OKC as a blueprint

[jazznik]

OKC just won a championship. They provided a very good realistic template for the Jazz on how to assemble a contender: OKC is a small-market team in a less-then-desirable city without a rich owner. They won by having an MVP-level player (SGA)+ 2 All-Stars (Williams, Holmgren)+ 3 above-average-starters (Hartenstein, Caruso, Dort) + quality bench (Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Wiggins, Joe). Of note, the Thunder has only two large 30+ million contracts in SGA and Hartenstein.

Now, lets look at what the Jazz have. We can argue that in the best case scenario Lauri would be equal to Jalen Williams and Kessler can become our Hartenstein. Being very optimistic again, we can argue that the group of Hendricks, Collier, Cody and Flip can produce 1 above-average starter and 2 quality bench players. Even if everything goes right the Jazz are still short of an MVP-level player (SGA), a second All-Star (Holmgren), 1 above-average starter and a couple of quality bench players.

What's more, keeping Lauri and Kessler means that the Jazz already have their two big contracts by paying them. That means that the only realistic scenario for the Jazz to become realistic contenders is for Ace +2026 pick to reach the level of SGA and Holmgren in 3-4 years, while still being on their rookie contracts. And that the Jazz will somehow successfully pick up or develop several key role players (Caruso, Wallace).

Now, how realistic is that? It looks like paying Lauri and Kessler big money really constricts realistic options for the Jazz to become real contenders with them on the roster. And trading one or both of them would not help much either: the Jazz will have to replace their production with someone else. It does not make me very optimistic about the Jazz becoming a real contender any time soon. Can anyone point out the holes in my reasoning and show that the Jazz do in fact have a realistic path to contending?

 

[jazznik]

I just looked up the Pacers as another blueprint. They also had only two large contracts (Haliburton and Siakim), Turner on a very friendly contract and a bunch of very good role players on rookie deals. It is a very similar situation to OKC.

 

[Strutter]

After trading for SGA, the Thunder had 3 losing seasons, and 2 of those were quite bad losing seasons. This was their 5th season after trading for their eventual star. 5 seasons is an eternity in the NBA: Lauri's contract would be up by then. Maybe if the Jazz seem like possible contenders, he'd be willing to sign a small contract to go for a title. If you're asking if the Jazz will be contending in 2 years, then the answer is no. But there is so much time for them to find additional talent and figure out the current players' potential.

It is true that we need to hit on Bailey or 2026 as an All-NBA level talent if we're going to get anywhere soon. And the other will probably need to hit all star level at least. That seems optimistic, but I'm not sure its unrealistic. We'll just have to see how the lottery goes next year.

 

[Max Porter]

Unfortunately I don’t think there is a blue print, especially for a small market team that doesn’t attract free agents. OKC is great largely because of SGA and no one could’ve predicted how good he’d be. You have to get lucky in the draft and hope that player doesn’t leave.

 

[Strutter]

Unfortunately I don’t think there is a blue print, especially for a small market team that doesn’t attract free agents. OKC is great largely because of SGA and no one could’ve predicted how good he’d be. You have to get lucky in the draft and hope that player doesn’t leave.

OKC traded for SGA. And the Pacers traded for Siakam and Haliburton.

 

[Tanktastic]

You have to be lucky and your front office needs to be excellent.

The Jazz FO has been truly awful with their decisions for three years now and the luck part seems to be missing as well.

 

[fishonjazz]

OKC just won a championship. They provided a very good realistic template for the Jazz on how to assemble a contender: OKC is a small-market team in a less-then-desirable city without a rich owner. They won by having an MVP-level player (SGA)+ 2 All-Stars (Williams, Holmgren)+ 3 above-average-starters (Hartenstein, Caruso, Dort) + quality bench (Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Wiggins, Joe). Of note, the Thunder has only two large 30+ million contracts in SGA and Hartenstein.

Now, lets look at what the Jazz have. We can argue that in the best case scenario Lauri would be equal to Jalen Williams and Kessler can become our Hartenstein. Being very optimistic again, we can argue that the group of Hendricks, Collier, Cody and Flip can produce 1 above-average starter and 2 quality bench players. Even if everything goes right the Jazz are still short of an MVP-level player (SGA), a second All-Star (Holmgren), 1 above-average starter and a couple of quality bench players.

What's more, keeping Lauri and Kessler means that the Jazz already have their two big contracts by paying them. That means that the only realistic scenario for the Jazz to become realistic contenders is for Ace +2026 pick to reach the level of SGA and Holmgren in 3-4 years, while still being on their rookie contracts. And that the Jazz will somehow successfully pick up or develop several key role players (Caruso, Wallace).

Now, how realistic is that? It looks like paying Lauri and Kessler big money really constricts realistic options for the Jazz to become real contenders with them on the roster. And trading one or both of them would not help much either: the Jazz will have to replace their production with someone else. It does not make me very optimistic about the Jazz becoming a real contender any time soon. Can anyone point out the holes in my reasoning and show that the Jazz do in fact have a realistic path to contending?

You are right. You should probably just stop following/watching the jazz.

 

[fishonjazz]

OKC traded for SGA.

Yep and like the post said, no one could have predicted how good SGA would be. If they could, he doesn't get traded.

 

[jazznik]

Unfortunately I don’t think there is a blue print, especially for a small market team that doesn’t attract free agents. OKC is great largely because of SGA and no one could’ve predicted how good he’d be. You have to get lucky in the draft and hope that player doesn’t leave.

Yes and no. Indiana is in also a small market team that doesn’t attract free agents and they did not get exactly lucky in the draft but they had a very good chance of winning this year too.

I think the blueprint for the teams like the Jazz do exist and it contains several key components:
1. Only two large contracts.
2. Two or three All Stars, with one of them being a top-10 player. And these All Stars need to be either two-way players or someone as good as Jokic.
3. Several quality two-way role players on rookie deals (or somehow very underpaid).

Indiana and Oklahoma had these components and went to finals. Denver had three large contracts instead of two (and not enough good players on rookie contracts) and because of that could not buy the necessary depth.

My problem with the Jazz is that they don't have any potential quality young two-way players (maybe, Hendricks?): Keyonte, Brice, Flip, Collier, Cody - and even Kessler - are all one-dimensional. So, even if Ace suddenly florishes and the 2026 pick develops fast who will be their Dort, Cason Wallace, Nembhard, Nesmith? We will not be able to buy them because the money will be tied up in Lauri and Kessler. And if we tried to trade Lauri and Kessler for them who will be the ones replacing Lauri and Kessler?

I think that the only way to build an actual contender is to trade both Lauri and Walker for picks and trade Keyonte, Brice and Collier either for picks or at least for a young two-way player. That will greatly prolong the tank but that seems the only way to have all three components of the OKC blueprint 4-5 years from now.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

You have to be lucky and your front office needs to be excellent.

The Jazz FO has been truly awful with their decisions for three years now and the luck part seems to be missing as well.

Lauri should’ve been traded that first offseason after Lauri’s first season here to expand the rebuild. Also trading for Collins was the most unnecessary move ever

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Draft big stars, then trade your stars for big packages and somehow convince other stars to ask for a trade to your team then trade that star for a big package. That's the OKC model.

 

[nateboz]

Really makes you wonder if they never traded Mitchell and Gobert. Somehow they made up and built around them. The avenue to become a championship caliber team now is 5 years away.