Really? Please enlighten me with this crazy amount of guys who could shoot in college but shot worse in the NBA. I would love to see a list.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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Really? Please enlighten me with this crazy amount of guys who could shoot in college but shot worse in the NBA. I would love to see a list.
This is a funny conversation to me. Yeah Flip shot 28% from 3 but I don't believe for a second that that number is indicative of how he will shoot in the pros. He has a great shooting stroke from the outside and there is no doubt in my mind that he is going to thrive as a stretch big. Sometimes with these young guys it is much more important to trust the eye test rather than just the numbers.
Go through any draft and look at the guys that didn't make it, if they aren't a big it's highly likely that the jump shot didn't translate.
Luke Kennard
32% freshman year (college)
38.3% in 2 years (college)
48.4% this year (NBA)
Malcolm Brogdon
32.4% freshman year (college)
36.5% in 4 years (college)
43.9% this year (NBA)
Gary Harris
37.6% in 2 years (college)
43.7% this year (NBA)
Tyrese Maxey
29.2% freshman year (college)
43.4% this year (NBA)
Corey Kispert
36.5% in 2 years (college)
43% this year (NBA)
Kawhi Leonard
25% in 2 years (college)
41.8% this year (NBA)
Jevon Carter
35.5% in 4 years (college)
41.7% this year (NBA)
Patrick Williams
32% freshman year (college)
41.4% this year (NBA)
Alec Burks
31.3% in 2 years (college)
41.4% this year (NBA)
Grant Williams
29.1% in 3 years (college)
40.2% this year (NBA)
This list is just from looking at the top-20 guys in the league in 3PT%. It’s almost like the NBA has WAY better spacing and you get WAY better shots when you’re not getting all of the defensive attention you get when you’re the best player on your team in college.
32% freshman year (college)
38.3% in 2 years (college)
48.4% this year (NBA)
Malcolm Brogdon
32.4% freshman year (college)
36.5% in 4 years (college)
43.9% this year (NBA)
Gary Harris
37.6% in 2 years (college)
43.7% this year (NBA)
Tyrese Maxey
29.2% freshman year (college)
43.4% this year (NBA)
Corey Kispert
36.5% in 2 years (college)
43% this year (NBA)
Kawhi Leonard
25% in 2 years (college)
41.8% this year (NBA)
Jevon Carter
35.5% in 4 years (college)
41.7% this year (NBA)
Patrick Williams
32% freshman year (college)
41.4% this year (NBA)
Alec Burks
31.3% in 2 years (college)
41.4% this year (NBA)
Grant Williams
29.1% in 3 years (college)
40.2% this year (NBA)
This list is just from looking at the top-20 guys in the league in 3PT%. It’s almost like the NBA has WAY better spacing and you get WAY better shots when you’re not getting all of the defensive attention you get when you’re the best player on your team in college.
Clowney is also a 65% FT shooter compared to Filipowski at 77%
And Filipowski was a 1st option. Clowney was like a 4th/5th option.
Hayward also shot sub 30% as a Sophomore. Austin Reaves shot 26% and 31% his two years at Oklahoma.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
it's really hard to tell whose shooting is going to improve once they get to the league and who won't improve at all and who will regress. the mechanics is one thing to look at, but most people just have solid mechanics - nothing special, not terrible not Hawkins beautiful. and it isn't just about mechanics, it's work ethic, are they in the gym getting shots up, are they put in positions to succeed on their nba team, does the coach have patience with them, do they get the green light, nba spacing works better for some than others, etc, etc. so many factors, many you just can't see and have no clue of. draft good, skilled players, athletes, guys with length for their position, and hope for the best. kawhi is a great example - the spurs drafted a dude who was a really good college player, a guy who could defend, rebound, who played hard, had positional size. his stroke was okay, certainly nothing special, but i imagine they though they could work with it. worst case you get an energy guy who can defend multiple positions - best case, you get who kawhi became.
KO shot 33% in 3 years in college. Mitchell shot 33% in 2 years in college.
LogGrad98
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Jimmer shot 39% from 3 in college and 37% from 3 in the NBA.
Adam Morrison shot 37% in college, 42% his last year, and managed 33% in the nba.
I am sure we can find a lot more that did worse. My bet is it is a pretty normal distribution for how many find their shot in the nba vs how many lose their shot in the nba.
Adam Morrison shot 37% in college, 42% his last year, and managed 33% in the nba.
I am sure we can find a lot more that did worse. My bet is it is a pretty normal distribution for how many find their shot in the nba vs how many lose their shot in the nba.
The things that will really swing Flip as a potential lottery pick will be his wingspan and athletic testing.
I'm guessing a 7'1 wingspan at just under 7' in shoes. I think the surprise will be that his max vert will be 35''.
If he ends up being bigger than everyone expects (like over 7' in shoes, with over a +2'' wingspan, that would give him a nice boost.
I'm guessing a 7'1 wingspan at just under 7' in shoes. I think the surprise will be that his max vert will be 35''.
If he ends up being bigger than everyone expects (like over 7' in shoes, with over a +2'' wingspan, that would give him a nice boost.
He shot 24 total threes in his entire career lmao.
I wouldn’t consider going from 39% to 37% losing your shot.
Jimmer and Morrison just flat out busted out of the NBA (mostly due to lack of defense), so they never really got a chance to hone in as NBA 3pt shooters.
Derrick Williams from Arizona might be in that camp.
View: https://twitter.com/MavsDraft/status/1643327827503136771
Dude has a crazy % from the straight on 3.
He took 90 threes total in 2 years in college. Essentially 1.3 attempts per game. Not enough of a sample size I think.
If you take anything away from these numbers at all it seems like 3PT% as a freshman is one of the least important numbers there is.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
that and sample size matters. you look at guys like zhaire smith and jaden springer who had unbelievable percentages from three as freshmen but only took 1 three per game. both major busts mostly because they couldn't shoot for ****.
Smith a bust because he got injured constantly and nearly died from a peanut injury that basically zapped his body of all muscle mass.