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Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

Elizah Huge said:
I have laid out a scenario in a different thread before.

Essentially they send Lowry/Strus to Dallas while taking back Bertans salary then Dallas sends us salary filler plus a protected 1st or maybe two pick swaps?

Miami keeps Robinson and takes on Bertans which significantly hinders their cap space through 2025 when Donovan can opt out.

Miami sends us 23/27/29 unprotected 1sts plus pick swaps in 24/26/28. That pick package along with Herro/Jovic/Yurtseven.

Getting Herro would be a big win especially if we can extend him on a pretty good contract with the cap spike coming. HH has gone over this a few times and it really makes a ton of sense.

Herro/Jovic + 4 1sts (3 unprotected) + 3 pick swaps
or
Herro/Jovic + 3 unprotected 1sts + 5 pick swaps

I think that is a solid deal for sure. I will preface it like I always do by saying the Knicks can give us a bigger and better package but if the most they are willing to do is their B package than Miami’s A package is better.
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The Heat would have to unprotect their pick to OKC for 2015 as well in order to make us that offer. Probably not a big deal, and more of a their problem vs our problem, but something to keep in mind.
 
Elizah Huge said:
I have laid out a scenario in a different thread before.

Essentially they send Lowry/Strus to Dallas while taking back Bertans salary then Dallas sends us salary filler plus a protected 1st or maybe two pick swaps?

Miami keeps Robinson and takes on Bertans which significantly hinders their cap space through 2025 when Donovan can opt out.

Miami sends us 23/27/29 unprotected 1sts plus pick swaps in 24/26/28. That pick package along with Herro/Jovic/Yurtseven.

Getting Herro would be a big win especially if we can extend him on a pretty good contract with the cap spike coming. HH has gone over this a few times and it really makes a ton of sense.

Herro/Jovic + 4 1sts (3 unprotected) + 3 pick swaps
or
Herro/Jovic + 3 unprotected 1sts + 5 pick swaps

I think that is a solid deal for sure. I will preface it like I always do by saying the Knicks can give us a bigger and better package but if the most they are willing to do is their B package than Miami’s A package is better.
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If NY doesn't give up the goods... and if we can get an impression of what Herro will accept in an extension... then you do that deal if it means the issue is resolved before the season starts. I don't think going into the season with Donovan is ideal and if we can get all that I don't think the extra waiting is worth the squeeze.

I know Miami likely outperforms NYK over the next 7 years, but nothing is certain. Miami's best player has a lot of miles on him. They would end up capped out and without any draft capital. There is a chance a couple of those turn into late lotto picks.

I still think NY is the preferred partner and will end up giving up 4 unprotected (maybe slight protections on one pick), plus one other pick and 2 of Obi/Quickley/Grimes. I'm good pushing that all the way until training camp is about to start... if not I would pivot and talk with Miami very seriously.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
The Heat would have to unprotect their pick to OKC for 2015 as well in order to make us that offer. Probably not a big deal, and more of a their problem vs our problem, but something to keep in mind.
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They can call up OKC and offer a couple seconds to do so. I don’t think Presti would turn that down.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If NY doesn't give up the goods... and if we can get an impression of what Herro will accept in an extension... then you do that deal if it means the issue is resolved before the season starts. I don't think going into the season with Donovan is ideal and if we can get all that I don't think the extra waiting is worth the squeeze.

I know Miami likely outperforms NYK over the next 7 years, but nothing is certain. Miami's best player has a lot of miles on him. They would end up capped out and without any draft capital. There is a chance a couple of those turn into late lotto picks.

I still think NY is the preferred partner and will end up giving up 4 unprotected (maybe slight protections on one pick), plus one other pick and 2 of Obi/Quickley/Grimes. I'm good pushing that all the way until training camp is about to start... if not I would pivot and talk with Miami very seriously.
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Agreed on all of this. Sums it up pretty well. The worst thing we can do is go into the season with Donovan or wait until the trade deadline.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Agreed on all of this. Sums it up pretty well. The worst thing we can do is go into the season with Donovan or wait until the trade deadline.
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I think the hang up with some folks here is the extension... and as discussed I think its a discount for Herro or RJ based on a giant cap jump that is coming. I see it as a benefit not a deterrent.

Herro and RJ are not good enough individually to pull us out of the bottom 5 of the league once we ship out the other vets.

I think we are smart to be patient right now... that patience is basically free right now. It starts to have a cost once we get in the season... squeezing one extra pick or whatever isn't worth it at that point.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think the hang up with some folks here is the extension... and as discussed I think its a discount for Herro or RJ based on a giant cap jump that is coming. I see it as a benefit not a deterrent.

Herro and RJ are not good enough individually to pull us out of the bottom 5 of the league once we ship out the other vets.

I think we are smart to be patient right now... that patience is basically free right now. It starts to have a cost once we get in the season... squeezing one extra pick or whatever isn't worth it at that point.
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If the Knicks and/or Heat don’t get off to a great start I think it’d give us more leverage
 
YoungJefe said:
If the Knicks and/or Heat don’t get off to a great start I think it’d give us more leverage
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And if they get off to a good start? I think it really only applies to the Knicks... Heat would give us basically everything they reasonable can. Once the season starts Herro won't be eligible for trade or will be on an expiring deal. If the Knicks start well they may say "eff you Ainge... we good already".

Don could also get hurt and then our leverage shrinks at least for this year.

Other suitors may open up but if I am Ainge and Jazz brass I would really like to see this thing finished before the start of the season.

I see the potential losses being bigger than the gains of waiting it out during the season.
 
Elizah Huge said:
I have laid out a scenario in a different thread before.

Essentially they send Lowry/Strus to Dallas while taking back Bertans salary then Dallas sends us salary filler plus a protected 1st or maybe two pick swaps?

Miami keeps Robinson and takes on Bertans which significantly hinders their cap space through 2025 when Donovan can opt out.

Miami sends us 23/27/29 unprotected 1sts plus pick swaps in 24/26/28. That pick package along with Herro/Jovic/Yurtseven.

Getting Herro would be a big win especially if we can extend him on a pretty good contract with the cap spike coming. HH has gone over this a few times and it really makes a ton of sense.

Herro/Jovic + 4 1sts (3 unprotected) + 3 pick swaps
or
Herro/Jovic + 3 unprotected 1sts + 5 pick swaps

I think that is a solid deal for sure. I will preface it like I always do by saying the Knicks can give us a bigger and better package but if the most they are willing to do is their B package than Miami’s A package is better.
Click to expand...
I concede that this is a theoretical possibility, though I have questions about whether Dallas would decide that it's in their interests to do that. But maybe.

I guess the follow-up question then is, how confident are you that this is the offer the Jazz would get from Miami? I mean, we know a lot of things are theoretically possible from the Knicks side. We also know that they're resistant to do what's theoretically possible. And we also know the Heat financial people are probably the best in the business. I'm probably less confident than you that Miami will offer this theoretical package. I'm more skeptical that Miami is willing to offer any and everything the Jazz would want (save Bam & Jimmy) for Donovan. (I'm also a little skeptical that having Bertans on the books until Donovan can opt out [at least for the time being] will measurably impact the likelihood of Donovan moving on, much less the Heat imploding in any sort of way that would be useful to us.)

But maybe you and HH are right. Perhaps we'll see.
 
idiot said:
I concede that this is a theoretical possibility, though I have questions about whether Dallas would decide that it's in their interests to do that. But maybe.

I guess the follow-up question then is, how confident are you that this is the offer the Jazz would get from Miami? I mean, we know a lot of things are theoretically possible from the Knicks side. We also know that they're resistant to do what's theoretically possible. And we also know the Heat financial people are probably the best in the business. I'm probably less confident than you that Miami will offer this theoretical package. I'm more skeptical that Miami is willing to offer any and everything the Jazz would want (save Bam & Jimmy) for Donovan. (I'm also a little skeptical that having Bertans on the books until Donovan can opt out [at least for the time being] will measurably impact the likelihood of Donovan moving on, much less the Heat imploding in any sort of way that would be useful to us.)

But maybe you and HH are right. Perhaps we'll see.
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I'd do the deal without the extra first. Take Strus and flip him to a 3rd team (lakers?) for some value.

And when I say I'd do the deal... I mean if it was the best deal on the board before training camp. If Knicks won't pony up and Toronto's offer isn't good.
 
idiot said:
I concede that this is a theoretical possibility, though I have questions about whether Dallas would decide that it's in their interests to do that. But maybe.

I guess the follow-up question then is, how confident are you that this is the offer the Jazz would get from Miami? I mean, we know a lot of things are theoretically possible from the Knicks side. We also know that they're resistant to do what's theoretically possible. And we also know the Heat financial people are probably the best in the business. I'm probably less confident than you that Miami will offer this theoretical package. I'm more skeptical that Miami is willing to offer any and everything the Jazz would want (save Bam & Jimmy) for Donovan. (I'm also a little skeptical that having Bertans on the books until Donovan can opt out [at least for the time being] will measurably impact the likelihood of Donovan moving on, much less the Heat imploding in any sort of way that would be useful to us.)

But maybe you and HH are right. Perhaps we'll see.
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Bertans and Robinson’s deals are enough to prevent them from getting any better from now until their picks start conveying to us. Whether or not Donovan stays is anyones guess. They can’t trade any picks and don’t have any cap space so it is an aging Butler plus Bam and Donovan. That would be all they have. I have my doubts on that core past 25/26 anyways. So many things can happen which is why the 27/29 picks are so valuable. The Heat can have down years they have been in the lottery a few times the past couple years. Of course we’d rather have the Knicks picks.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And if they get off to a good start? I think it really only applies to the Knicks... Heat would give us basically everything they reasonable can. Once the season starts Herro won't be eligible for trade or will be on an expiring deal. If the Knicks start well they may say "eff you Ainge... we good already".

Don could also get hurt and then our leverage shrinks at least for this year.

Other suitors may open up but if I am Ainge and Jazz brass I would really like to see this thing finished before the start of the season.

I see the potential losses being bigger than the gains of waiting it out during the season.
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Any games we win with Donovan hurts our tank too. That’s my biggest thing.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Any games we win with Donovan hurts our tank too. That’s my biggest thing.
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Being one of the worst teams only gives a 14% chance of getting the top spot these days.

  • Team 1 > 14.0%
  • Team 2 > 14.0%
  • Team 3 >14.0%
  • Team 4 > 12.5%
  • Team 5 > 10.5%
  • Team 6 > 9.0%
  • Team 7 > 7.5%
  • Team 8 > 4.5%
  • Team 9 > 4.5%
  • Team 10 > 4.5%
 
Pinhead said:
Being one of the worst teams only gives a 14% chance of getting the top spot these days.

  • Team 1 > 14.0%
  • Team 2 > 14.0%
  • Team 3 >14.0%
  • Team 4 > 12.5%
  • Team 5 > 10.5%
  • Team 6 > 9.0%
  • Team 7 > 7.5%
  • Team 8 > 4.5%
  • Team 9 > 4.5%
  • Team 10 > 4.5%
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Right but you want to be bottom 3 or 4 as it gives you a 50%+ chance at a top 4 pick. Number 1 is obviously nice but you really want to ensure you give yourself the best chance at top 3 in this years draft. Cutting your odds in half by having Donovan for 40 games or so would be dumb unless the difference in the trades was pretty crazy.
 
Get the worst record and you’re guaranteed a 52.1% chance at a top-4 pick and at absolute worst you’re picking 5th.

Same with 2nd but you have a 47.8% chance of picking 5th/6th.

Same with 3rd but you have a 47.8% chance of picking 5th/6th/7th.

Bottom-3 record is crucial.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And if they get off to a good start? I think it really only applies to the Knicks... Heat would give us basically everything they reasonable can. Once the season starts Herro won't be eligible for trade or will be on an expiring deal. If the Knicks start well they may say "eff you Ainge... we good already".

Don could also get hurt and then our leverage shrinks at least for this year.

Other suitors may open up but if I am Ainge and Jazz brass I would really like to see this thing finished before the start of the season.

I see the potential losses being bigger than the gains of waiting it out during the season.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I think the sooner we can get a deal done the better so we can start the fire sale with the rest of the roster. One thing that concerns me is that if we wait we’ll hold onto most of our vets and then if we trade Don during the season we won’t be able to capitalize on their value and will also win too many games to secure a top pick.
 
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