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2024-25 Western Conference Prediction Contest

Alright all predictions are locked in. I will put the standings up in the OP and hide the rules in a spoiler later.. but here are some interesting stats and details about the predictions. If you want other stats, dont be afraid to ask. I got tables, arrays and datasets all ready. ;)

All predictions were unique.

Consensus ranking:

TeamRank
OKC1
MIN2
DEN3
DAL4
PHX5
MEM6
GSW7
SAC8
NOP9
LAL10
HOU11
LAC12
SAS13
UTA14
POR15


Hive mind award (closest to consensus):
@Ferguson_Mellochill, @Handlogten's Heros and @hgb (all scoring 8 points against consensus)

Bold prection award (furthest from consensus):
@Release the Kraken (54 points against consensus)

Wild card teams (top 3 in positional variance):
1. Grizzlies
2. Kings
3. Lakers

Consensus teams (bottom 3 in variance):
1. Suns (!!!!!)
2. Jazz
3. Thunder

OKC would have dominated the consensus team race if it wasnt for one 6th place vote. Everyone else had them at 1 or 2.
 
My top 6 are all consensus. Where I differ is putting both the Spurs and Blazers above the Jazz. The Blazers really impressed me with their length and athleticism in pre-season. Simons and Grant should be healthier for them this year, and adding Avdija and Clingan in the off-season should help them. Among the Jazz, Blazers and Spurs, the order should come down to who wants to lose more and pulls the most whacky lineups and DNPs. Jazz showed a really impressive ability to lose after the ASB last year. I think they'll pull the red handle earlier this season. Collins and Clarkson will be featured early for trades. Cody, Brice and Flip should be taking heavy minutes by the 2nd half of the season.
 
Oh and btw, a small tip to those who arent stat nerds.

The teams with the highest positional variance are the "swing teams" that you can follow in the standings. Anyone who does well on them is likely doing well in the competition. Missing the mark on the consensus teams has much less overall impact on the competition as if you missed them then most of the other contestants also missed on them.

So according to variance and standard deviation, I would put the swing teams into three tiers which are:

Tier 1 (highest impact):
Grizzlies and Kings

Tier 2 (high impact):
Lakers and Rockets

Tier 3 (medium impact):
Warriors and Spurs

If you nailed all 6 of those teams then there is a high chance you are winning or in a race with only few horses in it.
 
Okay, I know the season has started but as the person who started this contest many years ago, I'm asking for special dispensation. Also, I have not seen any scores and the only game I watched was the Sixers-Bucks last night.


OKC
MIN
SAC
DEN
HOU
DAL
PHX
MEM
NOL
SAS
GSW
LAL
LAC
POR
UTA
 
silesian said:
Okay, I know the season has started but as the person who started this contest many years ago, I'm asking for special dispensation. Also, I have not seen any scores and the only game I watched was the Sixers-Bucks last night.


OKC
MIN
SAC
DEN
HOU
DAL
PHX
MEM
NOL
SAS
GSW
LAL
LAC
POR
UTA
Click to expand...
Im fine with it, if no one else objects?
 
1. OKC
2. Dallas
3. Denver
4. Phoenix
5. Minnesota
6. Memphis
7. LA Lakers
8. New Orleans
9. Golden State
10. Sacramento
11. Houston
12. LA Clippers
13. San Antonio
14. Utah
15. Portland
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
My top 6 are all consensus. Where I differ is putting both the Spurs and Blazers above the Jazz. The Blazers really impressed me with their length and athleticism in pre-season. Simons and Grant should be healthier for them this year, and adding Avdija and Clingan in the off-season should help them. Among the Jazz, Blazers and Spurs, the order should come down to who wants to lose more and pulls the most whacky lineups and DNPs. Jazz showed a really impressive ability to lose after the ASB last year. I think they'll pull the red handle earlier this season. Collins and Clarkson will be featured early for trades. Cody, Brice and Flip should be taking heavy minutes by the 2nd half of the season.
Click to expand...
I think we're stuck with Collins unless we're willing to send out some assets to incentivize someone to take on his deal
 
Updated the OP with the first rankings. The date is the last date of games that were included.

Interesting start:
  • @Release the Kraken who had the most outlandish line according to variance, has a commanding lead at this point
  • However, alphabetic order would actually lead if permitted to participate
  • Random order would also rank 3rd at this point
  • Consensus ranks in the middle, which is pretty much what you'd expect from that boring dunce
The biggest swing teams for these first rankings are GSW, LAL, HOU and SAC who are costing a lot of points to many of the contestants. They were 4 of the 5 teams with the most positional variance, and since they are not in the middle (6-9 range) they are having a big impact.

RtK nailed LAL and SAC (+0.5 from them) and had both GSW and HOU much higher than average which explains his massive lead in this first score check. GSW for instance is costing him just 1 point while them being #1 costs an average of 7.3 points to others.
 
HermanG said:
Updated the OP with the first rankings. The date is the last date of games that were included.

Interesting start:
  • @Release the Kraken who had the most outlandish line according to variance, has a commanding lead at this point
  • However, alphabetic order would actually lead if permitted to participate
  • Random order would also rank 3rd at this point
  • Consensus ranks in the middle, which is pretty much what you'd expect from that boring dunce
The biggest swing teams for these first rankings are GSW, LAL, HOU and SAC who are costing a lot of points to many of the contestants. They were 4 of the 5 teams with the most positional variance, and since they are not in the middle (6-9 range) they are having a big impact.

RtK nailed LAL and SAC (+0.5 from them) and had both GSW and HOU much higher than average which explains his massive lead in this first score check. GSW for instance is costing him just 1 point while them being #1 costs an average of 7.3 points to others.
Click to expand...
Pretty hilarious that we are all worse at this than alphabetical order.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
One thing to watch out for is that basically every year there is a young fringe playoff team that jumps in to the top 4 and an old contender that drops out. Houston and Denver fit that description most based off of previous years, but I have a hard time believing those things will happen. You could probably just count Memphis and LAC as those teams this year, even if it isn't exactly how the trend has gone.
Click to expand...
Houston on track as predicted. I still can't believe it, but that pattern is basically undefeated.
 
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