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Will the Jazz Overachieve?

SoberasHotRod said:
Here's my super scientific analysis of our win total this year.

- The Jazz won 17 games last year.
- The analytics said we lost about 12 games due to "injury" (sitting players)
- John Collins provided 2.5 win shares, Collin Sexton provided 2.5 win shares, and Jordan Clarkson provided 0.4 win shares
- That would leave us at about 23 wins if we play it straight like Austin Ainge is saying we will.

Then you factor in:
- How much worse will we be with the addition of more rookie minutes by Ace/WCJ?
- How much better does Nurk/Niang/Anderson make us?
- How much internal growth will we get from our rookie contract players?

I think our win total range as is could be 15-30. I also kind of don't believe Austin Ainge will play it straight when it comes down to the end of the season and wins only mean decreased odds. I think we very likely win 20-25 games.
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The jazz better not play it straight if it's looking like we are on pace to win 30 games.
Tank note
 
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NAOS_pt2 said:
If they do, then it better be because Kessler is shooting corner 3s, Ace is a ROY candidate, WCJ is playing 25 min+, Hendricks is a beast, and Keyonte is north of 58% true shooting. All of that.
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This
 
JazzFever said:
Thing is I wouldn't be surprised if that is just fine- again it isn't like I'm predicting a winning record- but I do predict we have a winning record vs the east and near .500 at home.

We'll be miserable on the road vs the West and out of the playoffs, but we'll definitely NOT have the worst record in the league and maybe not the worst in the West- I could see us edging out one or two of Portland/San Antonio maybe even the Clips if they implode or GS if they get an injury or two.
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You 100% better be betting on the over for the jazz win total. And you better be betting BIG.
 
if the vets play well, the team will trade them away for future assets or a project or two. they've done it before. if they don't play well, we will probably be 2-4'th pick which is probably about right for our talent minus the expendable vets.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I can't see the Jazz allowing themselves to win more than 20-22 games this year, and it depends upon what Washington and Brooklyn are doing. This is another race to the bottom. Last year, the Jazz guaranteed themselves a top-5 pick. It worked out. They're going to do it again, especially given how strong this next draft is.
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I think one of the differences between last year and this year is that the front office won't tamper with results so early in the season. I think Austin Ainge will do his best to stay true to his convictions of playing things straight for the first half of the year at least. This could result in 3-4 more wins than expected.

Last year we only won 2 games if I'm remembering correctly against the bottom teams in the league. The front office was masterful about sitting Lauri and others early in the season against key tanking matchups. We definitely would have won an extra 4-5 games if we had played it straight, just against those other tanking teams.
 
I think the Jazz will overachieve simply because the expectations are low around the league about the Jazz. Everyone does need to remember that other teams have improved. They will be improved but the real key is if the Jazz buy into improving their defense. Jazz has plenty of guys who can score especially in a team system, but you have to make stops in order to win in the NBA.

Jazz have been horrible on defense, but they have some guys who have great potential, Kessler, ACE, Henderson and C. Williams all have the length and athleticism to be above average defenders. Experience, effort and injuries have been obstacles for them to overcome. I think the Jazz will be better than most people think but the results might not be much better because the West is stacked with good teams. I am excited about this team and who is going to step up when given the chance.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I think one of the differences between last year and this year is that the front office won't tamper with results so early in the season. I think Austin Ainge will do his best to stay true to his convictions of playing things straight for the first half of the year at least. This could result in 3-4 more wins than expected.

Last year we only won 2 games if I'm remembering correctly against the bottom teams in the league. The front office was masterful about sitting Lauri and others early in the season against key tanking matchups. We definitely would have won an extra 4-5 games if we had played it straight, just against those other tanking teams.
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Contusions can occur at any time when necessary.
 
cowhide said:
I think the Jazz will overachieve simply because the expectations are low around the league about the Jazz. Everyone does need to remember that other teams have improved. They will be improved but the real key is if the Jazz buy into improving their defense. Jazz has plenty of guys who can score especially in a team system, but you have to make stops in order to win in the NBA.

Jazz have been horrible on defense, but they have some guys who have great potential, Kessler, ACE, Henderson and C. Williams all have the length and athleticism to be above average defenders. Experience, effort and injuries have been obstacles for them to overcome. I think the Jazz will be better than most people think but the results might not be much better because the West is stacked with good teams. I am excited about this team and who is going to step up when given the chance.
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Henderson = Hendricks?
 
The key question is whether the FO walks the "culture building route" like they claim and let Hardy cook without interfering. If the FO isnt forcing rest games, mandating minutes to potential anchors (e.g. Cody last year) or forcing Hardy to "push development out of guys" like we saw with Lauri iso's last year... then I expect us to overachieve like we did in both seasons where Hardy was allowed to cook without his hands being tied. Sure they may still shoot the tires at the end, but we were .500 near trade deadline in Hardy's first two seasons here. This season I dont think we will touch .500 in January, but we may still end up having around 15-20 wins when the DL arrives.

I think the roster quality is a bit worse than last year even if the 2023 and 2024 draft class guys are probably and hopefully gonna be better this upcoming season... but even if the roster quality is worse if they uncuff Hardy we will probably blow away our win total from last season (+5 or more).
 
HermanG said:
The key question is whether the FO walks the "culture building route" like they claim and let Hardy cook without interfering. If the FO isnt forcing rest games, mandating minutes to potential anchors (e.g. Cody last year) or forcing Hardy to "push development out of guys" like we saw with Lauri iso's last year... then I expect us to overachieve like we did in both seasons where Hardy was allowed to cook without his hands being tied. Sure they may still shoot the tires at the end, but we were .500 near trade deadline in Hardy's first two seasons here. This season I dont think we will touch .500 in January, but we may still end up having around 15-20 wins when the DL arrives.

I think the roster quality is a bit worse than last year even if the 2023 and 2024 draft class guys are probably and hopefully gonna be better this upcoming season... but even if the roster quality is worse if they uncuff Hardy we will probably blow away our win total from last season (+5 or more).
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I'm with you. If we don't manipulate lineups, we will overachieve.
 
Hardy has pent up energy. The players are ready to prove what they have. The front office leaned in to not tanking. Youth play hard.

I expect 35 wins. A hot start and a cold finish. And a lot of pissed off JazzFanz'ers.
 
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