bibby, Felton, Conley. Conclusion: the NBA scouts and GMs are very good in evaluating point guards in the draft: a consensus top-5 player is almost certain to turn out a star, no possibility of a bust whatsoever.
In 1998-2008 27 bigs went in the top 5: 7 All-Stars (Brand, Gasol, Ming, Bosh, Howard, Martin, Horford) 6 very solid starters (Odom, Chandler, Okafor, Bogut, Aldridge, Beasley) and 14 borderline starters/bench players/out of the league. Given their high draft selection we can register all of them as "busts" (Curry, Oden, Gooden, Olowokandi, La Frentz, Bender, Swift, Fizer, Brown, Skita, Darko, Marvin Williams, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams). Conclusion: it is hard for GMs to predict how well highly touted bigs would transition to the NBA: your chances for success are 50/50.
But Kanter is not a regular consensus top-5 player in the draft - he belongs to a smaller group of bigs who were selected top-5 without any significant NCAA or quality professional basketball experience. There were only 6 of them : Howard, Brown, Darko, Skita, Curry, Bender. One All-Star and five busts. Obviously, the NBA GMs are terrible at judging bigs based only on their play in the high school/ youth tournaments/ bad professional leagues - the chance of success is only 16%.
But maybe the Jazz are better than the rest of the NBA in scouting highly hyped bigs? Not really: they had three 1st round picks - Borchardt, Hoffa (they wanted to draft him originally and soon got him via trade), and Koufus. None of them turned out to be an NBA player at all.
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." In drafting a PG (Knight) the Jazz most likely would acquire an All-Star, in drafting a big based on his high school/youth tournaments PG (Kanter) the Jazz would most likely get a total bust or a flawed bench player.
The only teams who can afford to go after high risk/high rewards bigs are the ones that get high lottery picks year after year (Minnesota, the Wizards, the Clippers). Eventually you will get someone and a superstar 4/5 is much more important than a superstar point guard. But, if you are a quality team that very rarely gets a top-3 pick, go after a sure thing, you cannot afford to miss. Detroit learned it the hard way in 2003.
