How long does a SUCCESSFUL tank need to be?

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Our two best players in the history of the Utah Jazz were drafted 13th and 16th

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were drafted 27th and 13th in their drafts. Carlos boozer Millsap. We’re both second round picks. Al Jefferson was drafted in the middle of the first round. AK47 was a late first round pick most of our best players were drafted outside the top 10

Just imagine who the Jazz could have drafted if they had more top-3 picks.

 

[jazznik]

There's a difference between drafting a prospect with franchise-player potential and then seeing that player develop and come to fruition. Sure, there are a few prospects who really blossom and become franchise-level prospects when they weren't expected to--e.g., Jokic, Kawhi, James Harden, etc. But you're asking yourself, "If this guy hits and fulfills his potential, does he have the potential to be a top-10 player in the league?" For the guys I mentioned, the answer is, yes.

A few prospects?! Literally ALL MVPs in the last 10 years came outside of top-10 in the draft. And here is the number one picks in 2011-2020 (those that are still in the league and had enough time to pan out): Irving, AD, Bennett, Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Edwards. Do you see many successful franchise players here? During the same period the following players were drafted outside of top-5: Kawhi, Lillard, Butler, Giannis, Jokic, Booker, Sabonis, Siakam, Mitcell, SGA...

Take the 2012 draft, for example: the GMs in their eternal wisdom identified prospects with the most franchise-player potential in Anthony Bennett (1), Victor Oladipo (2), Otto Porter Junior (3), Cody Zeller (4), and Alex Len (5), while deeming Giannis (15) and Gobert (27) as clearly lacking that coveted potential despite both of them clearly being incredibly tall and athletic players.

The GMs and fans are incredibly bad at identifying players with the franchise-player potential unless they are dealing with tall athletic freaks like Shaq, LeBron or Wemby.

 

[idiot]

kudos @idiot, I'd be interesting to see a histogram or anything else that would indicate how often you get a 20, 30, 50, 80, 95 etc.

A brief summary of how I valued players:

• 7 were over 50, so about once every 2nd year: Wemby 100, Doncic 95, ANT 65, Embiid 65, AD 60, Tatum 60, Trae Young 55 (I'm having second thoughts on this one)
• 5 at 50 (once every 3 years)
• 14 over 30 and less than 50 (once nearly every year)
• 14 at 30 (I tried to do nice round numbers when I thought it possible)
• 15 at 20-29
• 12 under 20 but more than 0
• 28 at 0

As I mentioned initially, I graded probably too generously, meaning that the average time I calculated initially could be a little shorter than reality. I tried to give the benefit of the doubt (within reason) to young players whose careers haven't played out yet, and I usually gave more weight to potential than too injuries when a career has been wildly up and down because of both.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

A few prospects?! Literally ALL MVPs in the last 10 years came outside of top-10 in the draft. And here is the number one picks in 2011-2020 (those that are still in the league and had enough time to pan out): Irving, AD, Bennett, Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Edwards. Do you see many successful franchise players here? During the same period the following players were drafted outside of top-5: Kawhi, Lillard, Butler, Giannis, Jokic, Booker, Sabonis, Siakam, Mitcell, SGA...

Take the 2012 draft, for example: the GMs in their eternal wisdom identified prospects with the most franchise-player potential in Anthony Bennett (1), Victor Oladipo (2), Otto Porter Junior (3), Cody Zeller (4), and Alex Len (5), while deeming Giannis (15) and Gobert (27) as clearly lacking that coveted potential despite both of them clearly being incredibly tall and athletic players.

The GMs and fans are incredibly bad at identifying players with the franchise-player potential unless they are dealing with tall athletic freaks like Shaq, LeBron or Wemby.

As it relates to the current discussion there are two thoughts:

- A team that is good at drafting, could have picked any of the current MVPs with the number one pick.
- Player development is almost impossible to predict and so the draft is almost completely random. You just have to luck in to the guy draft wherever developing in to an MVP.

The truth is in the middle. It's difficult to talk about probabilities because of this.

 

[gomretat]

Th

The current top-3 players in the NBA are Jokic (drafted 41st), Giannis (15th), and SGA (11th). That is all you need to know about the reliability of conventional wisdom on draft prospects.

Out of 10 last MVP winners there was not a single player drafted first or second: two winners were drafted 3rd, the rest of them - below.

Our two best players in the history of the Utah Jazz were drafted 13th and 16th

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were drafted 27th and 13th in their drafts. Carlos boozer Millsap. We’re both second round picks. Al Jefferson was drafted in the middle of the first round. AK47 was a late first round pick most of our best players were drafted outside the top 10

This is why trading 3 first round picks for one that has a totally unknown value is a head scratcher. It is also why trading for young talent is better than trading for draft picks.

 

[gomretat]

Love this thread. I would personally re-frame this question - "How long does it take to build a playoff or championship caliber nucleus?"

The answer boils down to 1) draft lottery luck and 2) ownership and front office personnel. How good are they at their jobs?

High-quality franchises (Thunder, Spurs - lucky bastards, Celtics) have historically rebuilt very quickly. Others (Kings, Wizards, Pelicans, the Knicks prior to recent history) have generally sucked forever. Market size and revenue considerations are a significant part of the equation, but still only part of the equation.

Honestly, this question makes me miss the previous ownership regime. We were playoff competitive (or better) for 30+ seasons and were only in the cellar once that I can remember (04-05).

We have the draft assets to get much better, and very quickly. DA clearly has the track record of rebuilding rosters but let's see what he can get done here.

IMO, if we really wanted to think big - go get Sam Presti and pay him whatever (and I mean - WHATEVER) it takes to get him to Salt Lake City.

I like your question better but I think they are very different questions. I would say you tank for one or two years (and we are on year 3) but it takes 5ish years to try and build a contender. If your time frames get beyond that, player movement means you are likely to be starting over.

 

[idiot]

I would say you tank for one or two years (and we are on year 3) but it takes 5ish years to try and build a contender. If your time frames get beyond that, player movement means you are likely to be starting over.

Yeah, this is an important consideration.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

This is why trading 3 first round picks for one that has a totally unknown value is a head scratcher. It is also why trading for young talent is better than trading for draft picks.

Last time we did this we got Hayward from a Knicks pick. I think we waited 7 years to get it. The point is those picks are most likely in the upper 20’s. We may very well be a good, not great team. Suns have zero assets. At some point they may need to trade Booker once Durant age catches up, with or without Booker they will be in rebuild and is Booker going to want to be around for that. That pick could very well end up a top 3 pick and give us the serious boost we need.

 

[underdog]

A few prospects?! Literally ALL MVPs in the last 10 years came outside of top-10 in the draft. And here is the number one picks in 2011-2020 (those that are still in the league and had enough time to pan out): Irving, AD, Bennett, Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Edwards. Do you see many successful franchise players here? During the same period the following players were drafted outside of top-5: Kawhi, Lillard, Butler, Giannis, Jokic, Booker, Sabonis, Siakam, Mitcell, SGA...

Take the 2012 draft, for example: the GMs in their eternal wisdom identified prospects with the most franchise-player potential in Anthony Bennett (1), Victor Oladipo (2), Otto Porter Junior (3), Cody Zeller (4), and Alex Len (5), while deeming Giannis (15) and Gobert (27) as clearly lacking that coveted potential despite both of them clearly being incredibly tall and athletic players.

The GMs and fans are incredibly bad at identifying players with the franchise-player potential unless they are dealing with tall athletic freaks like Shaq, LeBron or Wemby.

Your logic is puzzling here. You compare the number one picks against all the picks outside the top 5 picks over 10 years. If we don’t look beyond the 1st round, that means 10 first-round picks (#1) compared to 250 first-round picks (#6-30). That is a huge difference and should be no surprise those couple of MVPs in your list are found among the 250 picks.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Don’t know how many times I have to say it but this **** is predicated on luck. The draft has almost nothing to do with skill, and mostly making a lucky or unlucky pick. For example the Jazz drafted Stockton because they needed a good backup for Ricky Green. No one knew how good he’d be. Look at the blazers, they drafted two bigs that had all the potential in the world but were derailed by horrific injuries and both times passed on generational talents. So it’s all about that and getting lucky with those ping pong balls. Cavs with LBJ the spurs twice with Duncan and Wemby. If I recall, I don’t think they were supposed to even get close to the first pic in both situations. Tell me if I’m wrong though. We need to 1. Get lucky with the ping pong balls or get lucky and pick the right guy. I do believe we are lucky to be bad in a draft year as good as this. Even outside the top 3 or 4 I think there are 2-3 all stars to be had.

My point is there is no right or wrong time frame for a rebuild other than being patient. In doing so you ensure building a complete team. Just don’t cut corners weather that takes 5 years or 10.

for an idiot you can sometimes be quite bright

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Until you draft the guy who is obviously the guy and that guy becomes too good to tank with.

 

[jazznik]

Your logic is puzzling here. You compare the number one picks against all the picks outside the top 5 picks over 10 years. If we don’t look beyond the 1st round, that means 10 first-round picks (#1) compared to 250 first-round picks (#6-30). That is a huge difference and should be no surprise those couple of MVPs in your list are found among the 250 picks.

The logic is simple: many people here talk about specific players (Harper, Boozer etc.) as though if the Jazz got them with a high pick then the team would get a franchise player. But in reality, the rate of busts/disappointments is very high in the NBA drafting. Even teams with the 1st picks have been typically really disappointed with the players they had drafted.

And, more specifically, the exercise that started this topic somehow assumes that the only way to get a franchise cornerstone is via the top pick. And, historically, in the last 15 years it was quite the opposite: players like SGA, Jokic, Giannis and Mitchell were obtained with unsexy low picks. There has been lately too much emphasis on the successful tank vs. the successful rebuild. Guess what, the Jazz somehow successfully rebuilt their team multiple times without the multi-year "successful tanking".