Who will be the starting point guard on opening night?

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This is kind of the issue and why I can't quite get comfortable with the team as is. Collins, Lauri, Walker are all play finishers... JC is a bucket getter... so what guy provides what we MIGHT need as far as being a ball mover, floor spacer, perimeter defender. Its kind of why I'm not a huge fan of the Collins deal. On its surface its fine... if we had Mike and JC as the backcourt I can see it being pretty good because Mike can playmake, setup, and space off ball.

I think KO also helped with some of that. He is a turnover machine but a ball mover and much better passer than Collins. Our egalitarian offense could go sideways if the ball isn't moving in the direction of the best play finishers (Lauri/Kessler are the most efficient by a lot). Its why I'd love to get a guy like TJ McConnell to start until Key is ready... just feels like we need someone on the court who's primary motivation is to make sure the most important people are eating.

I'm trying to be patient though because the roster still likely has one more move at some point and maybe a couple by season's end. Sexton, JC, Collins, KO, THT are all guys I could see getting moved.

At times KO felt like the MVP of the team with his playmaking. The Collins experience is going to be weird. Hopefully Lauri can really step forward and adopt some KO-isms so he can improve in that area.

 

[Park Bites]

I look at it as who fits best with the other players that will be starting.

Jordan Clarkson
Lauri Markkanen
John Collins
Walker Kessler

3 of those players need the ball to score so the best person right now is someone that will run the offense and the best for that is Dunn. Sexton looks for his shot too much. George still has some development and THT is too inefficient.

Now if you went with Clarkson at the PG and started say Agbaji then that is also a very impressive lineup with Agbaji not needing the ball as much.

Now if you knew that Agbaji was your guy at the 2 guard and you wanted Clarkson to be your 6th man again then Sexton might be the best option.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

At times KO felt like the MVP of the team with his playmaking. The Collins experience is going to be weird. Hopefully Lauri can really step forward and adopt some KO-isms so he can improve in that area.

His year was super underrated. His defense sucks but its not Kanter bad... he fills in so many gaps (insert @Hearsky mom joke here) depending on what we need.

I seriously doubt they do it... but I think it would make a ton of sense to use Collins as a super sub off the bench. You could still play him more than KO but I think I like a JC, Ochai, KO, Lauri, Kessler lineup more than just about any other iteration of a starting lineup. Dunn, JC, Collins, Lauri, Kessler may not have enough shooting though I think Dunn can play the "setup man" ball mover role. THT, Sexton, JC will kind of have to fight their nature as basketball players to fill the role... though maybe it helps them improve.

I was super encouraged with Key as he didn't seem like the JC dribble the **** out of the ball type I thought he could be... his hot shooting was awesome but his willingness as a passer was super encouraging. Maybe he becomes the guy by midseason.

I just don't see how we balance - feeding Lauri... keeping John Collins happy and fed while pushing his trade value up... getting playmaking with the combo guards we have... playing winning basketball... and giving proper development time to the rooks. Hardy is awesome so he could figure it out. I just think last year's squad made so much more sense. Preseason I wasn't sure about the KO/Lauri/Vando frontcourt as it was a bit wonky but Mike/JC backcourt made perfect sense. Once I also saw how effing good Lauri is on both ends of the floor and Walker development the KO/Lauri/Kessler frontcourt is pretty awesome. I wonder if we took Collins a more talented player but worse fit and effed it up a bit... unless we add a dynamic playmaker in the backcourt or on the wing.

I guess what I'm saying is... if this is close to a finished product I don't get it. If this is just trying to improve the asset base of the franchise and Collins, Sexton, JC are flipped in season okay I guess. I think the draft is an A-/B+ but the rest of the offseason is kind of a C/C+

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

To answer the question... if I was making a traditional lineup and trying to balance the roster and assuming 4 of our starters are JC, Collins, Lauri, Kessler... I'd choose Dunn to play the role of set up others and defend on the best backcourt player. He may only play 20 minutes or less a night though.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Man... using complete hindsight to redo the 2023 offseason for us... I'd much rather have given Bruce Brown the money Indy did than trade for John Collins... would just waive Rudy Gay. I think Collins is talented just not a great fit for us as currently constituted.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This is kind of the issue and why I can't quite get comfortable with the team as is. Collins, Lauri, Walker are all play finishers... JC is a bucket getter... so what guy provides what we MIGHT need as far as being a ball mover, floor spacer, perimeter defender. Its kind of why I'm not a huge fan of the Collins deal. On its surface its fine... if we had Mike and JC as the backcourt I can see it being pretty good because Mike can playmake, setup, and space off ball.

I think KO also helped with some of that. He is a turnover machine but a ball mover and much better passer than Collins. Our egalitarian offense could go sideways if the ball isn't moving in the direction of the best play finishers (Lauri/Kessler are the most efficient by a lot). Its why I'd love to get a guy like TJ McConnell to start until Key is ready... just feels like we need someone on the court who's primary motivation is to make sure the most important people are eating.

I'm trying to be patient though because the roster still likely has one more move at some point and maybe a couple by season's end. Sexton, JC, Collins, KO, THT are all guys I could see getting moved.

The roster being non-sensical is evidence that another feel-it-out-then-maybe-tank-down-the-stretch strategy might be in play.

It looks to me like Ainge was just opportunistic with Collins and is being patient until opportunism actually yields a roster-construction that makes sense.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Man... using complete hindsight to redo the 2023 offseason for us... I'd much rather have given Bruce Brown the money Indy did than trade for John Collins... would just waive Rudy Gay. I think Collins is talented just not a great fit for us as currently constituted.

Draft Whitmore and Key. Use #28 on basically anything else (a different player [Leonard Miller - who I was unsure of at 16 but would’ve been thrilled to have at 28] or a trade). Throw the sink at Reaves, if it doesn’t work then just rent Wood or Oubre on a 1+1 (team option).

Offseason has kinda sucked tbh.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The roster being non-sensical is evidence that another feel-it-out-then-maybe-tank-down-the-stretch strategy might be in play.

It looks to me like Ainge was just opportunistic and is being patient until opportunism actually yields a roster-construction that makes sense.

This feels right but I kind of hate the approach. For the opportunities he has taken to yield something they will need to be maximized. I can't see how Collins role is WAY better here (as of right now) and the weird logjam of combo guards (which could be complicated with a Herro acquisition) isn't ideal for increasing their trade value or maybe stumbling on something that becomes awesome.

Complete hindsight... but I would rather have gotten Brown and had a roster that made more sense and assets you aren't as tied into if they don't work out.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This feels right but I kind of hate the approach. For the opportunities he has taken to yield something they will need to be maximized. I can't see how Collins role is WAY better here (as of right now) and the weird logjam of combo guards (which could be complicated with a Herro acquisition) isn't ideal for increasing their trade value or maybe stumbling on something that becomes awesome.

Complete hindsight... but I would rather have gotten Brown and had a roster that made more sense and assets you aren't as tied into if they don't work out.

I am bracing myself for getting flamed after some big games and crazy dunks from Collins but I still basically hate the move, at least in the broader context of the draft and Paul Reed nonsense.

Doesn’t feel like the org is serious about winning, just that the market was all big forwards so they just approached it with a BPA (most talented) mentality.

Your assessment that there actually is no plan and Ainge is just opportunistic is looking very prescient right now.

 

[fishonjazz]

Sexton

• Pros
  • Most efficient scorer
  • Decent wide open C&S option
  • Tries on D, good against other small guard options in 1-on-1 situations
  • Best in open court situations
  • Excellent floater
  • Great FTR
• Cons
  • Bad team defender
  • Lacks size
  • Good shooter, but slow release means he has to be wide open
  • Tunnel Vision
  • Poor passing accuracy
  • Poor rebounder

THT

• Pros
  • Defensive playmaking
  • Most talented passer, especially on lobs
  • Best at getting to rim
  • High switchability on defense
  • Exciting/Momentum shifting plays
  • 22 years old
  • Fun
• Cons
  • Erratic
  • Poor Finisher
  • Poor shooter
  • Not as good defending PG's with heavy screening actions
  • Despite being most talented passer, he does get tunnel vision

Dunn

• Pros
  • Safe offensively, doesnt do too much outside his comfort areas
  • Excellent floater
  • Best overall defender
  • Short term deal makes him easy to replace w/ Keyonte moving forward
• Cons
  • Older
  • Reluctant shooter
  • Poor FTR
  • Least future potential

Clarkson

• Pros
  • Most experienced player
  • Highest ceiling of current potential
  • Not the most efficient shooter, but provides the best spacing because of his quick trigger and respect level
  • Showed improved playmaking last season, could be in for another leap if given opportunity
  • Vibes
  • Allows Ochai to start at the 2 (assuming if you start anyone else, Clarkson has to start at the other guard spot)
• Cons
  • Tunnel Vision
  • Erratic shots
  • Inconsistent shooter
  • Poor defender

Keyonte

• Pros
  • Seemingly has most future potential and will likely be the future starting PG
  • Most talented shooter
• Cons
  • Is a rookie
  • Thin frame will make it tough on him defensively starting out

More and more I'm thinking Clarkson will just start because none of the other options are clearly superior and the emphasis will be on getting Ochai minutes as the starter.

Really good post. Dont disagree with any of the pro/con stuff.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Draft Whitmore and Key. Use #28 on basically anything else (a different player [Leonard Miller - who I was unsure of at 16 but would’ve been thrilled to have at 28] or a trade). Throw the sink at Reaves, if it doesn’t work then just rent Wood or Oubre on a 1+1 (team option).

Offseason has kinda sucked tbh.

I'm still very much in on Tay Henny so draft wise I wouldn't change much. Whitmore showed he was good in summer league but I'm not sure he proved any of the things he needed to prove to be a good functional winning player. I have bad feeling about how that all works out for Houston and him... I won't blame them because there is clearly stuff between medicals and personality stuff.

Miller at 28 is a no brainer imo... but I also am okay with the bet made there... it makes sense. Who knows... maybe Sensabaugh grows some knees... he's certainly talented.

The bet we made with Collins doesn't seem great and we have two weird roster logjams... that aren't easy to navigate our way out of.... if there was a good follow up deal with KO or Sexton or something like that then great...I get that John was a buy low "bargain" but not sure we can turn that asset all the way around. The JC deal is good and helpful but now you have JC, Sexton, Ochai, THT, George vying for 96 minutes of playing time at the guard spot... and are involved in the Herro rumors?

We will see what ends up happening but I would have thrown the bag at FVV for a couple years (only two years guaranteed) or Brown... or a myriad of other options including kinda kicking the can down the road type of stuff. I just thought the roster would take a little more shape and its kind of gone the other way.... it makes less sense now and I don't see the master chess move that changes that.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Your assessment that there actually is no plan and Ainge is just opportunistic is looking very prescient right now.

Basically this... I think I would be opportunistic in a way that helped the roster take some shape rather than "just acquire talent" type of way. I don't think it will be catastrophic and I think there are ways out of it... and a chance it works out quite well. I just think a little more weight needs to be put on basketball fit than talent. Talent doesn't smooth over everything and if the fit is wonky it could hurt several "assets". It just seems we need consolidation and are more into collection and retention.