Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think the narrative that the SEC was so hard this year was driven by the SEC and SEC media rights holders…..

Not at all. It was the best conference of all time.

 

[Bodhi]

Not at all. It was the best conference of all time.

Nah

 

[kcgar]

I don't have a problem with Locke having a different opinion on Johnson and I think there is some value to "missing the narratives" all year, but I wonder how he would reconcile his take that Tre has an elite first step but also cannot get to the rim. Defense, almost everyone agrees is bad though the extent can be debated. Passing, I'm in agreement that the "ballhog" narrative doesn't bother me and I think he's actually underrated here. But the ability to attack the rim is the biggest question mark. Players that cannot get to the rim or the FT line rarely do so in the NBA and that is a tough living in the NBA. Definitely guys who are able to do that, but unless they are the elite of the elite you might not love that player.

Locke has his core indicators that he believes strongly in, and I guess that's fine, but he has no open mindedness to other numbers or how those numbers may be misleading.

Granted, I haven’t watched actual games of Tre so I have seen very little of his weaknesses. However, there were multiple times in the highlight videos that I saw him go right past his man to the hoop. I saw it enough times that I thought it was weird that everyone was saying it was a glaring weakness. Does anybody have video showing more of his weaknesses so I can see?

Also, it comes off to me that the problem with him and Ace is that they are obsessed with taking tough 3s and long 2s (and they are very good at it) and so it looks like they don’t have the skill to drive past their guy. I could be way off but it just looks like they don’t even try to drive the vast majority of the time.

You were also comparing Fears to Tre with regard to spacing. I don’t know this answer, but did Fears have better teammates than Tre because that can shrink space down even more so if players are focused on the only player that can play?

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Honestly that's really good to hear. What game was it, and who was he specifically guarding in the game?

Of the 6 or 7 games I watched, he was pretty good defensively in one of them (hopefully not the same one you are referring to) and one of the worst college defender I've ever seen in the other games.

But, also, LOL at saying he is being scouted wrong based off of one game when the guys putting together the scouting reports watch every game, going back to high school.

NC State. He guarded a bunch of players don’t remember names.

 

[kcgar]

Nothing quite like tanking for the next iteration of Keyonte George.

I don’t think this is fair. Keyonte is a bad shooter and doesn’t know he is, so he is a chucker. I think that Tre is another level when it comes to shooting. Also, I think we need to trade Keyonte

I don’t love Tre, but would totally be fine drafting him. Who do you prefer and we can talk about their pros/cons? This draft is full of great flawed players

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don’t think this is fair. Keyonte is a bad shooter and doesn’t know he is, so he is a checker. I think that Tre is another level when it comes to shooting. Also, I think we need to trade Keyonte

I don’t love Tre, but would totally be fine drafting him. Who do you prefer and we can talk about their pros/cons? This draft is full of great flawed players

Key didn't make shots in college or the pros at an efficient level. I think Tre has some similarities but is just a flame thrower. Like if Key got hot 2 games out of 5 instead of 1. I think he is bigger and more athletic as well.

I like Tre but I think he may be the guy that goes 3... that pick is the most likely to move imo so the top 4 is really fluid atm.

 

[KqWIN]

Granted, I haven’t watched actual games of Tre so I have seen very little of his weaknesses. However, there were multiple times in the highlight videos that I saw him go right past his man to the hoop. I saw it enough times that I thought it was weird that everyone was saying it was a glaring weakness. Does anybody have video showing more of his weaknesses so I can see?

Also, it comes off to me that the problem with him and Ace is that they are obsessed with taking tough 3s and long 2s (and they are very good at it) and so it looks like they don’t have the skill to drive past their guy. I could be way off but it just looks like they don’t even try to drive the vast majority of the time.

You were also comparing Fears to Tre with regard to spacing. I don’t know this answer, but did Fears have better teammates than Tre because that can shrink space down even more so if players are focused on the only player that can play?

The first thing to point out is the numbers themselves. Tre has a very low rim rate and free throw rate. That is something a highlight video can't tell you and also can't dispute. But ironically, Tre's highlight videos do show a lot of instances where he doesn't get all the way to the rim. A big reason why he has so many highlight pull up jumpers is because he's unable to beat him off the dribble.

Your point about them being obsessed with pull up jumpers, that's absolutely part of the problem. Both of them have to answer the question of whether or how much their lack of rim pressure is because they can't get there or don't want to get. It's a combination of both, but you could debate how they fit onto that scale. If you think it's more of their mentality and not ability, you have to address the question of how much they are willing to change.

What we do know now is that their current shot distribution makes it hard for them to be efficient. The best NBA players usually efficient because they both make tough shots and also create easy shots for themselves. Historically, rim rate and free throw rate does not improve in the pros and you rarely ever see a player go from low to above average. This is my concern with these two. It's already low, and history shows that it almost always stays low and/or gets lower.

As far as the Fears comparison, I really don't want to get into the weeds about that for something this broad. I just brought up two SEC players because if you're going to use that excuse Tre, you need to be consistent about giving that grace to everyone. You can point out minute differences between SEC teams, but it doesn't change the larger point that rim pressure does not get easier in the NBA. The idea that rim pressure will get better because of the difficulty of a conference or poor quality of teammates just doesn't hold a lot of water.

 

[The Midnight]

The first thing to point out is the numbers themselves. Tre has a very low rim rate and free throw rate. That is something a highlight video can't tell you and also can't dispute. But ironically, Tre's highlight videos do show a lot of instances where he doesn't get all the way to the rim. A big reason why he has so many highlight pull up jumpers is because he's unable to beat him off the dribble.

Your point about them being obsessed with pull up jumpers, that's absolutely part of the problem. Both of them have to answer the question of whether or how much their lack of rim pressure is because they can't get there or don't want to get. It's a combination of both, but you could debate how they fit onto that scale. If you think it's more of their mentality and not ability, you have to address the question of how much they are willing to change.

What we do know now is that their current shot distribution makes it hard for them to be efficient. The best NBA players usually efficient because they both make tough shots and also create easy shots for themselves. Historically, rim rate and free throw rate does not improve in the pros and you rarely ever see a player go from low to above average. This is my concern with these two. It's already low, and history shows that it almost always stays low and/or gets lower.

As far as the Fears comparison, I really don't want to get into the weeds about that for something this broad. I just brought up two SEC players because if you're going to use that excuse Tre, you need to be consistent about giving that grace to everyone. You can point out minute differences between SEC teams, but it doesn't change the larger point that rim pressure does not get easier in the NBA. The idea that rim pressure will get better because of the difficulty of a conference or poor quality of teammates just doesn't hold a lot of water.

So who do you like at #5? Seems like you’re very critical of everyone.. lol

 

[KqWIN]

Key didn't make shots in college or the pros at an efficient level. I think Tre has some similarities but is just a flame thrower. Like if Key got hot 2 games out of 5 instead of 1. I think he is bigger and more athletic as well.

I like Tre but I think he may be the guy that goes 3... that pick is the most likely to move imo so the top 4 is really fluid atm.

Tre is so much better of a shooter, and that really is the main thing. He's a way better prospect for that reason. But having said that, I would really love it if Tre was the foul merchant Key is. I already think Tre is a great offensive prospect and one of the best shooting prospects we've had, but he needs that extra element of getting to the FT line or rim to make me convinced he's a truly elite offensive prospect. He's still the third best offensive prospect in this draft in my eyes.

FWIW, Tre did get better at drawing fouls over the course of the season so maybe he's heading the right direction.

And unfortunately, Key has a lot of issues outside of scoring that Tre also shares.

 

[KqWIN]

So who do you like at #5? Seems like you’re very critical of everyone.. lol

I like VJ the best out of he, Ace, and Tre. He's my type of prospect, and I love that archetype, but I still have some concerns there. The guy I'm probably higher on than most is Kasparas. You will see me talk about getting efficient shots all day everyday, Kas has the best shot distribution in the class. He's all rim, FT's, and 3's.

 

[Tom Pitt]

It’s looking more and more likely (at least to me) that Tre is moving up. I’m still a big fan of both Bailey and Edgecombe though. Glad the Jazz aren’t the Wizards right now.

I'll be honest... i don't see it with Edgecombe. He's gonna be a fringe starter or bench guy. I'm pretty confident about it. If we get Edgecombe at 5... we damn that really freakin sucks after how tough last season was

 

[Bodhi]

Granted, I haven’t watched actual games of Tre so I have seen very little of his weaknesses. However, there were multiple times in the highlight videos that I saw him go right past his man to the hoop. I saw it enough times that I thought it was weird that everyone was saying it was a glaring weakness. Does anybody have video showing more of his weaknesses so I can see?

Also, it comes off to me that the problem with him and Ace is that they are obsessed with taking tough 3s and long 2s (and they are very good at it) and so it looks like they don’t have the skill to drive past their guy. I could be way off but it just looks like they don’t even try to drive the vast majority of the time.

You were also comparing Fears to Tre with regard to spacing. I don’t know this answer, but did Fears have better teammates than Tre because that can shrink space down even more so if players are focused on the only player that can play?

I would always recommend Hoop Intellect for any of these shorter breakdowns if you don’t want to watch games. I think he’s the best doing it right now.

https://m.youtube.com/@HoopIntellect