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Some 2019-20 team projections

I

idiot

Well-Known Member
Early August, and I’m kind of bored, so I ran some projection numbers for how the Jazz might compare this coming year to last year, given the changed roster.

Assumptions will appear in subsequent posts. All figures based on Basketball Reference data. The ’18-19 figures are given first, followed by projected ‘19-20 figures, then the ’18-19 league rank and what the ’19-20 projections would rank as in ’18-19 in parentheses. Your comments are welcome. Let me know if any of my assumptions are wildly inaccurate.

Ortg: 110.9, 115.0 (15th, 3rd). Not totally sure I trust this number, but I hope it turns out to be accurate. (I'm confident I calculated it correctly, though.)

TS%: 57.2, 59.0 (8th, 2nd)

3ptA/100: 33.8, 29.6 (10th, 20th). This seems to be a category that may be particularly influenced by the coach’s system, so the projections may be more wrong here than for other categories. In any case, it’s interesting that the number of attempts goes down.

3pt% 35.5, 37.5 (10th, 5th)

FTA/100: 25.3, 27.3 (4th, 2nd). A big surprise after losing Favors.

FT%: 73.6, 75.9 (26th, 20th)

2pt%: 54.1, 54.9 (5th, 4th)

Assists/100: 25.8, 25.9 (8th, 7th)

Steals/100: 8.0, 7.4 (10th, 16th)

Blocks/100: 5.8, 4.5 (2nd, 23rd)

We won’t be creating as much offense from defense this coming season.

TOV/100: 15.0, 14.4 (27th, 24th). This surprised me a bit. But based on the numbers, the only likely way we’re moving up much is if Donovan reduces his turnovers significantly (if he went from last season’s 4/100, to 3/100, for example, we could move up to about 10th or 11th in the league rank.)

ORB%: 22.9, 22.6 (13th, 16th)

DRB%: 80.3, 80.7 (1st, 1st)

The rebounding numbers again surprised me. I thought we’d take a significant hit. I guess the lack of difference is because our centers are so great at rebounding (Davis and Bradley are better than Favors and Udoh, for example).

EDIT: A few numbers above have been modified after I noticed I made a typo in my data in my Williams-Goss free throw attempt projection.
 
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Assumptions:

For assists, steals, blocks, and turnovers, I simply used last year’s rates/100 possessions as the basis of projections and then combined this with my expectation for modified total minutes played. For the three roster spots manned by rookies (I used Howard rather than Stanton-Kidd), I gave my best estimate based on summer league and international stats. Their contributions are so small that the estimations make little practical difference, however.



For rebounding percentages, I again used last year’s rates, except tweaking Bradley’s numbers a bit since he had such a small sample size.



In all cases where estimates were used, I tried to be realistic rather than optimistic.
 
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The shooting/scoring projections were based on what I considered realistic expectations/changes in shots-made and usage percentages from last year given player age, changing roles, and a new team ecosystem. (Maybe these are mildly optimistic, but I don’t think overly so). However, the projections use the same relative percentage of 3pt, 2pt, and FTs taken last year for each player. So for example if player X took 37% of shots as 3-pt attempts, 43% of shots as 2-pt attempts and 20% of shots as free throws, I used that same distribution multiplied by the projected modified usage and shots-made percentages as well as the number of expected minutes/games played.



First here’s my projections for games and minutes per game (based on 82 games x 5 players x 48 minutes). Injuries will surely mean that these end up wrong:

Mitchell: 75 games, 33 min/game
Gobert: 70, 32
Bogdanovic: 75, 31
Ingles: 75, 30
Conley: 70, 30
O’Neale: 75, 28
Exum: 50, 24
Green: 72, 23
Davis: 75, 21
Mudiay: 50, 14
Williams-Goss: 10, 13
Niang: 60, 10
Bradley: 20, 10
Howard: 6, 9
Oni: 8, 8
 
Next is my usage % projection (adds up to 100% usage when appropriately multiplied by percentage of total minutes played):

Mitchell: 27.2 (-4.4 compared to 2018-19)
Gobert: 20 (+2.2)
Bogdanovic: 22 (-0.4)
Ingles: 17 (-0.5)
Conley: 24 (-3.3)
O’Neale: 14 (+3.0)
Exum: 22 (+0.7)
Green: 18 (+.0.2)
Davis: 14 (+1.3)
Mudiay: 22 (-3.6)
Williams-Goss: 15
Niang: 19 (+1.2)
Bradley: 18 (-5.6)
Howard: 15
Oni: 11
 
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Finally, the projected 3-pt%, 2-pt%, and FT%, respectively, with change from last year in parentheses.

Mitchell: 38, 50, 81 (+ 1.8, +3.2, 0)
Gobert: NA, 68, 64 (NA, +1.1, 0)
Bogdanovic: 40, 54, 84 (-2.5, +0.2, +3.3)
Ingles: 40, 54, 78 (+0.9, +0.7, +7.3)
Conley: 38, 49, 85 (+1.6, +0.7, 0)
O’Neale: 37, 54, 75 (-1.6, -2.9, -1.2)
Exum: 30, 48, 79 (+1.0, +1.6, 0)
Green: 35, 57, 85 (+0.3, -1.6, -3.8)
Davis: NA, 61, 62 (NA, -1.0, 0)
Mudiay: 31, 51, 77 (-1.9, 1.8, 0)
Williams-Goss: 30, 40, 86
Niang: 40, 58, 83 (-1, +1.4, 0)
Bradley: NA, 52, 58 (NA, 2, 8)
Howard: 32, 48, 79
Oni: 32, 42, 77
 
One more thing: the per game scoring averages according to my assumptions/calculations should project to:

20.5 Mitchell
17.9 Gobert
17.0 Conley
16.8 Bogdanovic
12.4 Ingles
11.3 Exum
10.0 Green
9.0 O’Neale
7.4 Davis
6.7 Mudiay
4.7 Niang
3.8 Bradley
3.7 Williams-Goss
3.1 Oni
2.9 Howard

If Donovan’s scoring average decreases, as this projection says, maybe my expectations for minutes/usage are too democratic. But if his average rises, I think it’s likely to come in large part at the expense of Gobert, Conley, and/or Bogdanovic’s scoring averages. Which of these have I projected too high?
 
Not that this has anything to do with the post but someone will bring up defense and favors.
I'm not saying favors is bad defensively because it's a collective thing at the same time.... but before someone says "our defense is going to suffer without favors," let me remind you that 2 years ago gobert went down and we were 2 games away from being dead last in the league. Gobert came back and we were the hottest team in the league.

Point is, we will be fine without favors.
 
Shad said:
Not that this has anything to do with the post but someone will bring up defense and favors.
I'm not saying favors is bad defensively because it's a collective thing at the same time.... but before someone says "our defense is going to suffer without favors," let me remind you that 2 years ago gobert went down and we were 2 games away from being dead last in the league. Gobert came back and we were the hottest team in the league.

Point is, we will be fine without favors.
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Good point. Gobert is as close to a cheat code as you can come on defense.

I do worry, though, that even with Gobert it's not guaranteed to be that simple (it could indeed work out just fine, of course, as I hope it does). Even with Gobert, defense is a team endeavor and takes both real effort and chemistry among the other players. If these somehow don't come together, the defense could slip.

In any event, if my projections are accurate, Gobert will be off the court for 43% of all total minutes. While I generally like what the Jazz have defensively aside from Gobert, the point is that it is not all Gobert.
 
I think maybe the concern with defense may also be less about the effect on defense overall, but more about the Jazz's vulnerability to a few specific players, namely Lebron, AD, Kawhi, and perhaps Giannis.

Favors, Crowder, and Sefolosha at least gave the Jazz a few physically tough and willing bodies to throw at these most rugged and long forwards. Green, Bogdanovic, and Davis are perhaps a bit more limited (in toughness, physical strength/length, and versatility, respectively).

The other worry defensively is with Conley's much lower switchability/versatility/ability to guard the tougher backcourt player compared to Rubio. It's an open question whether Conley is a better overall defender than Rubio, but it's quite likely he's not as able to make Donovan's defensive life easier to the same extent that Rubio did.

Hopefully, these worries are overblown. Quin should be able to develop a system that works for the new team composition.
 
Idiot, ever thought about getting your PhD? This could be a nice little quantitative dissertation.
 
idiot said:
I think maybe the concern with defense may also be less about the effect on defense overall, but more about the Jazz's vulnerability to a few specific players, namely Lebron, AD, Kawhi, and perhaps Giannis.

Favors, Crowder, and Sefolosha at least gave the Jazz a few physically tough and willing bodies to throw at these most rugged and long forwards. Green, Bogdanovic, and Davis are perhaps a bit more limited (in toughness, physical strength/length, and versatility, respectively).

The other worry defensively is with Conley's much lower switchability/versatility/ability to guard the tougher backcourt player compared to Rubio. It's an open question whether Conley is a better overall defender than Rubio, but it's quite likely he's not as able to make Donovan's defensive life easier to the same extent that Rubio did.

Hopefully, these worries are overblown. Quin should be able to develop a system that works for the new team composition.
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The perfect complement to the Jazz's starting rotation this year would be an athletic defender who dedicates himself to hounding primary offensive players. In a perfect world, this would be Scottie Pippen, obviously, but the question is how well guys like Royce and Jeff Green step up and try to play that role. Not that I want to count on Exum for anything, but he could be a factor as well.

Yeah, I'm a bit concerned that Conley could get picked on in switches. He's a good enough positional defender and he's quick enough that he won't get blown by, but guys will shoot over him.
 
Catchall said:
The perfect complement to the Jazz's starting rotation this year would be an athletic defender who dedicates himself to hounding primary offensive players. In a perfect world, this would be Scottie Pippen, obviously, but the question is how well guys like Royce and Jeff Green step up and try to play that role. Not that I want to count on Exum for anything, but he could be a factor as well.

Yeah, I'm a bit concerned that Conley could get picked on in switches. He's a good enough positional defender and he's quick enough that he won't get blown by, but guys will shoot over him.
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I don't worry about guys shooting over him.
It's hard to shoot over a guy who is right up in your space even with a good height advantage.

People always said that guys could just shoot over neto get it wasn't true. He would stay right in their space and they would try to shoot over him and usually miss. Shots rarely get blocked.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
UB said:
I could tell from the thoroughness of your data analysis. What’s your doctorate in, btw?
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I'd rather not say, as I prefer to remain anonymous here, and identifying the field would be more information than I wish to give, but it's in a social science. I'm more qualitative in my research than quantitative, but enjoy using numbers occasionally.
 
idiot said:
I'd rather not say, as I prefer to remain anonymous here, and identifying the field would be more information than I wish to give, but it's in a social science. I'm more qualitative in my research than quantitative, but enjoy using numbers occasionally.
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Fair enough, cheers doc.
 
Shad said:
Not that this has anything to do with the post but someone will bring up defense and favors.
I'm not saying favors is bad defensively because it's a collective thing at the same time.... but before someone says "our defense is going to suffer without favors," let me remind you that 2 years ago gobert went down and we were 2 games away from being dead last in the league. Gobert came back and we were the hottest team in the league.

Point is, we will be fine without favors.
Click to expand...
Gobert helps a ton on defense and makes our defense elite.

But the stretch you are pointing to we went from the hardest schedule in the NBA with Gobert out to the easiest when he came back. That was a bigger factor. When Gobert went down earlier in that season we actually played better without him.
 
Ron Mexico said:
Gobert helps a ton on defense and makes our defense elite.

But the stretch you are pointing to we went from the hardest schedule in the NBA with Gobert out to the easiest when he came back. That was a bigger factor. When Gobert went down earlier in that season we actually played better without him.
Click to expand...

7-11 is better without him?
 
Shad said:
7-11 is better without him?
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Yes, they were worse before.

They were 5-12 with Gobert. Then the team started playing better when Gobert went down the first time.

We really struggled when he went down the second time but that was the hardest stretch of any team for any period of time in the NBA. Then he came back for the easiest stretch. Yes, Gobert coming back helped and lifted the team. But the schedule was a bigger part of a better record.
 
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