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If the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged, where will we land?

While I think conspiracy theories about the draft are silly (the Ewing draft maybe being the only one I'd consider might have been rigged), I will admit sometimes its kind of fun to indulge in what if speculation, same as its fun to engage in superstitions, as long as you don't buy into it super hard. Like, the Jazz always blow leads once my Mom starts watching games. Do I know that one person watching a game (usually pre-recorded and over already at this point) can't actually affect the outcome? Sure. Is it still fun to give her a hard time about it? Yup.

So yeah, looking at the teams present, I think the league would best benefit from Brooklyn or Philly. They got a 37 win team in the playoffs from the east. If they're shadow running things they'd want a bettern narrative for an Eastern Conference team.
 
jom2003 said:
And someone explain to me why small market teams like Charlotte and Sacramento never won the lottery even once despite having the worst records in the league for the last 15+ years.
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For Charlotte.....

Made the playoffs twice in that 15 year period. Draft odds were .17% 25% 19.9% .17% .8% .8% 1% 6% 1.8% 1% 12.5% 13.3% 14% in that period

That factors out to be.. about a 35% chance they didn't win in that time period. Certainly not lucky but not horrible odds it happened. That includes having the #1 and #2 worst records back when the odds were weighted a lot more favorably.

If you just include the years from the time the draft odds changed in 2019, its abou a 60% chance they didn't win in that time period.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I'm not sure what you are getting at? Why would the league want Dallas to get Cooper Flagg?

Also, are you saying that the league will make more money if they create a super team in San Antonio? Why do you think that?
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Repayment for giving Luka to LA. Or maybe granting them the move to Vegas will be enough.
 
infection said:
Let me give different scenarios, all hypothetical and don’t pertain to this moment but a vague generalization of the past 30 years:

1. The league throwing the Lakers a bone when they need to be on the upswing and land a big talent in the lottery.

2. The league throwing the Knicks a bone because “they’re a big market”.

3. The league trying to drum up more NBA interest in a huge NCAA state in NC.

4. The league doing a franchise like SAS a solid and giving a handout that leads to a couple decades of self-sufficiency and raising the overall competitiveness of the league.

These four scenarios show how the idea of “big market = money = favor them” isn’t the best way to view things, even if you’re conspiratorial. NYC is the largest sports market in the world. Despite that, the league pushing that ****** franchise would be dumping money down the drain. The Lakers on the other hand, despite periodic mismanagement, has a proven track record to stay relevant and give you good return. San Antonio, as well, despite being a small market, does a lot for maintaining competitive balance in the league. The league benefits from a late-90s Jazz. It’s like the employee who you pay decent, not great, but good value, they show up early, stay late, don’t complain, aren’t a squeaky wheel, and put their head down and go to work. That does have real value. The fact that you can get by without giving them a raise for multiple years is also appreciated, and exploited, but brings real value.

Tl;dr there’s nobody right now that doing a favor for them will have any kind of predictable guarantee of benefiting the league generally. If Silver was asked, I’d imagine he’d be less thrilled about the #1 going somewhere like Charlotte. I don’t think you’d get added value in Brooklyn. He probably wouldn’t even be there that long. There’s an argument that you could put someone like Flagg in Utah and it being similar to Wemby in SA.

Small market teams pulling their weight is actually important for the league and they obviously see that. It’s more when you’re head-to-head on certain things the golden children will always be the golden children (Lakers).
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If certain picks in the NBA draft are rigged, here's what I think the criteria and rationale for rigging are:
1) Did the local fanbase just experience a huge loss, whereby they are up in arms and in need something to be hopeful about (e.g., losing Lebron in free agency, losing Anthony Davis in a trade demand and standoff, losing James Harden in a meltdown)?
2) Is the franchise in question going on the market and need to protect its current valuation or give out a lottery pick as a thank-you gift to the new ownership (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets, New Orleans Pelicans)?
3) Is the player in question a superstar who will drive NBA ratings by attracting the casual viewer if the league sends him to a major tv market?
4) Are the franchise and the player a good match for one another?
5) Can the league help the Lakers?

The rationale against sending the Jazz a #1 pick would be that the Jazz have rabid fans who support the team and sell out the arena no matter what the team looks like. Hence, there isn't really a benefit for doing so aside from maybe a feel-good story.
 
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