Oh Good! A War With Iran!

[Deleted member 365]

Now the US is saying an Iranian boat fired a missile at an American drone, and missed, prior to the tanker attacks:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/politics/us-drone-tracked-iranian-boats/index.html

We know Bolton is a warmonger all the way. Trump has been pissed at him in the past, from what I've read, was not crazy about the Venezuelan debacle for one thing. It sure doesn't help having Bolton so high up in the chain where our foreign policy is concerned. Especially since this has the potential to be the Greater Mideast War.

Michael Klare outlined what could develop out of this hot spot:

"A Third Gulf War would distinguish itself from recent Middle Eastern conflicts by the geographic span of the fighting and the number of major actors that might become involved. In all likelihood, the field of battle would stretch from the shores of the Mediterranean, where Lebanon abuts Israel, to the Strait of Hormuz, where the Persian Gulf empties into the Indian Ocean. Participants could include, on one side, Iran, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and assorted Shia militias in Iraq and Yemen; and, on the other, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). If the fighting in Syria were to get out of hand, Russian forces could even become involved.

All of these forces have been equipping themselves with massive arrays of modern weaponry in recent years, ensuring that any fighting will be intense, bloody, and horrifically destructive. Iran has been acquiring an assortment of modern weapons from Russia and possesses its own substantial arms industry. It, in turn, has been supplying the Assad regime with modern arms and is suspected of shipping an array of missiles and other munitions to Hezbollah. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have long been major recipients of tens of billions of dollars of sophisticated American weaponry and President Trump has promised to supply them with so much more."(see: http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176422/tomgram:_michael_klare,_the_road_to_hell_in_the_middle_east/ )

Yikes...

 

[Gameface]

Reduced supply + threats to the supply chain = higher prices. Especially when your spot in that supply chain is shrinking world-wide. I'm not saying I think they did it but to say it was beyond reason is just wrong.

But the gains are outweighed by the risks, aren't they?
The only way I can see Iran doing this is if they are perfectly willing to be attacked by the U.S.. If they are inviting an attack I'd think long and hard if I were the U.S. military about why they would do that.

 

[framer]

But the gains are outweighed by the risks, aren't they?
The only way I can see Iran doing this is if they are perfectly willing to be attacked by the U.S.. If they are inviting an attack I'd think long and hard if I were the U.S. military about why they would do that.

Are you counting Iran as a perfectly rational actor? It is highly possible that they might not be. They have been subsidizing all kinds of killing against American interests, and outside of the sanctions that were lifted under Obama, have faced almost no repercussions. They probably ascribe that to "God's Will."

Here's a question, if Iran IS bombing ships in the Strait what is the proper action to take?

 

[Gameface]

Are you counting Iran as a perfectly rational actor? It is highly possible that they might not be. They have been subsidizing all kinds of killing against American interests, and outside of the sanctions that were lifted under Obama, have faced almost no repercussions. They probably ascribe that to "God's Will."

Here's a question, if Iran IS bombing ships in the Strait what is the proper action to take?

The proper action to take is to understand what they hope to gain by giving the U.S. justification for a military strike.

The idea you put forward, that they are irrational and that their religion inclines them to national suicide is incorrect. Try again.

 

[One Brow]

The idea you put forward, that they are irrational and that their religion inclines them to national suicide is incorrect. Try again.

You have forgotten they are NOT LIKE US. If they were rational, they would be just like us.

[/sarcasm]

 

[Deleted member 365]

Iran’s not stupid. They know that world opinion isn’t on America’s side right now. No one supports regime change other than a few chicken hawks in America and Israel. But world support could change quickly if they do something stupid, like attack cargo ships coming out of the gulf.

Most importantly, hard to see Russia, Iran’s ally, permitting an attack like this. Putin doesn’t want the United States sniffing in his sphere of Influence.

Now the Japanese cargo ship’s owner says that the ship was attacked by something from the air. Could it have been terrorists? Sure maybe. Iran’s government actually ordering this attack/mining of the trading route? Doubt it.

I’m very distrusting of Pompeo’s claim that Iran did this. It’s not just because this regime lies about everything, including trivial matters, like its inauguration size. This story just doesn’t pass the smell test

 

[Zombie]

I'm sure we can trust our commander in chief to handle this situation appropriately.



Or not.

 

[LogGrad98]

But the gains are outweighed by the risks, aren't they?
The only way I can see Iran doing this is if they are perfectly willing to be attacked by the U.S.. If they are inviting an attack I'd think long and hard if I were the U.S. military about why they would do that.

Yeah the risk/reward ratio is probably way off, but it wouldn't be the first time a country like Iran did something insane.

 

[framer]

The proper action to take is to understand what they hope to gain by giving the U.S. justification for a military strike.

The idea you put forward, that they are irrational and that their religion inclines them to national suicide is incorrect. Try again.

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

 

[framer]

Iran’s not stupid. They know that world opinion isn’t on America’s side right now. No one supports regime change other than a few chicken hawks in America and Israel. But world support could change quickly if they do something stupid, like attack cargo ships coming out of the gulf.

Most importantly, hard to see Russia, Iran’s ally, permitting an attack like this. Putin doesn’t want the United States sniffing in his sphere of Influence.

Now the Japanese cargo ship’s owner says that the ship was attacked by something from the air. Could it have been terrorists? Sure maybe. Iran’s government actually ordering this attack/mining of the trading route? Doubt it.

I’m very distrusting of Pompeo’s claim that Iran did this. It’s not just because this regime lies about everything, including trivial matters, like its inauguration size. This story just doesn’t pass the smell test

Likely, Iran would have ordered the "hit" through a cutout. Just like they have used Hamas as a proxy in the past. Raising oil priced are essential to Iran AND to Russia, as well as just general instability in the region. What price did Putin pay for Russian troops operating "without cover" in the Ukraine? Mining a few ships isn't a difficult task to complete. Proving who did it without a doubt probably is. If it is found to be Iranians, they will probably be "arrested" and put to death by the Iranian regime without anyone having a chance to question them.

 

[Gameface]

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

I have nothing figured out. What I've advocated for in this thread is figuring it out before acting.

You have an adversary that you are accusing of a provocative series of actions that if true would almost certainly warrant a military response.

So, if you're the U.S. military, U.S. intelligence, U.S. executive branch, and you know you're not making this stuff up, well, then you have to wonder. You have to ask yourself why a vastly inferior power, like Iran, would invite a military strike from the most powerful military force in the history of mankind. You MUST ask that question and you MUST give all potential answers serious consideration.

Iran is aligned with Russia outright. So you must consider in this what Russia might gain or lose, why they might sign off on a oil tanker sabotage campaign by Iran.

But there is this thing, this loose alliance, that I've been very concerned about for many years. It is called BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and China. This is a group of nations that want to unseat the U.S. as the sole world superpower.

So you have Iran acting badly... OK. You have this group of nations that represents I think more than 1/3 of the world population, who wants to trip you up, trick you, lure you into a devastating error. You don't just go swinging your dick around because you're so ****ing sure you're the biggest and baddest **** around. This isn't about brute force alone. You have to understand your enemy better than your enemy understands you. And I don't think we do. I think we're an open book and we are underestimating our opposition.

So when a minor player on the side of BRIC starts taking actions that warrant a military response I think it is absolutely essential to understand why they might want to egg us on. Why they might want to take the blow we might deliver.

Let us not be fools. Let us not stumble over our own arrogance.

 

[One Brow]

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

That was a miscalculation based on misunderstood communications with Bush 41's team, IIRC.