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The off-season strategies (Jazz have limited options)

LoPo said:
Interesting article with Lowe and Simmons discussing Jazz deals.

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Rudy for #1 and expiring

Rudy for Wiggins and #2

Said Brooklyn was "obvious" but no proposals

Rudy for Myles Turner and Holiday

Rudy to Sacramento for Barnes and a ton of picks

Conley for Griffin and Rose

Sent from my SM-G970U using JazzFanz mobile app
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Bill is like super sure we are trading him... I’d place the chances at like less than 5%.
 
LoPo said:
I'd say higher than that, but still more unlikely than likely.

I really wish we knew what his camp expected in terms of a contract.
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DL won't actively seek to trade him. But if teams come with offers, I'd bet he will listen.
 
LoPo said:
Interesting article with Lowe and Simmons discussing Jazz deals.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

Rudy for #1 and expiring

Rudy for Wiggins and #2

Said Brooklyn was "obvious" but no proposals

Rudy for Myles Turner and Holiday

Rudy to Sacramento for Barnes and a ton of picks

Conley for Griffin and Rose

Sent from my SM-G970U using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...

Was just playing around with the trade machine.

Utah
Out: Gobert, Davis, Bradley
In: Minnesota’s first pick 2021, paschal, Wendell carter, OPJ, and John Collins
GS
Out: Minny 1st 2021, 2020 #2, Wiggins, Paschal
In: Gobert
Chicago
Out: OPJ, Wendell Carter, 2020 #4
In: Wiggins, 2020 #2
Atlanta
Out: John Collins
In: 2020 #4, Davis, Bradley


Sent from my iPhone using JazzFanz mobile app
 
The only scenario I see us moving him is if the contract negotiation goes poorly. I think Rudy knows the lay of the land for bigs with his limitations. If he goes to market next year he could end up costing himself some dough.

Basically the least we can offer him is 4/$110M that is starting at the normal max and declining by 8% per year. The middle ground is 4/140M... the normal max. Super max is 5/217M and he ain't getting that... sorry. It is likely worth $15-20M to him to lock in a deal now since he would get a lot less if there was a serious injury. Something in the 4/120-125M is what he should consider fair imo.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The only scenario I see us moving him is if the contract negotiation goes poorly. I think Rudy knows the lay of the land for bigs with his limitations. If he goes to market next year he could end up costing himself some dough.

Basically the least we can offer him is 4/$110M that is starting at the normal max and declining by 8% per year. The middle ground is 4/140M... the normal max. Super max is 5/217M and he ain't getting that... sorry. It is likely worth $15-20M to him to lock in a deal now since he would get a lot less if there was a serious injury. Something in the 4/120-125M is what he should consider fair imo.
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Good breakdown.

Due to the uncertainty of COVID and finances, I wouldn't offer him more than 4 years and $30 million per year. For 3 of the seasons, he would be 30 or older. I could be convinced to give $35 per year over 3 years.
 
The most he can get if he changes teams is 4/134M. I think 4/120 is super reasonable.
 
LoPo said:
Good breakdown.

Due to the uncertainty of COVID and finances, I wouldn't offer him more than 4 years and $30 million per year. For 3 of the seasons, he would be 30 or older. I could be convinced to give $35 per year over 3 years.
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Rudy seems like a super smart and reasonable guy... I think the gulf between 4/110 and 4/140 can be bridged. He seems to like it here and doesn’t seem to be into the super team vibe. I think he’d be miserable with a non playoff team. 20-30M isn’t all that much when you’ll make like $300M over your career. There is some serious downside risk for him too by passing on the extension.

He doesn’t have a lot of friends throughout the league. Would say his fellow countrymen are his closest non jazz guys. Not sure how comfortable he’d be in a new environment.

One thing that worries me is DL isn’t always the strongest negotiator and may just give him the full max for past performance. 4/140 isn’t catastrophic but it makes him less tradeable if there is a need to pivot.
 
The other reason you won't see us move Rudy has part to do with the Conley deal... that lightly protected pick that looms out there will motivate you to stay as competitive as possible to avoid giving a lotto pick to Memphis.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The other reason you won't see us move Rudy has part to do with the Conley deal... that lightly protected pick that looms out there will motivate you to stay as competitive as possible to avoid giving a lotto pick to Memphis.
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I would argue that it might be better to lose it in next year rather than tempt fate in the later years. If Rudy leaves in 2021, gets hurt, regresses in a hurry like many other 30+ bigs, we could give away a really, really good pick to Memphis. Or Don could demand out and others could have really off years.

2021 first round draft pick to Memphis
Utah's 1st round pick to Memphis protected for selections 1-7 and 15-30 in 2021, 1-6 in 2022, 1-3 in 2023 and 1 in 2024; if Utah has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Memphis by 2024, then Utah will instead convey its 2025 2nd round pick and 2026 2nd round pick to Memphis [Memphis-Utah, 7/6/2019]
 
LoPo said:
I would argue that it might be better to lose it in next year rather than tempt fate in the later years. If Rudy leaves in 2021, gets hurt, regresses in a hurry like many other 30+ bigs, we could give away a really, really good pick to Memphis. Or Don could demand out and others could have really off years.

2021 first round draft pick to Memphis
Utah's 1st round pick to Memphis protected for selections 1-7 and 15-30 in 2021, 1-6 in 2022, 1-3 in 2023 and 1 in 2024; if Utah has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Memphis by 2024, then Utah will instead convey its 2025 2nd round pick and 2026 2nd round pick to Memphis [Memphis-Utah, 7/6/2019]
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Even if we moved Rudy it would be hard for us to get to the bottom 7. Unless both Rudy and DM are hurt I don't see how you get there. I could see us trading Rudy and just missing out on the playoffs in the West (it will be a damned bloodbath). Giving a late lotto pick would be kinda sad for DL to do. You shouldn't make decisions based on sunk costs but I don't believe DL is a full subscriber to that ideal.
 
The Jazz brass think they are closer to a contender than most here do is the sense I get... which means we likely do some window dressing and hope the team is better now that they have been together a year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Even if we moved Rudy it would be hard for us to get to the bottom 7. Unless both Rudy and DM are hurt I don't see how you get there. I could see us trading Rudy and just missing out on the playoffs in the West (it will be a damned bloodbath). Giving a late lotto pick would be kinda sad for DL to do. You shouldn't make decisions based on sunk costs but I don't believe DL is a full subscriber to that ideal.
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I would hate to give up a late lottery pick, but if our massively aging roster falls off a cliff after next season, we could end up giving up a really high pick in 2022.

We are literally risking everything in 2022 if we don't have Conley or Rudy under contract going into summer 2021. I can't believe we had to give up that pick to get Conley. Our FO was so stupid. We were negotiating against ourselves.
 
LoPo said:
I would hate to give up a late lottery pick, but if our massively aging roster falls off a cliff after next season, we could end up giving up a really high pick in 2022.

We are literally risking everything in 2022 if we don't have Conley or Rudy under contract going into summer 2021. I can't believe we had to give up that pick to get Conley. Our FO was so stupid. We were negotiating against ourselves.
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Its us locking in on one guy again imo. It was one pick too many to offer... then he didn't have a good year. Its the premium plus the disappointment that makes it tough.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
One thing that worries me is DL isn’t always the strongest negotiator and may just give him the full max for past performance. 4/140 isn’t catastrophic but it makes him less tradeable if there is a need to pivot.
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We overpaid Exum, gave loyalty bonus extension to Ingles (that's the only explanation to me).. It doesn't inspire confidence in that matter.
 
I've decided the hate has gone too far on Bledsoe. He has some really desirable traits I'd want in a backcourt mate with DM. The right type of deal is probably too tricky to pull off but if you flipped Conley for Bledsoe and something (cap space, a draft pick, a useful player) I'd be good with that.

I know, I know... he can't hit shots in the post season... his team is still better with him on the court than off it. Lakers just won the title with Danny Green, who has struggled shooting at times in the postseason, Caruso, and Rondo on the perimeter. I just think Bledsoe fits so much better with DM and JC and can handle the matchups that Royce and Joe struggle with.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Bill is like super sure we are trading him... I’d place the chances at like less than 5%.
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Handlogten's Heros said:
https://www.detroitbadboys.com/2020/9/5/21332275/the-pistons-dont-need-to-re-sign-christian-wood

Interesting take on Wood from the Pistons side. If they indeed see it as ground zero would they prefer expiring salary and pick for Wood?

Say we offered Ed and TB plus our first that conveys 2 years after the one we owe to Memphis... so 2023 on. Make it top 10 protected for the entire time. Would be a somewhat valuable pick since its a ways out.

Would you do it?
Using those guys we could offer something around 4/55M... Is that enough?

I could see Charlotte or Detroit offering a little more than that but would he rather be in a winning situation if the money was close? Hornets are rumored to want Wiseman and I think they could move to #1 easily if they wanted to.

Even if Wood didn't start you could mix him in to get 25 -30 minutes a game. Games against big teams he could start... if things are working well with him and Rudy then you make a permanent change.
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I would do this trade for sure. Like it or not, Jazz are essentially in a win now situation.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I've decided the hate has gone too far on Bledsoe. He has some really desirable traits I'd want in a backcourt mate with DM. The right type of deal is probably too tricky to pull off but if you flipped Conley for Bledsoe and something (cap space, a draft pick, a useful player) I'd be good with that.

I know, I know... he can't hit shots in the post season... his team is still better with him on the court than off it. Lakers just won the title with Danny Green, who has struggled shooting at times in the postseason, Caruso, and Rondo on the perimeter. I just think Bledsoe fits so much better with DM and JC and can handle the matchups that Royce and Joe struggle with.
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I could be fine with Bledsoe depending on how we used the cap space + depending on what other minor assets we got by moving Conley.

Without those things turning out pretty well, then I’d rather add a couple of rugged defenders like Harrison and Craig, and then hope that Conley moves to the bench for maximum impact.
 
LoPo said:
I would argue that it might be better to lose it in next year rather than tempt fate in the later years. If Rudy leaves in 2021, gets hurt, regresses in a hurry like many other 30+ bigs, we could give away a really, really good pick to Memphis. Or Don could demand out and others could have really off years.

2021 first round draft pick to Memphis
Utah's 1st round pick to Memphis protected for selections 1-7 and 15-30 in 2021, 1-6 in 2022, 1-3 in 2023 and 1 in 2024; if Utah has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Memphis by 2024, then Utah will instead convey its 2025 2nd round pick and 2026 2nd round pick to Memphis [Memphis-Utah, 7/6/2019]
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Yep. Next season we will make some trade to get younger and more athletic, end up 9th or 10th in the West and barely miss the playoff(our odds aren't great from the start anyways considering how old our roster is and 6 playoff spots are already locked by Lakers Clippers Nuggets Rockets Mavs and Warriors so we have to compete against Blazers and Suns for the remaining 2), probably fire Quin midseason to be the scapegoat for our FO's failure and get one of the assist like Dell Demps to be the interim, give that late lotto pick to Memphis, and rebuild a team around DM to compete for the next 5 years.
 
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