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If the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged, where will we land?

NUMBERICA said:
How did they send him to LA? What?
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Giving NOLA the #1 pick (Zion) and LA the #4 pick (Deandre Hunter) facilitated New Orleans trading Anthony Davis to the Lakers right before the draft. NOLA received Ingram, Ball, Hart and the #4 pick (which they traded to ATL) for Davis. The league rewarded NOLA with Zion to rebuild with. Note that at the time, none of Ingram, Ball or Hart had shown much potential to be All Stars or franchise-type players. Ingram was the best player coming back in the trade, a 3rd-year player who had put up 18 ppg that season. Anthony Davis was a 6x All Star in his prime and a perennial DPOY and MVP candidate. Hence, the Pels needed a guy like Zion to keep the trade from being a disaster. The league obliged. That's the conspiracy theory anyway. The mathematical probability of this happening on its own was miniscule.


View: https://x.com/wojespn/status/1140023139142971392
 
It's high time the worst team gets the #1:

2024: 10th best odds wins, #1 odds drops to 5

2023: 3rd best odds wins, #1 odds drops to 5

2022: 2nd best odds wins, #1 odds drops to 3

2021: 2nd best odds wins, #1 odds drops to 2

2020: 3rd best odds wins, #1 odds drops to 2

2019: 7th best odds wins, #1 odds drops to 3

I can live with 1 or 2.
 
The NBA has been rigged for 30+ years.
Do they rig every game? No. They don't need to.
Do they rig the lottery? Yes. However they don't always need to.
Will they need to rig this year? I don't really think so. Flagg is special, he's also a kinda normal white dude. Kinda sounds like the right fit in Utah.
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
I'm starting to wonder if there's any other scenario where conspiratorial thinking is more mainstream than when talking about the NBA draft. It's ****ing everywhere. Obnoxious.
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NBA is unique compared to other sports in terms of the significance of the top pick (and on some years that extends to top 2 or even deeper). The impact of a single player (like Jokic, SGA etc) to team success is so great, that getting top talent is just essential. The importance of "that guy" causes people to get paranoid about the process.

In NFL the QB is the only position where a single player can have a similar impact to team success, but projecting quarterbacks success has historically been very hard. There are few instances that come to mind where a quarterback was so good that it actually instigated tanking.. Andrew Luck being the most obvious one. If they had lottery though, I'm sure the paranoid levels would be pretty high on years where there is a guy like Luck available.
 
Do I think the NBA lottery is rigged? No.

Do I think that the league sometimes steps in to aid distressed franchises that lost lots of fans or to get a storyline like hometown hero? Do I suspect the #1 pick overall going to specific franchises at specific times is suspect? Mos Def.

Years ago I put together some of the most suspect moments in nba draft history. It was pretty similar to this video that was the first video I have ever looked up on NBA lottery conspiracy.


View: https://youtu.be/EtKDIR8ZtNE?feature=shared


I didnt buy the Mutombo crap. But it is clear that some of the story lines are suspect especially regarding the #1 overall pick.

Most suspect moments for me:

Knicks / Ewing
Cleveland - all things Lebron
New Orleans - post Katrina events
Many top Lakers picks
Hometown heroes Lebron to Cleveland and Rose to Chicago
 
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Lebron leaves Cleveland and the cavs get the #1 has always bothered me. New Orleans loses AD to the Lakers and gets #1 has also always bothered me.

Since history repeats itself, Luka is out in Dallas... fans watch a finals team in 2024 fail to make the playoffs in 2025... fans are pissed and up in arms. This was a nuclear fallout in the league.

Dallas getting the #1 would be very suspect. Virtually a repeat of the same story line with a disillusioned fan base that would come back quickly with a Cooper Flagg at the helm.
 
Also, the Thunder look fantastic by drafting better than others and smart decisions, not because of lottery positioning in the draft. Can we do the same should be our challenge...

But a top 2 pick would sure be nice ONCE in our franchise's history. I mean... guys we have never had a top pick and we lose virtually every coin toss.
 
Flc said:
I've always been incredibly skeptical of conspiracy theories, but I still don't find any rational explanation for the Luka trade. The only thing that makes sense to me is the league initiating and mandating the discussions, in the face of declining ratings and revenue.

Then, you have LeBron coming out a month ago insinuating his draft - and other drafts - were rigged.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=221TahD8lKM


Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Let's assume that it is, hypothetically, for our own entertainment. Where does that leave the Jazz? Would the league want to route Cooper here, given organizational strength and the prospect of being a playoff team in Flagg's rookie year? Do they want him in Brooklyn? Would the league have the balls to give the Mavs the first pick?
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FIFA has been fixing the draws for World Cups for years. Nothing new here
 
Sardines said:
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Step off ************, leave that little platypus alone.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If certain picks in the NBA draft are rigged, here's what I think the criteria and rationale for rigging are:
1) Did the local fanbase just experience a huge loss, whereby they are up in arms and in need something to be hopeful about (e.g., losing Lebron in free agency, losing Anthony Davis in a trade demand and standoff, losing James Harden in a meltdown)?
2) Is the franchise in question going on the market and need to protect its current valuation or give out a lottery pick as a thank-you gift to the new ownership (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets, New Orleans Pelicans)?
3) Is the player in question a superstar who will drive NBA ratings by attracting the casual viewer if the league sends him to a major tv market?
4) Are the franchise and the player a good match for one another?
5) Can the league help the Lakers?

The rationale against sending the Jazz a #1 pick would be that the Jazz have rabid fans who support the team and sell out the arena no matter what the team looks like. Hence, there isn't really a benefit for doing so aside from maybe a feel-good story.
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What about the unseen hand? The networks, the sponsors, the agents, all of these interests also pull toward the leagues favoured commercial narrative.
 
Rubashov said:
What about the unseen hand? The networks, the sponsors, the agents, all of these interests also pull toward the leagues favoured commercial narrative.
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As for agents trying to steer players to certain teams, I don't think that's the same as the league putting their thumb on the scale. I think the league would only involve itself with a few big-time prospects who can re-shape a franchise. For example, Andrew Wiggins goes to Cleveland, so Cleveland can trade for Kevin Love, so Lebron agrees to return to Cleveland to play with Kyrie and Love in a feel-good story. Lebron then goes to the Finals for the next four years.

I'm sure New Balance has a preference as to where Cooper Flagg ends up, but I don't think the league would care that much about what New Balance wants. They'll care about their multi-billion-dollar media contracts, since the league itself is now really a media product. Teams would generally go along with this because a rising tide raises all the boats.
 
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If the NBA rigs the lottery by sending the top prospects to the most marketable teams than they are doing an astonishingly poor job. In the last 30+ years the teams receiving multiple highly touted players via first picks were San Antonio (Duncan, Wemby), Cleveland (LeBron, Wiggins, Kyrie), Orlando (Shaq, Howard, Banchero) and New Orleans (Davis, Zion). All the storied/big market teams - the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks - got absolutely nothing. The hapless Clippers did get 2 first picks in so-so drafts but that is hardly surprising because they were the worst team in the NBA for, like, 20 years in a row.

Of course, another theory is that small market teams get compensated for losing their star players to LA/Boston/NY/Miami so that the NBA keeps the farm teams rewarded but the biggest gets (Shaq, Duncan, LeBron) went to the teams that did not ship anyone anywhere. And, in any case, if that is the actual goal of rigging then no rigging is necessary: the lottery will reliably help bad small markets teams without any meddling.
 
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