The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[leftyjace]

Wow… anybody (Red?) have access to the full article?

This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says

Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described

www.thetimes.co.uk

Here’s a link to the Twitter thread, with some interesting snippets, followed by the Unscroller of the thread:

Thread by @thetimes on Thread Reader App

@thetimes: A Russian whistleblower has described the war as a “total failure” that could be compared only to the collapse of Nazi Germany thetimes.co.uk/article/this-w… A report thought to be by an analyst in the FS...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[leftyjace]

OK. Wild conspiracy theory time.

What if…

1. There were those in the FSB that wanted regime change…
2. That fed all sorts of inaccurate intelligence to Putin to make him believe Ukraine was easy pickin’s…..
3. That once the invasion started, Putin started to realize that he’s screwed…
4. That all of this will lead to a citizenship-driven regime change that topples Putin…
5. That there is some FSB faction/leader that will benefit greatly from this, and possibly inherit the Presidency?

I know, not realistic, but… how in the world does Putin do this without realizing how badly it would go? He had to have bad information. No sane person would do this and start an invasion of a country he couldn’t dream of holding if he did eventually conquer it.

 

[gandalfe]

The ruble is currently down to $0.0065 - That's .65 of a penny. Before the invasion, it was around 1.4, 1.3 cents. Putin has absolutely tanked his economy.

 

[Gameface]

I'd love for this to end with Putin gone, new leadership saying they never wanted this to happen, withdrawing without condition and giving Crimea back to Ukraine. I'd love for Putin to watch this from a prison cell and the response to the new regime from the world to be significant lifting of sanctions and the Russian economy taking off. Once he gets to see all of that they can go ahead and hang him.

It might be a fantasy but it would be nice.

 

[LogGrad98]

 

[LogGrad98]

The ruble is currently down to $0.0065 - That's .65 of a penny. Before the invasion, it was around 1.4, 1.3 cents. Putin has absolutely tanked his economy.

In other words, buy rubles.

 

[Deleted member 365]

We've been celebrating Ukrainian defiance and resilience in the face of an overwhelming military force. I think we're about to see the tragic reality that Russia has a MUCH larger military force and they are going to finally bring it to bear on the capital city and the city will fall to the Russians.

The very very sad part is about to start.

Most of the writing I’m seeing from military experts believe that the Russian army is dissolving. They’re not advancing, they’re unable to keep their forces supplied, they don’t have the numbers to occupy major cities, and the longer this goes the greater drag it’s going to take on Russia. They have no economy. They have no way of producing tanks, bombs, and missiles.

Now sure, they can continue to shell cities. But that doesn’t exactly bring them closer to victory. Remember, Putin’s goal was to wreck democracy and install a puppet regime. Is that even possible anymore?

 

[Deleted member 365]

@Gameface a few interesting takes:





Russia wouldn’t be churning up this lame propaganda if the war was going well:

Opinion | Russia Has Suffered a Crushing Moral Defeat. And Russians Know It.

For many Russians, the invasion of Ukraine is a visceral horror.

www.nytimes.com

Still doesn’t mean that Putin won’t try and raze Ukraine to the ground with artillery. Or try and kill a lot of people with chemical weapons. But his dream of installing a puppet regime and having this be a huge boon to his popularity domestically is most likely dead.

 

[Deleted member 365]

Russia’s economy is projected to contract 30-40 percent

JPMorgan: Shock to Russian GDP will be akin to 1998 crisis

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.

www.reuters.com

Hard to conduct a war when you’re also in a depression.

JPMorgan: Shock to Russian GDP will be akin to 1998 crisis

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.

www.reuters.com

 

[Rubashov]

We've been celebrating Ukrainian defiance and resilience in the face of an overwhelming military force. I think we're about to see the tragic reality that Russia has a MUCH larger military force and they are going to finally bring it to bear on the capital city and the city will fall to the Russians.

The very very sad part is about to start.

It was always going to happen. Ukraine pleading for a no fly zone was a sign that things on the ground were deteriorating.

 

[Rubashov]

I'd love for this to end with Putin gone, new leadership saying they never wanted this to happen, withdrawing without condition and giving Crimea back to Ukraine. I'd love for Putin to watch this from a prison cell and the response to the new regime from the world to be significant lifting of sanctions and the Russian economy taking off. Once he gets to see all of that they can go ahead and hang him.

It might be a fantasy but it would be nice.

It ends one of two ways for Putin, peacefully in bed or on the end of a noose.

 

[Deleted member 365]

It was always going to happen. Ukraine pleading for a no fly zone was a sign that things on the ground were deteriorating.

And it just might continue to deteriorate. But that doesn’t mean the Russians will be able to govern or occupy Ukraine. Especially with sanctions tanking their ability to wage war or suppress domestic upheaval. Ukraine just needs to stay alive and be annoying. They’ll outlast the Russians. Not exactly reassuring to those suffering right now. But it’s hard to see Putin being able to govern or install a puppet regime after all of this resistance.

After nearly 20 years of failing to mold the Middle East with far better technology, money, manpower, and logistics, you’d think Americans of all people would understand the pickle Putin is in.

Could you imagine what would happen if Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, etc tried to invade Afghanistan or Iraq AND install a puppet government WHILE most of the world leveled sanctions AND the American economy contracted 30-40 percent??? And uhhh our military industrial complex is far more advanced than Russia’s.