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2024-25 Western Conference Prediction Contest

Okay, I know the season has started but as the person who started this contest many years ago, I'm asking for special dispensation. Also, I have not seen any scores and the only game I watched was the Sixers-Bucks last night.


OKC
MIN
SAC
DEN
HOU
DAL
PHX
MEM
NOL
SAS
GSW
LAL
LAC
POR
UTA
 
silesian said:
Okay, I know the season has started but as the person who started this contest many years ago, I'm asking for special dispensation. Also, I have not seen any scores and the only game I watched was the Sixers-Bucks last night.


OKC
MIN
SAC
DEN
HOU
DAL
PHX
MEM
NOL
SAS
GSW
LAL
LAC
POR
UTA
Click to expand...
Im fine with it, if no one else objects?
 
1. OKC
2. Dallas
3. Denver
4. Phoenix
5. Minnesota
6. Memphis
7. LA Lakers
8. New Orleans
9. Golden State
10. Sacramento
11. Houston
12. LA Clippers
13. San Antonio
14. Utah
15. Portland
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
My top 6 are all consensus. Where I differ is putting both the Spurs and Blazers above the Jazz. The Blazers really impressed me with their length and athleticism in pre-season. Simons and Grant should be healthier for them this year, and adding Avdija and Clingan in the off-season should help them. Among the Jazz, Blazers and Spurs, the order should come down to who wants to lose more and pulls the most whacky lineups and DNPs. Jazz showed a really impressive ability to lose after the ASB last year. I think they'll pull the red handle earlier this season. Collins and Clarkson will be featured early for trades. Cody, Brice and Flip should be taking heavy minutes by the 2nd half of the season.
Click to expand...
I think we're stuck with Collins unless we're willing to send out some assets to incentivize someone to take on his deal
 
Updated the OP with the first rankings. The date is the last date of games that were included.

Interesting start:
  • @Release the Kraken who had the most outlandish line according to variance, has a commanding lead at this point
  • However, alphabetic order would actually lead if permitted to participate
  • Random order would also rank 3rd at this point
  • Consensus ranks in the middle, which is pretty much what you'd expect from that boring dunce
The biggest swing teams for these first rankings are GSW, LAL, HOU and SAC who are costing a lot of points to many of the contestants. They were 4 of the 5 teams with the most positional variance, and since they are not in the middle (6-9 range) they are having a big impact.

RtK nailed LAL and SAC (+0.5 from them) and had both GSW and HOU much higher than average which explains his massive lead in this first score check. GSW for instance is costing him just 1 point while them being #1 costs an average of 7.3 points to others.
 
HermanG said:
Updated the OP with the first rankings. The date is the last date of games that were included.

Interesting start:
  • @Release the Kraken who had the most outlandish line according to variance, has a commanding lead at this point
  • However, alphabetic order would actually lead if permitted to participate
  • Random order would also rank 3rd at this point
  • Consensus ranks in the middle, which is pretty much what you'd expect from that boring dunce
The biggest swing teams for these first rankings are GSW, LAL, HOU and SAC who are costing a lot of points to many of the contestants. They were 4 of the 5 teams with the most positional variance, and since they are not in the middle (6-9 range) they are having a big impact.

RtK nailed LAL and SAC (+0.5 from them) and had both GSW and HOU much higher than average which explains his massive lead in this first score check. GSW for instance is costing him just 1 point while them being #1 costs an average of 7.3 points to others.
Click to expand...
Pretty hilarious that we are all worse at this than alphabetical order.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
One thing to watch out for is that basically every year there is a young fringe playoff team that jumps in to the top 4 and an old contender that drops out. Houston and Denver fit that description most based off of previous years, but I have a hard time believing those things will happen. You could probably just count Memphis and LAC as those teams this year, even if it isn't exactly how the trend has gone.
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Houston on track as predicted. I still can't believe it, but that pattern is basically undefeated.
 
Did anyone see GSW as a top team in the WC? I think that's the biggest surprise, along with MIN's and NOL's rough start.

It's still early for this analysis though. There are 6 teams within 1 game right now.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Did anyone see GSW as a top team in the WC? I think that's the biggest surprise, along with MIN's and NOL's rough start.

It's still early for this analysis though. There are 6 teams within 1 game right now.
Click to expand...
@Release the Kraken had them at #2, which was the highest. Most had them in the middle third.

The top 5 teams that are costing the most points vs their average rank:
MIN 7.5
GSW 7.3
HOU 7.25
LAC 7
LAL 5.25

The bottom 5 teams in that category:
OKC 0.8
SAS 0.9
UTA 1.2
POR 1.5
MEM 1.85
 
Last edited:
OP updated with Dec 29 standings.

Few points:
  • Alphabetic order still holding strong. Last ranking it lead with the fewest points, and its still 2nd
  • GSW (from 1 to 9.5) and MEM (from 8 to 2) were by far the biggest swing teams that changed the standings from last ranking.
  • Concensus improved from 61 to 57, which means that the standings are now 4 points closer to what we expected
  • Minny being 10th is donating 5 or more points to everyone
  • Both Los Angeles teams still hanging in the top 6 is giving grief to many of our contestants, as they were ranked outside top 10 by most (Clippers were ranked 9th by the most optimistic prediction and Lakers average rank was 9.35)
 
OP updated with current standings.

@Handlogten's Heros and @KqWIN jumped to share the lead at this late stage, but its a close race at the top and I assume we may see some small standings changes that may swing the outcome.

Very few people know this, but there is a tie breaker rule for the top spot that requires the contestants to have an actual wrestling contest to decide the winner.
 
Few notes:
  • Alphabetic order has ranked #1 in EVERY score check. Thats kinda insane.
  • RTK, who I cannot find to tag, wins the "in-season elevator" award for highest positional variance. He was #1 in first score check, then fell to #17 in the 2nd and now is back up to #3. He had the most unique line that differed from concensus by a country mile so something like this should have been expected.
  • @SoberasHotRod wins the "steady ship" award as he has had the least positional variance in these score checks (#T-5, #3, #T-4)
 
HermanG said:
OP updated with current standings.

@Handlogten's Heros and @KqWIN jumped to share the lead at this late stage, but its a close race at the top and I assume we may see some small standings changes that may swing the outcome.

Very few people know this, but there is a tie breaker rule for the top spot that requires the contestants to have an actual wrestling contest to decide the winner.
Click to expand...
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