What should the FO do if we are 0.500 by January?

[HadAnEffectHere]

No, you dont. I dont know why people convince themselves of this. I guess it's a kind of homer effect where you think everyone is great on your team and will experience a uniform line of progression.

Svi isnt a world beater, but he has been a solid player on both ends. Brice/Ace/Cody have not proven they can do that. They will lose you more games simply on the back of how many more mistakes they will commit per 48 minutes. Maybe Brice develops in season to the point where he can match or surpass Svi, but he's a walking red target on defense (same with Flip).

Nurkic has been our best rebounder by a country mile to the point where it's kind of tough for us to consistently rebound without him (there were long stretches where Clingan was treating Kessler like his son on the boards, particularly in the 3rd quarter). If he isnt playing and you're giving Flip his minutes, the team will greatly suffer.

I am extremely doubtful Svi continues to put together many more good games and he and Brice are probably at the same real level of competency.

I mean, yes, the Jazz could nibble around the edges and intentionally sabotage the team by playing guys out of position etc, but I don't know what the long-term point of any of that would be. Does Ace look like he's going to contribute during Lauri's current contract?

 

[bigmike]

If we're .500 I think we go full tank mode at that point. But I think .500 is optimistic.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I am extremely doubtful Svi continues to put together many more good games and he and Brice are probably at the same real level of competency.

I mean, yes, the Jazz could nibble around the edges and intentionally sabotage the team by playing guys out of position etc, but I don't know what the long-term point of any of that would be. Does Ace look like he's going to contribute during Lauri's current contract?

Svi seems to be playing with a better understanding of not taking too many bad shots and he's on another planet than Brice defensively, which is ultimately what holds Brice back. So yeah, I'd put Svi at a higher level of competency until Brice can earn Hardy's full trust.

The Jazz are already playing guys out of position. Flip is starting at the 3 and not being used as a hub at all. I feel like he's going to have the equivalent of Walker's 2nd season where he's kind of the odd man out of the rotations and things arent going to be planned out with him in mind and they just want him to use this year to learn/adapt to challenges.

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

If we are .500 in January then Lauris trade value is high. I think there would be some strong suitors and strong offers.

I am bullish on Lauri but he STILL doesnt fit the rimeline. Lauri to the Hawks for the Pelicans 1st vs to the Spurs for several picks both look like really good moves for all parties.

Paying Kessler is easier to do at that point. The tank is ethical as well.

 

[LogGrad98]

They should ****ing be fired, all of them. So much for Ainge the Wizard of Boston. He just fell into a good set of circumstances there, and it gets attributed to supernatural basketball instincts. Yeah, ********. Where are those instincts now?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

OK, so for me after thinking about it for awhile I think it depends on how Ace looks by then.

I think if Ace looks like he can be a real guy, then we would have Lauri and Ace as our guys, Kessler as a starting piece, Keyonte as a potential starting piece, and some promising rookie contract rotation players. That's enough to start filling in gaps with trades and free agency. I think I just go for it at that point and see if I can get the team some playoff experience. I guess it could depend on how the draft is looking at that point as well.

If Ace is looking questionable then I think you have to try and see if you can get away with the unethical tank again to give yourself as high of a chance at a top 3 guy from the draft as you can. At that point it is even less likely that Lauri fits your timeline though, so maybe you just have to trade him and if Kessler is outwardly unhappy, then you probably have to trade him as well.

A lot would depend on Ace in this scenario.

 

[infection]

We’re just in such a tough spot. Honestly the best possible case is that we’re somewhat competitive but miss the playoffs and are able to win the lottery from the back of it. That’s asking for the moon. But deliberately choosing has so many drawbacks on each side. We need to tank above all, but it’s harder to do that and comes with more cost. But the reality is also very likely that we tank and get ****ed, just like last year.

We’re in this situation as a result of stacking so many bad decisions, justifying each one as “it doesn’t matter.” I just hope it works out but I look at all the scenarios nominally and see like one possibility out of the 10 as being good (we are competitive and win from the back of the lottery) and all of the other 9 scenarios ranging from bad to worse.

I think maybe a better way to put this is that I don’t believe we have much, if any, control over what happens. If we decide we’re going to win, I don’t believe us deciding that and making moves to do it will have a strong correlation with winning. If we’re going to win, we’re going to win. Likewise, if we choose to tank, I don’t believe us trying to tank will actually add that much to tanking — if we’re going to lose, we’ll lose. There will be a marginal amount more we could win by if we wanted to, and a marginal amount more we could lose by if we wanted to lose, but the bottom line is that we’ll just have to let it play out. We’re headed downhill on a sled that we can’t control. We could have a thrilling ride or we could get swallowed by the avalanche. We can’t steer it and we shouldn’t pretend that we’ll influence the outcome. The decisions that could affect the outcome were made long ago. Hopefully luck can smile upon us, whatever that may ultimately mean.

 

[Shad]

Cam boozer would look really good over Flip starting. Just saying

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

We won’t be .500. Our 2nd unit with Ace, Brice, Walt and Nurkic is a sieve on defense.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

We won’t be .500. Our 2nd unit with Ace, Brice, Walt and Nurkic is a sieve on defense.

Not the point, smh.

 

[gomretat]

They should ****ing be fired, all of them. So much for Ainge the Wizard of Boston. He just fell into a good set of circumstances there, and it gets attributed to supernatural basketball instincts. Yeah, ********. Where are those instincts now?

What is indisputable is that AInge got very lucky in Boston. No one could have predicted or orchestrated how fast Brooklyn got bad or the picks Boston got. Maybe he is still a great basketball mind but the way our "rebuild" has been managed makes no sense and seems like we were banking on being lucky.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Not the point, smh.

Okay, the Jazz would do an unethical tank. People would be held out with nicks and bruises. Players would be played out of position. Young players would be asked to push their limits. Etc. This is what the Spurs do, and I hear the Spurs are a well-run organization.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Okay, the Jazz would do an unethical tank. People would be held out with nicks and bruises. Players would be played out of position. Young players would be asked to push their limits. Etc. This is what the Spurs do, and I hear the Spurs are a well-run organization.

Closer, but what would YOU do?

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Closer, but what would YOU do?

That's what I'd do. A season where the Jazz ultimately win 34 games and lose a much-needed draft pick would be a complete waste. This team has a few pieces that will work at a high level, but nothing more. Once the team is really put together with a high ceiling, then they can have a season with a win-total in the 30s as part of their ascent.

The Jazz are like OKC before OKC got Chet and JDub. We hope Ace becomes like our JDub.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There are only bad choices here. I chose to make a trade as I think the NBA is going to get wild with tanking because of the gambling allegations. I wouldn't be surprised to see them take it out on a bad team if teams are just sitting healthy good players. A real showy "we take this seriously" punishment.

So I think it will be cutting guys like Svi's time but if you were .500 by then you'd need to cut deeper. A Walker trade would go a long ways. Lauri trades are harder. I also think they are more bought in on Lauri than Walker. They avoid having to pay more than they wanted for Walker and get an asset and tank.

 

[fishonjazz]

OK, so for me after thinking about it for awhile I think it depends on how Ace looks by then.

I think if Ace looks like he can be a real guy, then we would have Lauri and Ace as our guys, Kessler as a starting piece, Keyonte as a potential starting piece, and some promising rookie contract rotation players. That's enough to start filling in gaps with trades and free agency. I think I just go for it at that point and see if I can get the team some playoff experience. I guess it could depend on how the draft is looking at that point as well.

If Ace is looking questionable then I think you have to try and see if you can get away with the unethical tank again to give yourself as high of a chance at a top 3 guy from the draft as you can. At that point it is even less likely that Lauri fits your timeline though, so maybe you just have to trade him and if Kessler is outwardly unhappy, then you probably have to trade him as well.

A lot would depend on Ace in this scenario.

Good thoughts.
For me personally, I dont think Ace is good enough. I still think we are lacking our prize for all this tanking BS. I think this is the last year for it.
Btw im incredibly bias when it comes to tanking this season. BYU for the 1st time ever has the top recruit in the nation AND that could coincide with the jazz having the (a) top pick in the draft that he will be drafted in. I think that AJ having an amazing college season followed by the Jazz drafting him would be the best thing to ever happen in my sports fandom lifetime. Guaranteed he would be my favorite player of all time and I would be buying all the jerseys and all the gear. So I really really want to tank this season for my own personal and selfish reasons.

 

[fishonjazz]

I think maybe a better way to put this is that I don’t believe we have much, if any, control over what happens. If we decide we’re going to win, I don’t believe us deciding that and making moves to do it will have a strong correlation with winning. If we’re going to win, we’re going to win. Likewise, if we choose to tank, I don’t believe us trying to tank will actually add that much to tanking — if we’re going to lose, we’ll lose. There will be a marginal amount more we could win by if we wanted to, and a marginal amount more we could lose by if we wanted to lose, but the bottom line is that we’ll just have to let it play out. We’re headed downhill on a sled that we can’t control. We could have a thrilling ride or we could get swallowed by the avalanche. We can’t steer it and we shouldn’t pretend that we’ll influence the outcome. The decisions that could affect the outcome were made long ago. Hopefully luck can smile upon us, whatever that may ultimately mean.

Gotta disagree with this. If we choose to tank and trade nurk, lauri and kessler then I think that has large effect on losing rather than marginal.
Also if we decide to trade picks/young prospects etc for guys like Jrue holiday types (good veteran proven players) then it has a large effect on winning rather than marginal.

 

[fishonjazz]

A season where the Jazz ultimately win 34 games and lose a much-needed draft pick would be a complete waste. This team has a few pieces that will work at a high level, but nothing more. Once the team is really put together with a high ceiling, then they can have a season with a win-total in the 30s as part of their ascent.

This. Winning 30 games or so would be the worst case scenario ever.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we manage to get a loss on Friday I think we are kind of where I expected... just got there in a different way. The schedule is going to get harder for sure. I think our choices will be more of... win 30 games playing it pretty straight. Managing a few legit injuries conservatively and having guys like Svi and Nurk play less for young experimental lineups... and win 25 games.

But some of the injury luck (like getting minny twice without Ant) may produce some wins we didn't expect.

 

[JazzFever]

The reality is we are 3rd or 4th worst IN THE WEST as things stand. Adding in the East that is another 5 teams worst than us.

So regardless of the .500 hypothetical we are teetering on the edge of 8th place- before possible jumps by other lottery teams.

If we were in the East I’d say go for it since we would have a fairly easy path to at a play-in at the least. Being in the West complicates things, since climbing the ladder to a play in team is much more fraught no matter how all in we go for it.

In the end I think you just play it straight and hope the lottery saves our behinds and if its allowed pick up a late 1st pick to swap with the wolves if they go south, since Lauri is the kind of player right now that you’d be hoping to draft and I don’t want to lose both him AND Kessler for the hope of a straight younger substitution.