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Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

Any games we win with Donovan hurts our tank too. That’s my biggest thing.
Its not super high on my concerns, but yeah... add that to the list. Though I think the impact is not massive.
 
Any games we win with Donovan hurts our tank too. That’s my biggest thing.
Being one of the worst teams only gives a 14% chance of getting the top spot these days.

  • Team 1 > 14.0%
  • Team 2 > 14.0%
  • Team 3 >14.0%
  • Team 4 > 12.5%
  • Team 5 > 10.5%
  • Team 6 > 9.0%
  • Team 7 > 7.5%
  • Team 8 > 4.5%
  • Team 9 > 4.5%
  • Team 10 > 4.5%
 
Being one of the worst teams only gives a 14% chance of getting the top spot these days.

  • Team 1 > 14.0%
  • Team 2 > 14.0%
  • Team 3 >14.0%
  • Team 4 > 12.5%
  • Team 5 > 10.5%
  • Team 6 > 9.0%
  • Team 7 > 7.5%
  • Team 8 > 4.5%
  • Team 9 > 4.5%
  • Team 10 > 4.5%
Right but you want to be bottom 3 or 4 as it gives you a 50%+ chance at a top 4 pick. Number 1 is obviously nice but you really want to ensure you give yourself the best chance at top 3 in this years draft. Cutting your odds in half by having Donovan for 40 games or so would be dumb unless the difference in the trades was pretty crazy.
 
Get the worst record and you’re guaranteed a 52.1% chance at a top-4 pick and at absolute worst you’re picking 5th.

Same with 2nd but you have a 47.8% chance of picking 5th/6th.

Same with 3rd but you have a 47.8% chance of picking 5th/6th/7th.

Bottom-3 record is crucial.
 
And if they get off to a good start? I think it really only applies to the Knicks... Heat would give us basically everything they reasonable can. Once the season starts Herro won't be eligible for trade or will be on an expiring deal. If the Knicks start well they may say "eff you Ainge... we good already".

Don could also get hurt and then our leverage shrinks at least for this year.

Other suitors may open up but if I am Ainge and Jazz brass I would really like to see this thing finished before the start of the season.

I see the potential losses being bigger than the gains of waiting it out during the season.
Agreed. I think the sooner we can get a deal done the better so we can start the fire sale with the rest of the roster. One thing that concerns me is that if we wait we’ll hold onto most of our vets and then if we trade Don during the season we won’t be able to capitalize on their value and will also win too many games to secure a top pick.
 
Agreed. I think the sooner we can get a deal done the better so we can start the fire sale with the rest of the roster. One thing that concerns me is that if we wait we’ll hold onto most of our vets and then if we trade Don during the season we won’t be able to capitalize on their value and will also win too many games to secure a top pick.
I do think we will fire sale those guys once we get a good deal. It might hurt our leverage a bit... but if something comes along I think we will make a deal?
 
Any games we win with Donovan hurts our tank too. That’s my biggest thing.
Yeah and as long as we have Donovan we can’t really trade away guys like Beverly or Bojan and tip our hand that we’re going full tank moss because then we lose leverage on a Don deal
 
Get the worst record and you’re guaranteed a 52.1% chance at a top-4 pick and at absolute worst you’re picking 5th.

Same with 2nd but you have a 47.8% chance of picking 5th/6th.

Same with 3rd but you have a 47.8% chance of picking 5th/6th/7th.

Bottom-3 record is crucial.
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Yeah and as long as we have Donovan we can’t really trade away guys like Beverly or Bojan and tip our hand that we’re going full tank moss because then we lose leverage on a Don deal
We don't lose leverage at all. It doesn't matter if teams know we are tanking because if you assemble a poor enough roster around Mitchell we could keep him and still be in position for a top 5 pick. I wouldn't be shocked to see Mitchell put up 30pts a game this next year and you better believe that is going to maintain his trade value. If Mitchell is putting up Beal type numbers then there will be a few teams that are willing to go all in on a huge offer for him.
 
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