Game Thread Mar 31, 2025 05:00PM MT: Utah Jazz @ Charlotte Hornets

[NUMBERICA]

Is there anybody on that doesn't want the Jazz to finish with the worst record?

I think it would be understandable if someone didn't want to be that embarrassing.

I don’t want the worst record. I want exactly the 2nd worst record.

This is the last game of the year I would do shameful tanking (if they succeed).

 

[fishonjazz]

I want the worst record

 

[Coach Ellis]

I want the worst record

This. Jazz need talent. Even though there’s a pretty big gap between Flagg and Johnson, there’s an even bigger drop off after that. Jazz need to lock in a top 5 pick and add some more talent to this team.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

I don’t want the worst record. I want exactly the 2nd worst record.

This is the last game of the year I would do shameful tanking (if they succeed).

I’m confused. The first and second pick have the same odds for Cooper Flagg, but having the number two odds also means you can get the sixth pic instead of just the fifth pick we need at least the fifth pick I’m not risking going down even further.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I’m confused. The first and second pick have the same odds for Cooper Flagg, but having the number two odds also means you can get the sixth pic instead of just the fifth pick we need at least the fifth pick I’m not risking going down even further.

Numb is superstitious.

 

[underdog]

I’m confused. The first and second pick have the same odds for Cooper Flagg, but having the number two odds also means you can get the sixth pic instead of just the fifth pick we need at least the fifth pick I’m not risking going down even further.

That’s right, for the remaining games, the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets are all tanking hard to avoid the possibility of ending up with the 6th or 7th pick.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Numb is superstitious.

Basically. That, and there is a fair argument that you are harming development of prospects or culture at a certain point of tanking egregiousness. Is the marginal chance of picking one pick later in a worst-case-scenario worse than what you lose in intangible development value? I think it’s a valid question. We have already succeeded in the first goal which is to be bottom-3, and I fully endorse getting grimy to that point, but beyond that point? I don’t know. Feels like that’s where the marginal value of tanking might plateau and the marginal value of playing basketball in earnest starts to match or eclipse.

I also still believe Kas is a top-6 prospect and that’s where the first major cliff in talent falls off for me. Queen is contextually in that conversation, but I’m out since I’m kinda just out on players in his mold (non-rim protecting dinosaur bigs) and we have Walker to boot.

And yeah, IF the NBA puts their thumb on the scale of the lottery, it paints a very different picture regarding the worst record never getting the top pick in this era. The “basketball gods” argument is fine and fun, but if the NBA is shadow-punishing the worst tankers then I don’t want the mark. The marginal value of pick floor is not there for me.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Basically. That, and there is a fair argument that you are harming development of prospects or culture at a certain point of tanking egregiousness. Is the marginal chance of picking one pick later in a worst-case-scenario worse than what you lose in intangible development value? I think it’s a valid question. We have already succeeded in the first goal which is to be bottom-3, and I fully endorse getting grimy to that point, but beyond that point? I don’t know. Feels like that’s where the marginal value of tanking might meet its apex and the marginal value of playing basketball in earnest starts to match or eclipse.

I also still believe Kas is a top-6 prospect and that’s where the first major cliff in talent falls off for me. Queen is contextually in that conversation, but I’m out since I’m kinda just out on players in his mold (non-rim protecting dinosaur bigs) and we have Walker to boot.

And yeah, IF the NBA puts their thumb on the scale of the lottery, it paints a very different picture regarding the worst record never getting the top pick in this era. The “basketball gods” argument is fine and fun, but if the NBA is shadow-punishing the worst tankers then I don’t want the mark. The marginal value of pick floor is not there for me.

I also have to admit that at this point, it’s Flagg or bust. I just don’t like Dylan Harper very much (amazing for a team with two top-4 talents that they were *** and that might say something about them, especially since their BPM is shockingly weak), I see real warts in everyone there and down the list. So the question of pick floor just really doesn’t matter to me at this point (at least regarding whether we get 5th or 6th, I really don’t care.).

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I also still believe Kas is a top-6 prospect and that’s where the first major cliff in talent falls off for me. Queen is contextually in that conversation, but I’m out since I’m kinda just out on players in his mold (non-rim protecting dinosaur bigs) and we have Walker to boot.

Where I'm at with Kas is that I can see where he isn't maybe a top 6 prospect, but I would still prefer him on the Jazz over almost everyone outside of Flagg and Harper. Kon is also growing on me and I might prefer him to some of the consensus top 6 guys as well. In other words, I think there will be good players at 6 and maybe even 7 available.

 

[idiot]

This. Jazz need talent. Even though there’s a pretty big gap between Flagg and Johnson, there’s an even bigger drop off after that. Jazz need to lock in a top 5 pick and add some more talent to this team.

This could be true. If so, it would be an anomaly of a sort, however. The relative difference in value between picks (on average) generally declines with each pick. Difference in value between 1 & 2 is typically much larger than difference in value between 5 & 6. (Remember a couple weeks ago, Andy Larsen a couple weeks ago calculated the value difference between finishing with the worst record and the 2nd worst record as about 20% of the value of a late 2nd-round pick.)

That's why I've been pressing a bit to have people tell me who they have in mind at 5 that is so much better than at 6.

 

[underdog]

Basically. That, and there is a fair argument that you are harming development of prospects or culture at a certain point of tanking egregiousness. Is the marginal chance of picking one pick later in a worst-case-scenario worse than what you lose in intangible development value? I think it’s a valid question. We have already succeeded in the first goal which is to be bottom-3, and I fully endorse getting grimy to that point, but beyond that point? I don’t know. Feels like that’s where the marginal value of tanking might meet its apex and the marginal value of playing basketball in earnest starts to match or eclipse.

I also still believe Kas is a top-6 prospect and that’s where the first major cliff in talent falls off for me. Queen is contextually in that conversation, but I’m out since I’m kinda just out on players in his mold (non-rim protecting dinosaur bigs) and we have Walker to boot.

And yeah, IF the NBA puts their thumb on the scale of the lottery, it paints a very different picture regarding the worst record never getting the top pick in this era. The “basketball gods” argument is fine and fun, but if the NBA is shadow-punishing the worst tankers then I don’t want the mark. The marginal value of pick floor is not there for me.

Yeah, I’m okay with a bottom-3 record too. But I’m thinking, while we’re at it, might as well aim for the worst record to secure no worse than a top 5 pick. And I don't believe that the NBA lottery is rigged.

 

[fishonjazz]

This could be true. If so, it would be an anomaly of a sort, however. The relative difference in value between picks (on average) generally declines with each pick. Difference in value between 1 & 2 is typically much larger than difference in value between 5 & 6. (Remember a couple weeks ago, Andy Larsen a couple weeks ago calculate the value difference between finishing with the worst record and the 2nd worst record as about 20% of the value of a late 2nd-round pick.)

That's why I've been pressing a bit to have people tell me who they have in mind at 5 that is so much better than at 6.

Honestly doesn't really matter who jazz fans have in mind at 5 that is so much matter than at 6. Jazz fans don't draft for the jazz.
I want Ainge to have the best pick possible so he has the most options of players he has worked out and studied etc to pick from.
Maybe Ainge loves a dude at 5 and we pick 6 and he doesn't get to pick the dude he wants.