The cap spike that could break the league

[oneye]

Story here

NBA is next up for a big rights increase, and $75 billion is the price

The NBA's current deal pays $2.6 billion per year, and it could increase that figure to $8 billion in its next agreement.

www.cnbc.com

So, this would effectively TRIPLE revenue in the league, and TRIPLE the salary cap over one season if the league/owners don't find a way to smooth this in. The cap spike is exactly what allowed KD to sign in Golden State, only this spike would be much bigger. LA, NY, MIA.....well they could sign 4-5 of the best FA outright if they really wanted in this scenario and make that Golden State team with KD look like childs play. Obviously Donovan and Rudy can both opt out that very summer. This happening would make Rudy's last year of his contract more palatable. There's no chance Donovan signs any type of extension, even super-max, if the cap is scheduled to rise this much. Younger players won't be signing their rookie extensions in the same lengths with this coming. I hope the league/owners find a way to smooth it out or you could very well have super teams like we haven't seen, and every small market team will be absolutely boned from the day that deal is signed for about a decade. Obviously we're the #1 team in the west, hopefully we win a title, but this has some pretty big implications over the next decade if it isn't done in a way that doesn't just give everything and even more to large markets.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

100% they going to smooth it. Players are more savvy now that they saw how the cap smoothing only helped a handful of them and owners want to avoid another GSW KD situation

 

[framer]

There is no damn way they get that much. I mean, for sure, ask for it, but nobody is paying that. They would be over the moon to get 5 billion, and that's if Amazon steps up to challenge things.

Even 5 billion changes things a lot. It is also why I am not worried about the repeater tax. There will be a new CBA right when things get hairy for us. No way it makes things MORE restrictive.

 

[oneye]

100% they going to smooth it. Players are more savvy now that they saw how the cap smoothing only helped a handful of them and owners want to avoid another GSW KD situation

I agree with you that the league and owners are going to want to smooth it in some way but why would the players? Even guys like say Zion could take a qualifying offer at that point(which would be worth like $30 million not just $11) and then sign a 4 year/$420 million deal with a team wherever he wants......with other stars likely. If they don’t do something to negate the impacts small market fans will be wondering why they are fans of the league far more than they even do now. If that deal is what ends up getting agreed to as far as revenue it will impact the next few years extensions and will ruin the league for a decade....just in time for the next spike lol. So hopefully they’ll find an answer to address the issues that are going to be coming shortly in regards to that large of spike.

 

[oneye]

There is no damn way they get that much. I mean, for sure, ask for it, but nobody is paying that. They would be over the moon to get 5 billion, and that's if Amazon steps up to challenge things.

Even 5 billion changes things a lot. It is also why I am not worried about the repeater tax. There will be a new CBA right when things get hairy for us. No way it makes things MORE restrictive.

I mean they’re asking for basically what the NFL actually got as far as a comparable increase. NBA ratings are struggling quite a bit more than the NFL at this point though so you may be right. If they do get it, it has real potential to ruin the league at least competitively.

 

[LogGrad98]

If they do not handle this right it will absolutely break the league. Super-teams will simply congregate in LA and Florida, the places players want to live.

Can anyone imagine a top salary of $100 mill per year? Beyond insane.

 

[framer]

I mean they’re asking for basically what the NFL actually got as far as a comparable increase. NBA ratings are struggling quite a bit more than the NFL at this point though so you may be right. If they do get it, it has real potential to ruin the league at least competitively.

The NFL is worth far, far more than the NBA. That is why I am doubting the NBA's valuation. What I bet we see is a comparable cable contract that allows for streaming rights to another provider as well. That would be ideal. That would still be closer to 4 to 5 billion though.