The Dark Days

[jazznik]

Don't worry, there are still people carrying water for Ainge and his terrible picks. Keyonte is a future 20pt scorer and Cody will become an NBA level 3&D guy. And so on.

Ainge is in an interesting position. He made very well received moves in his first several months in Utah by trading the vets for a collection of picks and some players who turned out being really good (Lauri, Kessler, Sexton). But since then he made a lot of questionable moves (trading Conley to MIN, Agbaji and Collins trades, lackluster drafting for two years...).

I think this offseason could become a make-or-break time for Danny. If the Jazz get a star prospect or two in 2025 then everything is forgotten and Ainge's strategy will be validated. But if they draft someone like Hendricks or Cody then he may end up being in the hot seat and rumors will start swirling.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If your definition of "failure" is "didn't win the title", sure.

If your definition of "failure" is "didn't become a competitive playoff team", absolutely not.

I mean what's funny is that the outright tank teams like Philly are labeled a failure for becoming a competitive playoff team.

Plenty of teams have tried very hard to be competitive playoff teams and ended up ****** on accident. Its also a route that leads to failure a lot. Just because a team like Detroit ends up at the bottom of the conference every year doesn't mean they aren't trying.

Some of you become so enamored with the very rare instances where all-out tanking doesn't end up in complete distaster that you get absolute tunnel vision. When you want to trade a player like Walker Kessler to squeeze out a few more losses, that's when you know you've completely lost the plot.

At this point I'm on the keep Walker train so I'm good there. If the difference between 4th and 6th in the lotto rankings is playing and keeping a guy like Jordan Clarkson or Kris Dunn or Mike Conley... that's where offloading a vet makes 100% sense. Guys like Walker, Collin, maybe John now it becomes harder to evaluate.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

What strategy available to us is better, more reliable, or leads to more sustainable success? Even if it is not to build a title contender.

No matter what happens you will have to go through cycles. They can take the edge off of the sucky part if they want but it also lowers the ceiling. Its not about rooting for a playoff team... its about rooting for a team that MIGHT make the play in or a team that outright sucks. There will be down cycles eventually... what is the downside into not leaning into the down cycle? Maybe you hit on a Giannis but you are more likely to become the Bulls/Magic/Wiz (Vuc/Fournier edition).

When you boil it all down every strategy is more likely to end in failure. Pick the least ****** of ****** options.

The Jazz probably are a playoff team if they signed Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks over the last two summers (simply because their guard play is so catastrophic).

The Jazz were obviously aiming for higher than that, but it's starting to go sideways.

 

[MTS]

I mean what's funny is that the outright tank teams like Philly are labeled a failure for becoming a competitive playoff team.

Philly was one of the most successful examples of a team that did an all-out tank.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Jazz probably are a playoff team if they signed Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks over the last two summers (simply because their guard play is so catastrophic).

The Jazz were obviously aiming for higher than that, but it's starting to go sideways.

Play in team maybe. Playoffs... not likely. So if we want to trade "Dark Days" for "slightly less Dark Days but still kinda frustrating" then fine. But we can't act like we would have been a 3-6 seed forever without extreme luck... luck we were still eligible for by trading for additional picks... and opportunities that would have been lost by conveying a pick to OKC. The last part not directed at you per se. We can still do that (just like the Rockets did) and declare the rebuild a success I suppose.

I can tolerate dark days if the light at the end of the tunnel is a little brighter (this doesn't mean title or bust either... landing a star in the draft is the biggest factor in long term playoff contention type success too).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Philly was one of the most successful examples of a team that did an all-out tank.

SAx2/OKCx2/Orlando are additional successful teams. Many teams that others point at to show that tanking doesn't work were actually just teams being bad while trying to not be bad. There are failures of course.

No strategy is foolproof but I don't get folks that scoff at tanking when its maybe the most successful team building route for long term success. I mean Brooklyn had one of the most successful trade/FA rebuilds and said... eff that we are going to do it the other way.

 

[MTS]

SAx2/OKCx2/Orlando are additional successful teams. Many teams that others point at to show that tanking doesn't work were actually just teams being bad while trying to not be bad. There are failures of course.

No strategy is foolproof but I don't get folks that scoff at tanking when its maybe the most successful team building route for long term success. I mean Brooklyn had one of the most successful trade/FA rebuilds and said... eff that we are going to do it the other way.

This is unbelievably false.

To an insane level, you are tunneling on the <5% of instances that were successes and ignoring all of the failures. The fact that you're so starving for successful examples that you have to cite Orlando is telling. Orlando was terrible for 15 straight years, despite during that time having a 6-year stretch with picks 2/4/5/11/6/6. And that was before the NBA flattened the lottery odds.

 

[AlaskanAssassin]

Between how horrible this team is, and how horrible the modern "let's chuck 40 3s a game" NBA style is, it's really come close to killing my interest in the Jazz and the NBA in general.

I'll probably never stop following them. I've been watching them for 30+ years and all, but I can't make it through any games this year. It's just not a good use of time.

My feelings exactly. I definitely can't watch NBA basketball if it's not the Jazz. They style today just isn't appealing to me.

I remember watching basketball as a teenager in the late 90s and getting excited when someone hit a 3-pointer. Now when Keyonte hits one I'm left wondering if he can hit 33% of them for the game.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is unbelievably false.

To an insane level, you are tunneling on the <5% of instances that were successes and ignoring all of the failures. The fact that you're so starving for successful examples that you have to cite Orlando is telling. Orlando was terrible for 15 straight years, despite during that time having a 6-year stretch with picks 2/4/5/11/6/6. And that was before the NBA flattened the lottery odds.

Its not... and I very clearly stated "there are failures of course". I'm not ignoring failures. "insane" and "unbelievably false" GTFOH. I was simply stating a few of the other big (bigger?) successes than Philly. I'm not starving for successes... there are many other items you can point to without having to reach too far, but anything outside of the Philly method is considered "not tanking" by anti-tankers and when teams like Orlando struggle for 15 years anti-tankers point to them as tankers when they weren't.

Just take Orlando. When did they start to tank (trade off their stars) and when did they just suck? From 2014-2015 season to about the 2019-2020 season they weren't tanking. They were trying a middle build strategy and made the playoffs a handful of times but also just weren't very good. Say what you want but tanking wasn't their strategy. They didn't get lotto luck, they missed on some mid round picks and top 10 picks. Prior to that they tanked a couple years and end up with Gordon/Oladipo/Isaac. Just didn't hit BIG. They also move Oladipo and Sabonis (that 11th pick you mentioned) to get Serg Ibaka, not a tanking move btw, so while Orlando ended up being really mid/sucking it wasn't even because of their bad luck. It was because they tried to hit the accelerator and make a trade. They moved TWO all stars for Serge Ibaka. Tanking does not overcome incompetence... it is not a magic elixir. But lets just call that a tanking failure anyway and ignore the autopsy. They go through a period of mid before moving Fournier and Vuc in a clear rebuild and tank move. They get picks (one becomes Franz) and Wendell Carter. The poor record yields Suggs. The following year they strike gold and get Paolo.

So two tank attempts in that time... one failure (kind of) and one success. No strategy is perfect or foolproof.

You still have not answered the very basic question... given our situation... what is your super amazing alternative?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

As I've said before, many armchair GM types love and advocate full-on, scorched-earth tanking because it makes them feel superior, like they're playing emotionless 4D chess – they've evolved away from fandom into expertise.

They look down on the hordes of simple-minded basic fans who just want to see good basketball and cheer for as many wins as possible. "They don't see the big picture!!"

 

[kcgar]

Did you not watch the 1988 playoffs, when we took the eventual champs, the Lakers, to 7 games in the playoffs? No I did not go back and check their offensive efficiency numbers, but if memory serves, they performed well.

That's funny because I went, as a 4 yr old to the Jazz v Lakers 1988 Christmas game

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As I've said before, many armchair GM types love and advocate full-on, scorched-earth tanking because it makes them feel superior, like they're playing emotionless 4D chess – they've evolved away from fandom into expertise.

They look down on the hordes of simple-minded basic fans who just want to see good basketball and cheer for as many wins as possible. "They don't see the big picture!!"

And those that fight against it being a valid method ignore that even if you try to be good sometimes you have to go through a period of being the 6th-10th worst team in the league and need an extremely lucky break to move ahead of that. The fact of the matter is we and others have much less control than we think and you have to play the best odds to get lucky.