Its Time to Tank

[hgb]

We’ve lost 4 in a row and our schedule only gets harder and the team tank will only get more fortified

True, but we've been _very_ shorthanded. If we keep playing very shorthanded, I think we'll lose a lot, if we don't, we could easily have been 4-0 over those games.

 

[Maneesh]

This is exactly what's most likely to happen. As mentioned previously, it would also increase the likelihood of Lauri being traded to a contender next season.

I hope Ainge isn't dumb enough to think he can have his cake and eat it too. Markkanen has been a model citizen so far, but if it's looking like another tanking season is in the cards, his agent will remind him of some cold, hard facts. Not that he needs reminding - a 26 year old All Star who's never been to the playoffs knows the clock is ticking on his career.

I see the draft being meh for the Jazz - some nice rookies but nobody who will make any kind of a real difference next season. Good vet FA's (there won't be many) will take one look at our roster and decide they'd rather play somewhere else. Particularly when there's no guarantee of Lauri staying.

The bottom line is, it won't be easy to improve this team in the short term. That's why the tank is coming.

Jazz can do it whatever they wanted.

 

[The Midnight]

This is exactly what's most likely to happen. As mentioned previously, it would also increase the likelihood of Lauri being traded to a contender next season.

I hope Ainge isn't dumb enough to think he can have his cake and eat it too. Markkanen has been a model citizen so far, but if it's looking like another tanking season is in the cards, his agent will remind him of some cold, hard facts. Not that he needs reminding - a 26 year old All Star who's never been to the playoffs knows the clock is ticking on his career.

I see the draft being meh for the Jazz - some nice rookies but nobody who will make any kind of a real difference next season. Good vet FA's (there won't be many) will take one look at our roster and decide they'd rather play somewhere else. Particularly when there's no guarantee of Lauri staying.

The bottom line is, it won't be easy to improve this team in the short term. That's why another tank is coming.

Kessler was the 22nd pick and you see what we did with him right?

Since we could be getting 2 lottery picks in a strong draft I think we could do some damage next year.

 

[HermanG]

This is exactly what's most likely to happen. As mentioned previously, it would also increase the likelihood of Lauri being traded to a contender next season.

I hope Ainge isn't dumb enough to think he can have his cake and eat it too. Markkanen has been a model citizen so far, but if it's looking like another tanking season is in the cards, his agent will remind him of some cold, hard facts. Not that he needs reminding - a 26 year old All Star who's never been to the playoffs knows the clock is ticking on his career.

I see the draft being meh for the Jazz - some nice rookies but nobody who will make any kind of a real difference next season. Good vet FA's (there won't be many) will take one look at our roster and decide they'd rather play somewhere else. Particularly when there's no guarantee of Lauri staying.

The bottom line is, it won't be easy to improve this team in the short term. That's why another tank is coming.

We played Dallas close in their building.

In addition to Lauri we started:
Tec, 28 min 2/8 shooting
KO 27 min 3/8
Agbaji, 25 min 2/11
THT, 33 min 7/14

Bench minutes:
Juzang 14 min 2/9
Jones 23 min 3/3
Dunn 23 min 4/8
Gay 16 min 4/7
JTA 7 min 2/4

You really think its hard to find better players to take those minutes? Even low end FAs are improvement to some of those guys...

 

[hgb]

Then what happens the next year?

1-10 in '24, 1-10 in '25, 1-8 in '26. If not conveyed in '26 nothing more happens. However, if it doesn't convey in '25, strange things happen to our pick swap with Cavs/Wolves in '26. Not sure exactly what...

 

[Tremendous Upside]

We played Dallas close in their building.

The Mavs have lost 7 of their last 10. They suck now.

And they still beat us even though Lauri was red hot and Hardy pulled out all the stops to win.

 

[The Midnight]

1-10 in '24, 1-10 in '25, 1-8 in '26. If not conveyed in '26 nothing more happens. However, if it doesn't convey in '25, strange things happen to our pick swap with Cavs/Wolves in '26. Not sure exactly what...

Wow, so we needed to be bad in '24, or '25, or '26, or we lose the pick all together?

Damn, tough choice.

Do we appease Lauri and start winning from next year? Or tank 1 year to get the pick?

The way DA had been operating, I'm guessing we're doing the same thing we did this year, 1 more year. Play hard for 60 games, then tank 20 games to get the pick.

Then no more tanking for 10 more years.

 

[David Stern]

I hope so. I was listening to Andy Larsen on ESPN700 today and he said if the Jazz can't add another star to pair with Lauri in the offseason, they may decide to stay in asset accumulation mode again next season, and take on bad contracts for first round picks, similar to what they did with taking on Westbrook's contract.

Andy is also not as high on this years draft as a lot of other people.

Thanks for sharing. I’d be curious to see what they consider “getting a star” to look like. Does that mean getting Scoot or Wemby? Or trading for someone? I’ll also be curious to see what Ainge’s plan in free agency is going to be. There was a tiny bit of noise when Kyrie requested the trade this year that Danny Ainge would be someone to watch there. Even though he’s a lil crazy, it would be interesting to see if Kyrie would entertain us as a destination at all.

 

[hgb]

Wow, so we needed to be bad in '24, or '25, or '26, or we lose the pick all together?

Damn, tough choice.

Do we appease Lauri and start winning from next year? Or tank 1 year to get the pick?

The way DA had been operating, I'm guessing we're doing the same thing we did this year, 1 more year. Play hard for 60 games, then tank 20 games to get the pick.

Then no more tanking for 10 more years.

If we're bad three consecutive years (plus this), we keep the pick. That's nowhere near worth it IMHO. The only way that happens is if we actually fail to become not terrible, which I have a hard time seeing.

Best to just be good starting in 23-24 and let OKC have their 19th pick (or so).

 

[HermanG]

The Mavs have lost 7 of their last 10. They suck now.

And they still beat us even though Lauri was red hot and Hardy pulled out all the stops to win.

Why do you insist on taking the most negative perspective possible? We were without 3 of our 4 best players... why not mention that?

Improving this current team we are fielding is as easy of a task that NBA GM can have. Literally throw a blind dart to the FA list and you are gonna hit a significant upgrade or possibly even a guy who is worthy of starting here.

Getting the second star or the contender level starter guys is the task thats gonna be difficult... but thats why picking high on the draft this year is important. We can either:
- Get a guy who can grow to become one of those things OR
- Get a hyped up prospect that we can package in a deal to acquire an established guy from a team who enters a rebuild and wants to stock on drafts / young players

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Why do you insist on taking the most negative perspective possible? We were without 3 of our 4 best players... why not mention that?

Improving this current team we are fielding is as easy of a task that NBA GM can have. Literally throw a blind dart to the FA list and you are gonna hit a significant upgrade or possibly even a guy who is worthy of starting here.

Getting the second star or the contender level starter guys is the task thats gonna be difficult... but thats why picking high on the draft this year is important. We can either:
- Get a guy who can grow to become one of those things OR
- Get a hyped up prospect that we can package in a deal to acquire an established guy from a team who enters a rebuild and wants to stock on drafts / young players

Sure. Everything's possible, I guess. But making plans where you need several uncontrollable things to go your way is another matter. People are supposing that:

- Lauri wants to stay in Utah no matter what
- We hit in the draft
- We find FA's who fit AND can get them
- Ainge wants to get back to the playoffs ASAP (this one is objectively not true since he already went the other way this season)

 

[HermanG]

Wow, so we needed to be bad in '24, or '25, or '26, or we lose the pick all together?

Damn, tough choice.

Do we appease Lauri and start winning from next year? Or tank 1 year to get the pick?

The way DA had been operating, I'm guessing we're doing the same thing we did this year, 1 more year. Play hard for 60 games, then tank 20 games to get the pick.

Then no more tanking for 10 more years.

DA has repeatedly said he doesnt have long term plans because the NBA is so unpredictable that its better to be ready for anything rather than fixating on a set plan. He has put us in a good position to hunt for big names, but he wont force anything (at least not yet).

I see two options:
1) We hit a big name trade along with a targeted upgrade or two and become a legit playoff team and maybe even dark horse contender who will fight for top 6 seeds
2) We do few minor non-committal upgrades with young guys and run with them + current core + rookies we draft into next season and see what they can do and how everything develops... and then we see where we are come trade DL and make appropriate moves (again, only with good value)

Ealiest I can see this team really "pushing" to make improvements is the 2024 offseason because after that 2024-25 season our salary cap situation is likely gonna start turning worse and the clock will be ticking... But I wouldn't be surprised if we made a major deal way before that.