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The Official "Let's Vote Trump Out" Thread!

Arguing about polls is incredibly pointless. There's just too much that can happen between now and November to even make an educated guess.

As for 2016, the same thing held true. There was no way for polls to account for things like the DNC Wikileaks or Comey's announcement about Hillary's emails.

The real problem with polls are people who think they are meant to be predictive, and puff their chests out when they are "wrong."
 
And this:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/

Much maligned for their performance in the 2016 general election — and somewhat unfairly so, since the overall accuracy of the polls was only slightly below average that year by historical standards — American election polls have been quite accurate since then. Their performance was very strong in the 2018 midterms, despite the challenge of having to poll dozens of diverse congressional districts around the country, many of which had not had a competitive election in years. Polls have also generally been accurate in the various special elections and off-year gubernatorial elections that have occurred since 2016, even though those are also often difficult races to poll.
American election polls are about as accurate as they’ve always been. That doesn’t mean polls will always identify the right winner, especially in close elections. (As a simple rule of thumb, we’ve found polls “call” the right winner 80 percent of the time, meaning they fail to do so the other 20 percent of the time — although upsets are more likely to occur in some circumstances than others.) But the rate of upsets hasn’t changed much over time.
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but sure. Let’s continue to ignore facts and maintain the gaslighting:

2016 polls sucked and now polls shall never be believed again and that Trump is unbeatable despite never having an approval rating above 50 percent.
 
Zombie said:
Arguing about polls is incredibly pointless. There's just too much that can happen between now and November to even make an educated guess.

As for 2016, the same thing held true. There was no way for polls to account for things like the DNC Wikileaks or Comey's announcement about Hillary's emails.

The real problem with polls are people who think they are meant to be predictive, and puff their chests out when they are "wrong."
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How do we know Wikileaks had any effect on the outcome?

Was it Russia or Ukraine that hacked the DNC? Or was it really Seth Rich who leaked them? Is that why Hillary had him killed?

What effect did George Soros have? And didn’t Comey want Trump to win so he could use Mueller as a way to get Trump? You know, Stryk and Lover sent text messages.

Isn’t Trump unbeatable in 2020 because Hillary and Socialism?
 
Zombie said:
Arguing about polls is incredibly pointless. There's just too much that can happen between now and November to even make an educated guess.

As for 2016, the same thing held true. There was no way for polls to account for things like the DNC Wikileaks or Comey's announcement about Hillary's emails.

The real problem with polls are people who think they are meant to be predictive, and puff their chests out when they are "wrong."
Click to expand...

There’s a lot that can happen between now and November. I have no confidence that Trump will try and play this fairly. We’ve already seen him cheat before. We know he’s trying to cheat already. And now after the failed conviction, I have little doubt he’ll feel emboldened to cheat further. But I’m still not sure why polls shouldn’t be trusted. I remember arguing with stoked back in 2017 about a blue wave. Even though Democrats we’re still losing races, they were way outperforming what they’d traditionally do. You could see districts that were traditionally going +20 for republicans only going +3. The polls indicated a blue wave coming.

How’d that work out?

considering Trump's abysmal approval, I don’t think one can dismiss the national polls showing him losing in head to head matchups. However, considering the demographics of key swing states in the Midwest and the power of Russia and Facebook, I think it’s going to be difficult to claim Trump the underdog despite what the national polls say.
 
One Brow said:
It's supposed to be a warning to oneself, not used to diminish others. Among other things, there are so many cognitive biases that you can't diagnose one from the list over the internet.
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I think it’s pretty funny when someone who clearly has no idea how the American electoral system works yet insists on interjecting their (strong) opinions about it. A warning to not diminish others is fine but shouldn’t come at the expect of diminishing the person who insists on interjecting their poorly informed opinion on a subject they clearly know nothing about. If you feel how I described the status of the political system or accuracy of polls as inaccurate, please refute it. If you felt I wasn’t nice, just state so.
 
The Thriller said:
There’s a lot that can happen between now and November. I have no confidence that Trump will try and play this fairly. We’ve already seen him cheat before. We know he’s trying to cheat already. And now after the failed conviction, I have little doubt he’ll feel emboldened to cheat further. But I’m still not sure why polls shouldn’t be trusted. I remember arguing with stoked back in 2017 about a blue wave. Even though Democrats we’re still losing races, they were way outperforming what they’d traditionally do. You could see districts that were traditionally going +20 for republicans only going +3. The polls indicated a blue wave coming.

How’d that work out?

considering Trump's abysmal approval, I don’t think one can dismiss the national polls showing him losing in head to head matchups. However, considering the demographics of key swing states in the Midwest and the power of Russia and Facebook, I think it’s going to be difficult to claim Trump the underdog despite what the national polls say.
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I don't think they should be ignored, or dismissed, just that they are more useful in identifying trends rather than as a crystal ball into what is going to happen in November. The polling we have now indicates that the Democratic field is full of candidates that are competitive with Trump. Considering the monumental task of defeating an incumbent when the "economy" isn't in the *****er, I'd say that's about as much as we can reasonably ask for.
 
Zombie said:
While Trump is bragging about kicking seven million people off food stamps?

Seems appropriate.
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He's bragging about getting these people off of your plantation ******** zombie. People working, doing their own things, making their own way rather than conforming to your parties slavery platform.
 
JazzyFresh said:
He's bragging about getting these people off of your plantation ******** zombie. People working, doing their own things, making their own way rather than conforming to your parties slavery platform.
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Here's the thing- slavery is slavery. Giving people a helping hand =//= slavery.
 
Zombie said:
Here's the thing- slavery is slavery. Giving people a helping hand =//= slavery.
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Giving people a helping hand is great we all need it. Keeping people from being self sufficient is slavery. Keeping people in poverty is slavery. Making people conform to get a can of peas is slavery.
 
Zombie said:
Poe's law strikes again!
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Slightly.

From the bottom of my heart I feel that food stamps are needed but only in emergencies which we all need. I think keeping people on it isdepriving humans of self worth, dignity, and the American dream. And I think there's a loooot of people sitting that know that and thrive off of that and I do view it as modern day slavery.

I'm leaving it at that though
 
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