Double salaries from here on out

[Hopper]

From the Trib:

"the acquisition of Jefferson would take the Jazz’s payroll into luxury-tax territory — the threshold is $70.3 million — by itself. The Jazz would still need to add players to meet roster minimums."

I aint tried to calculate this myself, and simply assume it's accurate, in which case if the Jazz agree to pay another player $7 million, they'll effectively pay $14 million next year (absent a salary dump).

Complicates everything, don't it?

I'm still thinkin that the Jazz will allow (encourage) Memo to malinger until the insurance kicks in, then dump him ala Harp, last year.

 

[Jazzfannut83]

Maybe Greg is saying "You know what, what the heck...AK's contract is off the books next yr, there's probably gonna be a lockout...lets let it all hang out, two yrs of paying the luxury tax ain't gonna prevent me from feeding my family".

OK, now back to reality...glad i'm not a GM.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Hope they are watching summer league closely.

 

[Hopper]

The Jazz have held on to AK this long so why stop now? If AK plays (one big if) and plays well (another if) and he indicates that's he's willing to take a reasonable salary after this year (that's 3 ifs, right there), they won't trade him. So, like, who else ya gunna dump, see what I'm axxin?

 

[Jazzfannut83]

Well, ain't, it'd depend on what his contract demands would be and what other teams offer. AK will be, what, 30 after the season? If he has a solid, non-injury plagued yr then some team (cough Portland cough) will probably offer him a nice, frontloaded contract.

 

[Hopper]

If he has a solid, non-injury plagued yr then some team (cough Portland cough) will probably offer him a nice, frontloaded contract.

Heh, well, that would be fine too, of course. I think the Jazz have the exclusive right to negotiate a new deal with AK this year, before he becomes a free agent. If he wants an unreasonable sum, they'll no doubt let him hit the RFA market. If he's willing to accept a reasonable offer, I think they'll re-sign him. We'll see, I guess.

I guess the bigger point, right now, is this: I still see a lot of "first we can sign this guy for $4 million (effectively $8 million), then we can sign that guy...." talk on the board. Probably not likely, at this point. The Jazz are much more likely to sign guys like Augustine for $800,000 per year than Shannon Brown as a backup for 3-4 million, I figure.

 

[One Brow]

Heh, well, that would be fine too, of course. I think the Jazz have the exclusive right to negotiate a new deal with AK this year, before he becomes a free agent. If he wants an unreasonable sum, they'll no doubt let him hit the RFA market. If he's willing to accept a reasonable offer, I think they'll re-sign him. We'll see, I guess.

However, I believe there is a minimum decline in a contract extension (maybe 10%), and the Jazz are more likely looking for 40-60%. So, I don't think an extension is feasible. I have not double-checked that, so I could easily be wrong.

 

[UB]

Maybe Greg is saying "You know what, what the heck...AK's contract is off the books next yr, there's probably gonna be a lockout...lets let it all hang out, two yrs of paying the luxury tax ain't gonna prevent me from feeding my family".

OK, now back to reality...glad i'm not a GM.

Greg Miller has this ENTIRE quote tattooed on the small of his back. The whole thing. Right below the purple butterfly.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Well, don't forget the Jazz were, at what, an $80M payroll heading into last season? Then Miller had KOC dump Harpring, which also cost us Maynor, and then Brewer. Let's hope he's not expecting KOC to "dump" AK. A $17M salary offload would cost us Hayward, most likely.

IMO, I think they'll either pay the tax and just let AK's contract expire, or do a one-sided trade in which they find a team that can absorb $17M in exchange for giving us $10-12M back in longer-term deals. They could do that if a team would still be under the cap after taking on the extra $5-$7M.

Probably depends on how AK does in his role as a backup PF. If he returns to anywhere near his old form, then maybe KOC and Greg will be willing to offer him a new 3-yr deal at the MLE. If not, then he has more value as an expiring or as simply a disappearing expense after this season.

Of course, the development of Hayward, status of Memo, development of Fes/KK/Tomic or another backup center and what happens at SG also may affect AK's status with the team. If Hayward and CJ look like they'll be solid starters in 2011, then Utah won't need AK at SF - provided they can find another adequate backup (and assuming Matthews is gone). And if Memo comes back 100% or Fes/KK earn minutes, then Memo, KK or Jefferson can get the minutes behind Millsap and Okur or Fes can play the remaining minutes at the 5 behind Jefferson.

Here's my scenario in 2011:
C-Jefferson (35), Fes or Okur (13)
PF-Millsap (30), Okur (18). With Tomic perhaps taking over in 2012.
SF-Hayward (32), Miles (16). Hoping Hayward is the real deal
SG - "TBD" (32), Miles (16).
PG - Deron (38), McLeod (10).

Just kidding on McLeod, but get rid of Price and Gaines already!!! They're not quality POINT guards. Both are undersized SG's.

With the Harp exception or AK's expiring - or the MLE - I think we need to find an all-star caliber SG or SF. If SF, then maybe Hayward comes off the bench to back up both spots and CJ starts at SG.

My hope also is that Fes becomes the "big, body defensive center" we crave. Just go in and bang for 10-15 mins. I don't see him as a starter, but he could make a nice livign as as a good backup. Centers get paid big bucks, so perhaps take a chance and lock him up soon. He showed decent promise in the playoffs.

 

[Borat]

With Jefferson (assuming we get him and not give anyone to Wolves), Utah's payroll is right at 72 million mark. That puts us 1.7 mil over tax, and includes 9 guys: Big Al, Sap, AK, CJ, DWill, Okur, Hayward, Price, Koufos. We still need to get 3 more guys, and it is double the salaries from here on out. We might have to full out the roster with likes of Gains, Evans, and Fess (if he is under a mil) just to keep spending down, and maybe pursue some kind of AK trade. Gotta give credit to Greg here, he knows if we can't trade AK, we will be a few mil in tax, and still approved the deal. It's this type of commitment that I was hoping for, and Greg surely delivered (assuming the trade goes through of course).

 

[Hopper]

However, I believe there is a minimum decline in a contract extension (maybe 10%), and the Jazz are more likely looking for 40-60%. So, I don't think an extension is feasible. I have not double-checked that, so I could easily be wrong.

I dunno, offhand, and aint gunna bother to try to find out right now, Eric, but it wouldn't surprise me if you're right. That said, there are always loopholes. They could "buy out" AK (even for $0) and end his current contract, then sign him to a new one, I think. If not, there's some other way, I figure.

 

[Stifle Tower]

With Jefferson (assuming we get him and not give anyone to Wolves), Utah's payroll is right at 72 million mark. That puts us 1.7 mil over tax, and includes 9 guys: Big Al, Sap, AK, CJ, DWill, Okur, Hayward, Price, Koufos. We still need to get 3 more guys, and it is double the salaries from here on out. We might have to full out the roster with likes of Gains, Evans, and Fess (if he is under a mil) just to keep spending down, and maybe pursue some kind of AK trade. Gotta give credit to Greg here, he knows if we can't trade AK, we will be a few mil in tax, and still approved the deal. It's this type of commitment that I was hoping for, and Greg surely delivered (assuming the trade goes through of course).

Agree with that. I'm pretty surprised, actually.

I think Gaines comes back. Jazz always carry 3 PG's. Evans probably makes the roster, unless they can convince him to play in Europe for a year. I still like Fes. He can give us 10-15 mins. I think they'll match any "reasonable" offer. And Portland has now used up their annual , "Try to Screw the Jazz Exception" so maybe no one else will offer him an insane contract.

Brewer, IMO, will be back, unless Memphis outbids us. He's Deron's little buddy. I think KOC and Greg underestimated the backlash they'd get from Williams last season. They need a wing with Matthews leaving. Brewer may not be quite as good as some of the other FA's out there, but he was happy in Utah and he'll come cheap after his injury.