Is Iran doing this now?
Sanctions weren't rippling Iran before the nuclear agreement, and with the treaty meaning many of our previous sanction partners are no longer applying sanctions, this is even less true now.
Oh Good! A War With Iran!
- Thread starter Gameface
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Is Iran doing this now?
Sanctions weren't rippling Iran before the nuclear agreement, and with the treaty meaning many of our previous sanction partners are no longer applying sanctions, this is even less true now.
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
First I've read that. Where are you getting this? My source is the IMF.
A lot of people are saying this, but I have trouble seeing the cause-and-effect here. If sanctions are hurting Iran so badly this time, why were they so ineffective the first time? How do we know Iran's economic troubles aren't just another economic swing?
I didn't know enough about the Middle East at the time to know any different, so I believed the government had the necessary intel to know what they are doing. I was naïve, obviously. My best friend at the time was totally opposed to the war, and I remember that my main argument was that they must know what they are doing. She insisted that we were making a terrible mistake. As I recall, she was the only one I knew who believed that.
I had seen the movie "Black Hawk Down" in 2001, I think, and I understood that we had made a mistake thinking we could fix Somalia because we didn't understand tribal issues, and I do recall wondering if Iraq was similar. But I still trusted Bush and company.
Some of the atheist/skeptical blogs I read (Pharyngula, Dispatches from the Culture Wars, etc.) felt the evidence Secretary Powell presented was unconvincing. They couldn't say with certainty that the war was unjustified, but they did say they hadn't seen a justification.
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure you aren't trolling here...
Why do you think Obama's sanctions didn't do anything? How is the cause and effect of going from 2.8 mmbpd exports to about one million not obvious?
They are clearly hurting Iran. If you want to talk about effectiveness i.e. regime change, well, I don't know that they'll ever do much in that regard. It seems the opposite outcome happens with deeper entrenched regimes lasting what seems like forever. Kim's, Castros, Iran, those people all seem to have rallied around their flags (and thus regimes) from external pressure in the form of economic sanctions.
Most of the news reports seem to be repeating what the government says, so I'm not sure how reliable they are.
How many years was Iran under sanctions before the nuclear deal? While I am sure Iran was glad to relieve sanctions, was that really the main impetus for their agreeing to the treaty? Trump's sanctions seem to have a number of exceptions, so wouldn't they be even less effective on hurting the economy?
Red
Well-Known Member
https://slate.com/news-and-politics...ed-out-troops-middle-east-uranium-tehran.html
"The Trump administration, already suffering from a serious credibility deficit with allies, is now in the awkward position of demanding that Tehran comply with an agreement the American president has not only derided, but pulled out of! “Administration officials found themselves Monday grappling with whether to press the remaining parties to the deal, including Britain, France and Germany, to demand that Iran stay in compliance,” the Associated Press reports. “They must also consider if such a stance would essentially concede that the restrictions imposed during the Obama administration, while short of ideal, are better than none.”
It’s almost like the previous administration weighed up the pros and cons and made a decision in the best strategic interest of the country. That feeling you have right now is nostalgia for competence."
"The Trump administration, already suffering from a serious credibility deficit with allies, is now in the awkward position of demanding that Tehran comply with an agreement the American president has not only derided, but pulled out of! “Administration officials found themselves Monday grappling with whether to press the remaining parties to the deal, including Britain, France and Germany, to demand that Iran stay in compliance,” the Associated Press reports. “They must also consider if such a stance would essentially concede that the restrictions imposed during the Obama administration, while short of ideal, are better than none.”
It’s almost like the previous administration weighed up the pros and cons and made a decision in the best strategic interest of the country. That feeling you have right now is nostalgia for competence."
idestroyedthetoilet
Well-Known Member
You understand are bringing the skepticism of a quack author here? It's kinda funny having you sound like @Eenie-Meenie or @babe has hacked your account. Careful, they might fall in love reading this from you
Do you have any reason to not believe something that is universally accepted, and for solid reasons? Claiming the sanctions aren't working now or haven't in the past is simply absurdity.
I'm not taking the current words from a fanatical religious country over the US intelligence agencies. Iran threatened to do this.
“America should know that we are selling our oil and will continue to sell our oil and they are not able to stop our oil exports. If one day they want to prevent the export of Iran’s oil, then no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf,”. -President Rouhani
Since 1979. Sanction isn't a blanket term. Sanctions are not all equal. Obama's were draconian. Trump's moreso.
The ability to refine uranium on their own soil, getting them closer to their goal of having warheads within ten years.
For this question to have merit, the humanitarian exceptions and oil export exceptions would have to allow a large enough amount of trade to render the loss of 1.8 mmbpd, or 65% of all oil exports, a drop in the bucket. They aren't.
Plus, Trump did not renew the waivers China and other countries were importing Iranian oil under. That was on April 22 and exports are set to drop even further. These attacks followed, just as Iran threatened. For context on why now: Oil exports in March: 1.86 mmbpd. Oil exports in April: 938 kbpd. Even China went along with the waivers expiring by dropping imports by over 1/2 m-o-m.
I'm still waiting on where you are getting this. You don't normally make strong claims without good reason so I went searching. I found nothing.
Here's some light reading on the effects: https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.radiofarda.com/amp/29901117.html
As convenient as that would be, it's unlikely.
Thank you for the lesson. I only had one objection.
To my recollection, they were refining uranium before the treaty. In fact, didn't we attack their centrifuges via virus for just that reason?
Red
Well-Known Member
US drone shot down....
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iran-us-drone-shot-down-latest-intl/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iran-us-drone-shot-down-latest-intl/index.html