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Locke's Tone: Tank on The Horizon?

SoberasHotRod said:
Right, it's unrealistic. I was just playing through scenarios in my head where scenario A is trading players now, getting worse value for them, but having a worse record netting us a better pick. Would that be better than scenario B, where you let guys increase their trade value and get better value from more desperate teams at the deadline. In the end your own pick is worse off.

The play in games gives more teams hope, which increases demand and decreases supply at the trade deadline. Specifically the type of players we have will be more in demand as win now pieces at the deadline. Like you said though, if we get off to a good start it makes it less likely we are going to want to be sellers at the deadline.
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Yeah because it'd be weird to keep everyone, get off to a good start, then decide halfway through nvm.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Right, it's unrealistic. I was just playing through scenarios in my head where scenario A is trading players now, getting worse value for them, but having a worse record netting us a better pick. Would that be better than scenario B, where you let guys increase their trade value and get better value from more desperate teams at the deadline. In the end your own pick is worse off.

The play in games gives more teams hope, which increases demand and decreases supply at the trade deadline. Specifically the type of players we have will be more in demand as win now pieces at the deadline. Like you said though, if we get off to a good start it makes it less likely we are going to want to be sellers at the deadline.
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I think there are scenarios where we could be bad to start the season but Conley specifically is playing well and his value increases. Bogey/Royce are what they are trade value wise. JC likely ebbs and flows a little. Right now I'm not even sure Washington would do the Mike for KCP and stuff deal based on the murky pg market.

I also don't think there is a lot of tank competition... so if you decide to do it midseason there is room to get to bottom 6-7 with some trades and strategic rest. The relatively flat odds still give you an okay chance at hitting it big. To get below Houston/OKC/Orlando/Indiana it will require real effort all season. Detroit may be a lot better this year... there will be a team or two that enter the fray (does SA really deal Murray?)... and Sacramento will be there on accident. I can see scenarios where OKC and Indiana are actually decent... So if we try it out and we are at like .500 and decide to tank we can do the Portland and get there.

I think Donovan and Rudy are the most likely to lose some trade value... either due to injury or just being stagnant. If the view on Donovan changes with him on a team that is more average and he doesn't show improvements... then I think you lose some of the premium you'd get by trading him now. Draft night would have been the night to really do something. Before NY gives some picks up to shed salary to overpay Brunson we should hear what their best current offer would be. I doubt we will though.
 
The Jazz want to get bigger and more athletic, particularly on the perimeter. The front office envisions Donovan Mitchell moving to the point guard position full time, which paves the way for more size and length at the wing spots. The issue? The NBA is a wings league, and everyone knows it. That means everyone this offseason will be trying to find, you guessed it, wings.
 
Basically the 2021 Magic/2022 Pacers model. Enter the season fake contending then tear it down half way thru the season.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Also some recent interviews with Andy Larsen or Eric Walden (can't remember who said) basically eluded to Smith being a broke boy after buying the team and the initial LT payments (hints why Utah wasn't willing to buy into the 2nd round). He might not really love the idea of tanking and looking like a failure, but it would ultimately save him money.
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Maybe being a cheap *** will actually be what saves the day. Who knew?
 
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