Coronavirus

[Keefe]

Everything is shutting down in NJ.

My gym closed down, my basketball league. My job told me to start working from home effective immediately

Picked up a PS4...

Assuming you have kids in public schools so I’ll fill you in on what I’ve heard. Sounds like what I said back on Monday and that is that all public schools will be shut down in the next 24-48 hours.

Michigan, Ohio, Maryland, New Mexico and Kentucky already have shut down theirs.

 

[Red]

CDC and epidemic experts conferred in Feb. to determine what could happen in the United States. 4 models were developed and discussed. The models developed by the CDC have not been released to the public: "The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate......The assumptions in the C.D.C.’s four scenarios, and the new numerical projections, fall in the range of others developed by independent experts."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

 

[Red]

Further excerpts from the Times article. If I could find a non paywall version of this, I'd post it, but many may be able to read the piece anyway...

@JazzyFresh, if you wish to dispute any of this, you need to do so with the doctors involved in the projections described, not with me. I will not jump through hoops for you. So, when you have the balls to demand, to paraphrase you: "yes or no? Answer", don't hold your breath....

(When asked to predict how many cases the country will face, Fauci said that will depend largely on the government’s response.

“I can’t get you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond,” he said. “If we are complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up to many, many millions.”: https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/coron...worse-warns-white-house-expert-anthony-fauci/)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Even severe flu seasons stress the nation’s hospitals to the point of setting up tents in parking lots and keeping people for days in emergency rooms. Coronavirus is likely to cause five to 10 times that burden of disease, said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Hospitals “need to start working now,” he said, “to get prepared to take care of a heck of a lot of people.

Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the U.S. would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.....

.......The most lethal pandemic to hit the United States was the 1918 Spanish flu, which was responsible for about 675,000 American deaths, according to estimates cited by the C.D.C.

The Institute for Disease Modeling calculated that the new coronavirus is roughly equally transmissible as the 1918 flu, and just slightly less clinically severe, and it is higher in both transmissibility and severity compared with all other flu viruses in the past century.

 

[The Thriller]

 

[The Thriller]

It’s always somebody else’s fault



facts

 

[The Thriller]

Again, our actual cases are much higher. During yesterday’s presser with Gov Herbert, they talked about how we haven’t had community spread. Yet, how do we actually know that when the only people being tested are jazz players?

 

[The Thriller]

Yep

 

[Ron Mexico]

Hubei Provence in China handled things as poorly as possible for well over a month. Projections that make it worse than that for other countries in their models seem pretty silly and alarmist to me. They did eventually go to get big lengths at the epicenter in wuhan but that was well after handling things poorly. Plus if you factor in the standard of living for people there and their habits and genetics they have a much higher chance of spreading this. Also when you factor in that the majority of men are heavy smokers you can easily see why more people would die from it there.

 

[candrew]

Assuming you have kids in public schools so I’ll fill you in on what I’ve heard. Sounds like what I said back on Monday and that is that all public schools will be shut down in the next 24-48 hours.

Michigan, Ohio, Maryland, New Mexico and Kentucky already have shut down theirs.

Yep. Schools in Cranford are closed today - they were originally supposed to be closed on Monday but they moved it up. They announced it yesterday afternoon - gave parents no notice.

My guess is they're not opening back up.

 

[Safetydan]

So you're agreeing with me that 150,000,000 people are not going to get sick?

Get help.

@Everybody else, I just got done with a team meeting discussing the virus in detail. We're one of the heavy hitters when it comes to delivering front line tests for respiratory diseases that are not Covid19. Hospitals use these to test for other respiratory diseases first to save the low supply of Covid19 tests for those who test negative to other possible root causes. We're a week away from getting FDA approval on a test panel that includes the Covid19 virus. This should help to increase the number of tests available in the near future.

All of this is to say, the number of confirmed infected in the United States is going to shoot up. I don't know how much. I don't think anybody knows. However, people have it and they're not being tested so the numbers reported are artificially low.

 

[Red]

When you spend your time in office lying nearly every single day, and creating alternate realities that comfort you("the testing is going fine"), this is what you sow:

https://www.newsweek.com/majority-a...uth-about-covid-19-coronavirus-threat-1492125

Most Americans do not trust President Donald Trump to be honest about the COVID-19 threat, a new poll has found.

The latest survey from Yahoo! News and YouGov found that 53 percent of polled U.S. adults did not have faith in the president to tell the truth about the threat of the new coronavirus, while a third of those polled said they trusted the commander-in-chief.

A further 14 percent of the 1,635 U.S. adults polled said they were "not sure" whether they trusted Trump on the matter.

 

[JazzyFresh]

So a good chunk of people who have it don't even know they have it because it's so mild but stores are emptying, people are losing their livelihood, businesses will be permanently closed, and the entire country suffers.

 

[Safetydan]

So a good chunk of people who have it don't even know they have it because it's so mild but stores are emptying, people are losing their livelihood, businesses will be permanently closed, and the entire country suffers.

If only there was somebody at the head of the country who could do something about this panic. Somebody who could produce a clear message of non-panic with facts based on science, and comprehensible and effective instructions in a timely fashion (months ago) /s

 

[JazzyFresh]

If only there was somebody at the head of the country who could do something about this panic. Somebody who could produce a clear message of non-panic with facts based on science, and comprehensible and effective instructions in a timely fashion (months ago) /s

Like he did weeks ago and you all hated him for it? I was fully aware of the seriousness when he was canceling travel and the left called him racist for it in January. Hell the left just barely suspended their bill against his travel restrictions for obvious reasons. Now I'm reading your hero Pelosi is putting abortion things in these bills that are dedicated to Corona. Good people...

Has Trump been great here? No. Could've he been more prepared? Yes. You could say the same thing about most countries if not all. Personally I never even though of blaming Obama like you guys do, but I never had an obsession to blame something like a world wide virus on the president. Lol that's literally crazy.

 

[Safetydan]

Has Trump been great here? No. Could've he been more prepared? Yes.

Yes

an obsession to blame something like a world wide virus on the president. Lol that's literally crazy.

Yeah, People who do that are super crazy. I haven't found anybody but yeah.

 

[JazzyFresh]

Yeah, People who do that are super crazy. I haven't found anybody but yeah.[/QUOTE]
Lol then you haven't read this thread...

Anyways I stand by my argument that this fearmongering by @Red is just that. If I am wrong I will fully admit it but none of his crazy numbers make sense. If someone wants to enlighten me why Americans will get sick at 2000% more of the rate of the rest of the world, I'm all ears. Why there is one billion people in China yet only 80,000(let's double that 160,000) got sick there yet 150,000,000 will get sick here? What is the thought process behind this? There are only 180,000 reported cases world wide yet the USA is going to have 45% of it's population sick when no other country is even remotely close to 1%? I don't think I'm asking a stupid question here like you all are claiming am I? I think it's pretty reasonable.

 

[Red]

Washington Post: I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it.

Beth Cameron is vice president for global biological policy and programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. She previously served as the senior director for global health security and biodefense on the White House National Security Council.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...0de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

When President Trump took office in 2017, the White House’s National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense survived the transition intact. Its mission was the same as when I was asked to lead the office, established after the Ebola epidemic of 2014: to do everything possible within the vast powers and resources of the U.S. government to prepare for the next disease outbreak and prevent it from becoming an epidemic or pandemic.

One year later, I was mystified when the White House dissolved the office, leaving the country less prepared for pandemics like covid-19.

The U.S. government’s slow and inadequate response to the new coronavirus underscores the need for organized, accountable leadership to prepare for and respond to pandemic threats.....

......It’s impossible to assess the full impact of the 2018 decision to disband the White House office responsible for this work. Biological experts do remain in the White House and in our government. But it is clear that eliminating the office has contributed to the federal government’s sluggish domestic response. What’s especially concerning about the absence of this office today is that it was originally set up because a previous epidemic made the need for it quite clear.

 

[JazzyFresh]

Washington Post: I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it.

Beth Cameron is vice president for global biological policy and programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. She previously served as the senior director for global health security and biodefense on the White House National Security Council.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...0de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

When President Trump took office in 2017, the White House’s National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense survived the transition intact. Its mission was the same as when I was asked to lead the office, established after the Ebola epidemic of 2014: to do everything possible within the vast powers and resources of the U.S. government to prepare for the next disease outbreak and prevent it from becoming an epidemic or pandemic.

One year later, I was mystified when the White House dissolved the office, leaving the country less prepared for pandemics like covid-19.

The U.S. government’s slow and inadequate response to the new coronavirus underscores the need for organized, accountable leadership to prepare for and respond to pandemic threats.....

......It’s impossible to assess the full impact of the 2018 decision to disband the White House office responsible for this work. Biological experts do remain in the White House and in our government. But it is clear that eliminating the office has contributed to the federal government’s sluggish domestic response. What’s especially concerning about the absence of this office today is that it was originally set up because a previous epidemic made the need for it quite clear.

"Nobody is blaming Trump"

Yes...They...Are...

And lol at the idea that this one person would've stopped this world wide pandemic.

 

[JazzyFresh]

Washington Post: I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it.

Beth Cameron is vice president for global biological policy and programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. She previously served as the senior director for global health security and biodefense on the White House National Security Council.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...0de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

When President Trump took office in 2017, the White House’s National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense survived the transition intact. Its mission was the same as when I was asked to lead the office, established after the Ebola epidemic of 2014: to do everything possible within the vast powers and resources of the U.S. government to prepare for the next disease outbreak and prevent it from becoming an epidemic or pandemic.

One year later, I was mystified when the White House dissolved the office, leaving the country less prepared for pandemics like covid-19.

The U.S. government’s slow and inadequate response to the new coronavirus underscores the need for organized, accountable leadership to prepare for and respond to pandemic threats.....

......It’s impossible to assess the full impact of the 2018 decision to disband the White House office responsible for this work. Biological experts do remain in the White House and in our government. But it is clear that eliminating the office has contributed to the federal government’s sluggish domestic response. What’s especially concerning about the absence of this office today is that it was originally set up because a previous epidemic made the need for it quite clear.

Yes




Yeah, People who do that are super crazy. I haven't found anybody but yeah.

Agree

 

[Gameface]

I just got back from Costco. In the Salt Lake Valley we have one Costco that is easily twice the size of all the others and it opens at 7am vs 10am for all the rest. So I left work and went there, a bit of a drive. When I got there at 6:50am there was a line halfway around the building. They had a 1tp and 2 water limit. I was there to get some meat to freeze, canned food and I did snag a package of TP. I wanted some chicken, there was no kirkland chicken. There were no rotisserie chickens (but maybe because they just opened). A lot of the meat was gone already. I got fresh pork loin chops and country style spare ribs and some hamburger. I planned to get a big bag of rice but all the rice was gone. There was an okay selection of canned goods.

I was pretty quick and was walking out the door at 7:30am the lady checking receipts said 850 customers in the first 30 min. That was how many receipts she had checked. As soon as she checked my receipt they were passing the word to the employees that the TP was gone.

****ing madhouse!