Likely Rebuild Timeline / Strategy

[HermanG]

I've been thinking about Danny Ainge's actions to-date. It is clear that he attempted to his 2013 Celtics/Nets trade—sending star players away for future draft picks that would end up being lotto picks. It worked for Boston - trading washed, aging superstars like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets paid off - the Nets were cheeks (as everyone predicted). ending up in Tatum / Brown.

Key difference with Gobert and Donovan trades: Gobert and Mitchell are still very much in their primes, not past them.

Ainge bet on two things:

1. Anthony Edwards not reaching his ceiling / potential
2. Donovan Mitchell leaving Cleveland via free agency

In typical Jazz luck, neither of these have and will pan out. Edwards will likely sign a super-max and keep the Wolves as a 1-4 seed, and Don signed an extension, locking him up for the foreseeable future in a weaker eastern conference.

Ainge is seeing this - he's not an idiot. This has increased his pressure on Hardy / coaching staff to ramp up the forced tank. That maximizes our ability to end up with a top-4 superstar potential young talent.

I'm guessing the rebuild over next few years is the following-

• Embrace full tank over next two seasons to secure two top-four draft picks.
• Focus on player development to ensure our young guys today turn into solid role players
• Maintain cap flexibility to acquire disgruntled superstars by 2026 season

By the 2026 season, the goal would be to have:

• Two young, foundational high-ceiling / low-floor stars from high draft picks
• A strong supporting cast of developed players
• Lauri Markkanen still being in his prime
• 1-2 disgruntled superstars via either free agency or us trading away the farm (future draft picks)

Thoughts?

I dont think Ainge has had any problem with the concept of tanking the past two years, but the real plug stopping him from doing so has been Ryan Smith who acts more like a superfan than a cold calculative business-first type of NBA owner. I think DA actually did try to go the route Smith wanted him to go (big game hunting), but the right opportunities just werent there.

For the plan going forward.. I'm not sure they have their mind set on exactly how it should go. What I do know though is there is no "secuing top 4" in existence, as top 5 is the absolute best draft position you can "secure".

 

[JimLes]

Picks are still picks. They might not be great lotto tickets, but all-star are still picked every few years in the late teens-twenties.

We've had almost a two-digit number of first round picks the past 2 years and a bit. How many All-Stars do you figure we've picked looking at our current roster?

 

[JimLes]

I dont think Ainge has had any problem with the concept of tanking the past two years, but the real plug stopping him from doing so has been Ryan Smith who acts more like a superfan than a cold calculative business-first type of NBA owner. I think DA actually did try to go the route Smith wanted him to go (big game hunting), but the right opportunities just werent there.

The right opportunities were there and are there, constantly. Stars get traded and have been traded every year, including this one. Aside from maybe 4-5 players in the league, everyone has a price. We've also seen what that price has been lately. The Jazz have the assets to outbid all but maybe two teams, and are located in a place players seem to hate passionately, so it's not like the organization are not aware that they'd have to overpay.

We've got like ten FRPs for the rest of this decade. If it takes seven of those to get Giannis, just ****ing do it.

 

[jom2003]

Strategy is simple. Nail your picks. We never get out of rebuild if we continue to draft poorly

 

[whatthe]

Two years ago, we should of spent picks to move up to get Bilal. But that was still a guess. The road to rebuild is painful and not always magical.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The right opportunities were there and are there, constantly. Stars get traded and have been traded every year, including this one. Aside from maybe 4-5 players in the league, everyone has a price. We've also seen what that price has been lately. The Jazz have the assets to outbid all but maybe two teams, and are located in a place players seem to hate passionately, so it's not like the organization are not aware that they'd have to overpay.

We've got like ten FRPs for the rest of this decade. If it takes seven of those to get Giannis, just ****ing do it.

I don't agree with you on this, but it's important to distinguish a top 30 player star vs a top 10 player superstar.

Top 30 players are likely always going to be available, but even then to get one requires a very high price. We would have needed to include 5 picks to outbid New York for Bridges.

Top 10 players are not available for any price unless they are asking out or the franchise is going in to rebuild.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I also dont think Ainge "bet" on those two things. I think he just got the best possible package he could at the time.

I’m more and more convinced Ainge isn’t the “5 year plan” type. He is opportunistic and goes in a general direction as opportunities present themselves. I’d say we plan to be ****** for a year and see what happens in the lotto. After that we could be ****** again or he may see enough promise and get an opportunity to put the foot on the gas. For good or bad I don’t think there is a rigid disciplined 3-4 year plan. Every 12 months or so they look at where they are and have a few options to pursue.

I agree he didn’t bet on one particular thing happening. He bet on uncertainty and just general chaos that can happen.

I think right now I am as comfortable as I have been in the DA era at understanding the current plan and not makes sense. It may not work… that’s okay. We are giving ourselves a chance to get the kind of luck we need in multiple ways.

 

[HermanG]

The right opportunities were there and are there, constantly. Stars get traded and have been traded every year, including this one. Aside from maybe 4-5 players in the league, everyone has a price. We've also seen what that price has been lately. The Jazz have the assets to outbid all but maybe two teams, and are located in a place players seem to hate passionately, so it's not like the organization are not aware that they'd have to overpay.

We've got like ten FRPs for the rest of this decade. If it takes seven of those to get Giannis, just ****ing do it.

That may be reality in NBA2K but in the real world most star players are in teams who are trying to win, and those teams dont trade good players in exchange for draft picks unless they first decide to enter a rebuild or the star asks out.

This is not even close to being a matter of debate.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm resigned to it being 2 tank seasons unfortunately. Hopefully a miracle happens next offseason but not very optimistic. Ainge pulled off miracles in Boston but Utah is just another animal.

Initially thought they could get lucky draft, someone like Flagg and use their warchest to bring in another star such as Giannis (or whoever). Unfortunately I don't think those Cle/Minn picks are going to have much value. The Bucks have already traded all their picks so they can't tank unless a team like Houston trades them the Phoenix unprotected FRPs. The Jazz have a warchest but can't compete with OKC or Houston in terms of pick quality or high potential rookie contract players to send back in a deal for a star.

I bet it ends up being two tank heavy years but if DA finds an opportunity he will pursue it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I’m more and more convinced Ainge isn’t the “5 year plan” type. He is opportunistic and goes in a general direction as opportunities present themselves. I’d say we plan to be ****** for a year and see what happens in the lotto. After that we could be ****** again or he may see enough promise and get an opportunity to put the foot on the gas. For good or bad I don’t think there is a rigid disciplined 3-4 year plan. Every 12 months or so they look at where they are and have a few options to pursue.

I agree he didn’t bet on one particular thing happening. He bet on uncertainty and just general chaos that can happen.

I think right now I am as comfortable as I have been in the DA era at understanding the current plan and not makes sense. It may not work… that’s okay. We are giving ourselves a chance to get the kind of luck we need in multiple ways.

IT does seem like they just didnt value the last two drafts and they are clearly all in on this one. So I do think there is some sort of plan? That's a bit of reach, but this year is definitely different. Maybe they ultimately never want to convey to OKC and they didnt want to be awful awful for 4 straight years? I think they kind of know their current vets will never have value outside of being expirings, so they are all in on the youth now.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

IT does seem like they just didnt value the last two drafts and they are clearly all in on this one. So I do think there is some sort of plan? That's a bit of reach, but this year is definitely different. Maybe they ultimately never want to convey to OKC and they didnt want to be awful awful for 4 straight years? I think they kind of know their current vets will never have value outside of being expirings, so they are all in on the youth now.

Oh I think they valued the 2023 draft. I think they got caught in the air. They misdiagnosed a couple things and then starting 10-3 with Lauri poised to be an AS while they host the AS game… they were trying to move a bunch of dudes before the season and just wanted more than they were being offered.

Last year I believe they were fine conveying the pick if they ended up in the play in so I think they likely didn’t value last years draft. When they saw they were mid they made the decision to tank for now.

I have it on very good authority that the Jazz indeed were in on Bridges and had a BIG offer out there if they could get PG to commit. And PG was considering it. It seems far fetched of course but it was out there.

That’s why I think it’s so much more flexible than some of us think. I’m cool with anyone thinking how they want of course cuz we are all kinda guessing.

 

[KqWIN]

Oh I think they valued the 2023 draft. I think they got caught in the air. They misdiagnosed a couple things and then starting 10-3 with Lauri poised to be an AS while they host the AS game… they were trying to move a bunch of dudes before the season and just wanted more than they were being offered.

Last year I believe they were fine conveying the pick if they ended up in the play in so I think they likely didn’t value last years draft. When they saw they were mid they made the decision to tank for now.

I have it on very good authority that the Jazz indeed were in on Bridges and had a BIG offer out there if they could get PG to commit. And PG was considering it. It seems far fetched of course but it was out there.

That’s why I think it’s so much more flexible than some of us think. I’m cool with anyone thinking how they want of course cuz we are all kinda guessing.

To some degree, the plan for every single team is to make the big moves that make them a contender right now. It's just not feasible to happen. I think DA tried and failed twice in a row and he will likely try and come up short once again this summer. I don't think there is a strong preference to tank, but going the other direction and trying to win is not actually possible unless you pull of some crazy PG+Mikal type sweep. Can't snap your fingers and find star trades. The good thing is that we are no longer half and half. I think we're done with this mediocre business. Last two seasons were wasteful.