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If the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged, where will we land?

Also, the Thunder look fantastic by drafting better than others and smart decisions, not because of lottery positioning in the draft. Can we do the same should be our challenge...

But a top 2 pick would sure be nice ONCE in our franchise's history. I mean... guys we have never had a top pick and we lose virtually every coin toss.
 
I've always been incredibly skeptical of conspiracy theories, but I still don't find any rational explanation for the Luka trade. The only thing that makes sense to me is the league initiating and mandating the discussions, in the face of declining ratings and revenue.

Then, you have LeBron coming out a month ago insinuating his draft - and other drafts - were rigged.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=221TahD8lKM


Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Let's assume that it is, hypothetically, for our own entertainment. Where does that leave the Jazz? Would the league want to route Cooper here, given organizational strength and the prospect of being a playoff team in Flagg's rookie year? Do they want him in Brooklyn? Would the league have the balls to give the Mavs the first pick?



FIFA has been fixing the draws for World Cups for years. Nothing new here
 
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Step off ************, leave that little platypus alone.
 
If certain picks in the NBA draft are rigged, here's what I think the criteria and rationale for rigging are:
1) Did the local fanbase just experience a huge loss, whereby they are up in arms and in need something to be hopeful about (e.g., losing Lebron in free agency, losing Anthony Davis in a trade demand and standoff, losing James Harden in a meltdown)?
2) Is the franchise in question going on the market and need to protect its current valuation or give out a lottery pick as a thank-you gift to the new ownership (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets, New Orleans Pelicans)?
3) Is the player in question a superstar who will drive NBA ratings by attracting the casual viewer if the league sends him to a major tv market?
4) Are the franchise and the player a good match for one another?
5) Can the league help the Lakers?

The rationale against sending the Jazz a #1 pick would be that the Jazz have rabid fans who support the team and sell out the arena no matter what the team looks like. Hence, there isn't really a benefit for doing so aside from maybe a feel-good story.

What about the unseen hand? The networks, the sponsors, the agents, all of these interests also pull toward the leagues favoured commercial narrative.
 
What about the unseen hand? The networks, the sponsors, the agents, all of these interests also pull toward the leagues favoured commercial narrative.

As for agents trying to steer players to certain teams, I don't think that's the same as the league putting their thumb on the scale. I think the league would only involve itself with a few big-time prospects who can re-shape a franchise. For example, Andrew Wiggins goes to Cleveland, so Cleveland can trade for Kevin Love, so Lebron agrees to return to Cleveland to play with Kyrie and Love in a feel-good story. Lebron then goes to the Finals for the next four years.

I'm sure New Balance has a preference as to where Cooper Flagg ends up, but I don't think the league would care that much about what New Balance wants. They'll care about their multi-billion-dollar media contracts, since the league itself is now really a media product. Teams would generally go along with this because a rising tide raises all the boats.
 
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If the NBA rigs the lottery by sending the top prospects to the most marketable teams than they are doing an astonishingly poor job. In the last 30+ years the teams receiving multiple highly touted players via first picks were San Antonio (Duncan, Wemby), Cleveland (LeBron, Wiggins, Kyrie), Orlando (Shaq, Howard, Banchero) and New Orleans (Davis, Zion). All the storied/big market teams - the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks - got absolutely nothing. The hapless Clippers did get 2 first picks in so-so drafts but that is hardly surprising because they were the worst team in the NBA for, like, 20 years in a row.

Of course, another theory is that small market teams get compensated for losing their star players to LA/Boston/NY/Miami so that the NBA keeps the farm teams rewarded but the biggest gets (Shaq, Duncan, LeBron) went to the teams that did not ship anyone anywhere. And, in any case, if that is the actual goal of rigging then no rigging is necessary: the lottery will reliably help bad small markets teams without any meddling.
 
Lebron leaves Cleveland and the cavs get the #1 has always bothered me. New Orleans loses AD to the Lakers and gets #1 has also always bothered me.

Since history repeats itself, Luka is out in Dallas... fans watch a finals team in 2024 fail to make the playoffs in 2025... fans are pissed and up in arms. This was a nuclear fallout in the league.

Dallas getting the #1 would be very suspect. Virtually a repeat of the same story line with a disillusioned fan base that would come back quickly with a Cooper Flagg at the helm.
This was written April 24th. So, was this a shocker? Nah. Lick my taint Adam Silver.

The NBA = the WWE. It's a real bummer.
 
There is only one story that makes sense out of a bunch of things that didn't make sense before yesterday:

--In the two weeks after widespread reporting of the NBA's viewership crisis, Luka is traded without debate or auction to the most popular franchise for very little in return in what's widely considered to be one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history.
--No one is able to explain the Mavs' actions in a way that makes rationale sense to anyone from fans to other GMs.
--Mavs win the first pick with a 1.8% chance.

The official account: the GM of the Mavs is an idiot who really hated Luka, the Lakers had secret lunch meetings and finessed Niko, the Mavs got really lucky in the draft... that seems far less believable than even the most extreme conspiracy theories.

This has radicalized me. I'm a full conspiracy theorist now - I don't see any other plausible explanation that accounts for all of these facts under our current physical model of the universe.

And to that end: Call me crazy, but at least for now, I'm done with the NBA. It's not about the Jazz losing the first pick, it's about the Mavs winning it - this strikes me as mafia level RICO, and I don't buy Andy, McMahon and others making arguments like: "He's REALLY magic, I SAW him pull the rabbit out of the hat!"

Peace friends. I'll be back here and there to say hi and make sure Tremendous Upside knows his place. And if you see me out there barbecuing polar bears with Q-Anon and Robert F. Kennedy, know that the descent all started with the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery.

And since I'm going out on a limb here, I'll add to it: LeBron knows. LeBron is pissed about the AD trade. LeBron is trying to call out the system in subtle (but not that subtle) ways, which he's modeled off Kendrick's approach to Drake. His tweets last night were the latest salvo.
 
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