Stat prediction - in depth look

[Jazz4ever]

DWill: 21 PPG / 3 RPG / 9.5 APG / 1.2 SPG
---I don't really see much of a change in Deron's stats at all. Jefferson replacing Boozer will mean a slight dip in assists as Al will surely post up in iso situations if he has a favorable matchup. In these situations, Deron will be used more to just space the floor as a three point threat. As a set, stand still shooter Deron should be near 40% from three and believe he will reach 21 points a game.

Big Al: 19 PPG / 9 RPG / 2 APG / 1.4 BPG
---Al will take some time to adjust to the Jazz offense but I can also see Sloan adjusting the offense a little to accomodate Al. Unlike Boozer, Al can only be used for pick and rolls, not pick and pop, which limits him against teams with good team D. I do see him cracking 20 ppg after next season though.

Paul Milsap: 15 PPG / 8 RPG / 2 APG / 1.6 BPG
---With Al playing alot of center, Milsap is going to have a mini breakout year. Milsap will be getting plenty of open looks from cuts and mid range jumpers from double teams on Al Jefferson. If his shooting last year was no fluke, Milsap should get 15 points a game without much trouble. For those who doubt this, I'll remind them Milsap averaged an effecient 18/9/2 in the post season this year.

Mehmet Okur: 11 PPG / 6.5 RPG / 1.5 APG
---Okur will be used very sparingly early on, hurting his averages. Achilles injuries never seem to be 100% recoverable from though, and at 31 Okur is probably on his way to becoming a glorified Matt Bonner. When Jefferson is out, Okur will still be called upon to score though, so should be at 11-12 PPG. The good thing is 3 point shooting is the last thing to go, and Okur has been above his career percentage on that the last two years.

Andrei Kirilenko: 13 PPG / 6 RPG / 3.5 APG / 1.5 SPG / 1.8 BPG
---Its a pipe dream to think AK will ever return to 2004 form, but last year AK did statistically have his best year since the 2005 season, putting up a super effecient 18.2 PER. You could argue his injury made that irrelevant, but thats for another discussion. The extra weight of AK clearly helped him finish at the rim where he converted 65% of his inside shorts while shooting over 50% overall. His jumper is still barely adequate, at best, which has limited him as a player quite a bit. AK, provided he is healthy, will get more minutes this year with Korver, Brewer, and Matthews gone and I expect all his numbers to be up.

CJ Miles: 11 PPG / 3 RPG / 2 APG
---Last year was bad for CJ, the numbers don't lie. It was supposed to be his breakout year and we know what happened next. A finger injury, and the emergence of Wesley Matthews. To his credit, CJ did play solid in the playoffs, and has toughened up a little to become at least an average defender. My expectations have long been tempered with him though, and see his numbers rising mostly from more minutes than better play.

Raja Bell: 10 PPG / 3 RPG / 1.5 APG
---Since both Miles and Hayward will struggle guarding SG's, I see Bell getting quite a few minutes. Our season will depend alot on how good of a defender he still is at age 34. His last full season (2008-2009), he had not shown any signs of age at all.

Gordon Hayward: 6 PPG / 2 RPG / 1APG
---Hayward's minutes will depend alot on how well he can guard the 2 or if AK can stay healthy. Given Sloan's history of playing rookies, Hayward will probably not see many minutes otherwise.

Price, Fesenko, Gaines....not worth the time

 

[candrew]

I'd love to see Big Al use his baby hook more sparingly and set up more in the low block. His career FT/game stats are underwhealming for a big man. If DW can forget about his numbers and concentrate on getting AJ the ball in the right spots, it could translate into more FT's and maybe 21-23ppg for him.

 

[davidbenoit]

Nice work. What I would change:

I think you have Deron's PPG too high. I think he'll be in the 17-18 range and his assists will be near 10.5 again this year. His supporting cast is fairly young and they are going to improve over last year and will pick up some slack.
I'm really banking on Al to thrive in our system so I say he's closer to 22-24 ppg.
I'd switch AK's and CJ's PPG
I see most of Raja's energy spent on the defensive end so only about 7PPG for him.

You have us scoring 106 a game even with out including Price, Fes and Gaines. I also had a hard time keeping the PPG in that range. It looks like this team is going to be quite the offensive beast! We definitely have a lot of weapons. I think our tipping point will really be our 3 point shooting. Will Raja still shoot at a 40% clip? Can CJ improve his shot? Will Gordo shoot like his last year in college or like he shot the previous years? Even D-Will is a question mark. His 3pt % has varied year to year.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Nice work. What I would change:

I think you have Deron's PPG too high. I think he'll be in the 17-18 range and his assists will be near 10.5 again this year. His supporting cast is fairly young and they are going to improve over last year and will pick up some slack.
I'm really banking on Al to thrive in our system so I say he's closer to 22-24 ppg.
I'd switch AK's and CJ's PPG
I see most of Raja's energy spent on the defensive end so only about 7PPG for him.

You have us scoring 106 a game even with out including Price, Fes and Gaines. I also had a hard time keeping the PPG in that range. It looks like this team is going to be quite the offensive beast! We definitely have a lot of weapons. I think our tipping point will really be our 3 point shooting. Will Raja still shoot at a 40% clip? Can CJ improve his shot? Will Gordo shoot like his last year in college or like he shot the previous years? Even D-Will is a question mark. His 3pt % has varied year to year.

Well, you can't just aggregate the numbers to come up with 106 points/per game. Some of the individual stats MIGHT be for 82 games, other players will certainly miss 10-15 games and be replaced by less efficient players. Jazz were fourth in the NBA at 104 points/per and second in FG% at 49.1. Take away Carlos' gaudy stats and I think there will definitely be a downward effect. There has to be. Carlos is one of the most efficient PF's in the NBA on the offensive end. But we knew that.

I think the Jazz will slip a bit, especially early as Jefferson learns the offense and everyone gets used to their roles. But I think any slippage (maybe a couple of points/per and perhaps 47% shooting) will be more than made up on the defensive side. Now what could offset that is cutting back on turnovers. The Jazz were 4th worst in the NBA last season, Sure, Utah was tied for #1 in A/TO. But just improving to middle of the pack in terms of total TO's would give the Jazz 2 extra shots per game. Another area that could be improved is rebounding. Jazz were only 12th in the league last season. Maybe not having Boozer around will encourage all the bigs to pound the glass. Jefferson, Millsap and AK are all strong rebounders. I look for the team to improve in that area.

 

[vj_74]

what matters more is what we do on the defensive end. The offense is there. How we work as ateam on the defensive end will determine how far we go this year. That, and health.

 

[davidbenoit]

Well, you can't just aggregate the numbers to come up with 106 points/per game. Some of the individual stats MIGHT be for 82 games, other players will certainly miss 10-15 games and be replaced by less efficient players.

Smart man. I never would have thought of that.

 

[Harcher]

what matters more is what we do on the defensive end. The offense is there. How we work as ateam on the defensive end will determine how far we go this year. That, and health.

I think this is true, but I will add that against the Lakers our problems included some offensive bog down as a result of their size inside. Boozer's game stalled a bit and the hope is that AJ stay at max level even against the lakers. And yes, when the Jazz were on the 18-2 run last year looking real good, it was the defense that was the determining factor (and not playing the lakers 5 games in a row in play-off intensity ball...)

 

[NAOS]

DWill: 21 PPG / 3 RPG / 9.5 APG / 1.2 SPG
---I don't really see much of a change in Deron's stats at all. Jefferson replacing Boozer will mean a slight dip in assists as Al will surely post up in iso situations if he has a favorable matchup. In these situations, Deron will be used more to just space the floor as a three point threat. As a set, stand still shooter Deron should be near 40% from three and believe he will reach 21 points a game.

Big Al: 19 PPG / 9 RPG / 2 APG / 1.4 BPG
---Al will take some time to adjust to the Jazz offense but I can also see Sloan adjusting the offense a little to accomodate Al. Unlike Boozer, Al can only be used for pick and rolls, not pick and pop, which limits him against teams with good team D. I do see him cracking 20 ppg after next season though.

Paul Milsap: 15 PPG / 8 RPG / 2 APG / 1.6 BPG
---With Al playing alot of center, Milsap is going to have a mini breakout year. Milsap will be getting plenty of open looks from cuts and mid range jumpers from double teams on Al Jefferson. If his shooting last year was no fluke, Milsap should get 15 points a game without much trouble. For those who doubt this, I'll remind them Milsap averaged an effecient 18/9/2 in the post season this year.

Mehmet Okur: 11 PPG / 6.5 RPG / 1.5 APG
---Okur will be used very sparingly early on, hurting his averages. Achilles injuries never seem to be 100% recoverable from though, and at 31 Okur is probably on his way to becoming a glorified Matt Bonner. When Jefferson is out, Okur will still be called upon to score though, so should be at 11-12 PPG. The good thing is 3 point shooting is the last thing to go, and Okur has been above his career percentage on that the last two years.

Andrei Kirilenko: 13 PPG / 6 RPG / 3.5 APG / 1.5 SPG / 1.8 BPG
---Its a pipe dream to think AK will ever return to 2004 form, but last year AK did statistically have his best year since the 2005 season, putting up a super effecient 18.2 PER. You could argue his injury made that irrelevant, but thats for another discussion. The extra weight of AK clearly helped him finish at the rim where he converted 65% of his inside shorts while shooting over 50% overall. His jumper is still barely adequate, at best, which has limited him as a player quite a bit. AK, provided he is healthy, will get more minutes this year with Korver, Brewer, and Matthews gone and I expect all his numbers to be up.

CJ Miles: 11 PPG / 3 RPG / 2 APG
---Last year was bad for CJ, the numbers don't lie. It was supposed to be his breakout year and we know what happened next. A finger injury, and the emergence of Wesley Matthews. To his credit, CJ did play solid in the playoffs, and has toughened up a little to become at least an average defender. My expectations have long been tempered with him though, and see his numbers rising mostly from more minutes than better play.

Raja Bell: 10 PPG / 3 RPG / 1.5 APG
---Since both Miles and Hayward will struggle guarding SG's, I see Bell getting quite a few minutes. Our season will depend alot on how good of a defender he still is at age 34. His last full season (2008-2009), he had not shown any signs of age at all.

Gordon Hayward: 6 PPG / 2 RPG / 1APG
---Hayward's minutes will depend alot on how well he can guard the 2 or if AK can stay healthy. Given Sloan's history of playing rookies, Hayward will probably not see many minutes otherwise.

Price, Fesenko, Gaines....not worth the time

Pretty solid predictions, I think, but I'm compelled to say a couple of things.
First, I don't think the pick-n-roll replacing the pick-n-pop necessitates your vision of the offense. If expertly executed, DWill's assist numbers could easily go up. Those are high percentage shots. I think he'll be around 19.5pts and 11ast by the end of the year. Stellar. Best in the business.

Second, I think you are being unfair about CJ's setbacks last year. I understand your frustration, but that injury wasn't trivial. I think, if healthy, he can be on average 4 points, 1 rebound, and 2 assists better than your projections. Also, getting more minutes isn't trivial; he's likely to get them because he earned them; the end of last season was exciting to see.

I agree most with your thoughts on Millsap, btw. +1

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If we are going to average around 106 ppg, then I think Dwill will at least 10 APG, if not 11.

 

[Twin Towers]

Deron - 19 Points per game with 10 assists per game

Big Al - 20 points per game with 10 rebounds per game.

Millsap - 15 points per game with 8 rebounds.

AK's will score less and average around 10 points per game. 5 Assists per game

Miles - 12 points per game.

Bell - 10 points per game.

Okur - 10 points per game.

Hayward - 5 points per game.

We might score less because we will be scoring in the paint more having Jefferson & Millsap scoring down low. Takes more time off the clock. Less 3 point shots. This will also increase our chances of getting back on defense. Overall we will improve as a team. We will score more efficiently though. Rebounding will be better also.

Turnovers is the only thing that worries me. Can Big Al learn to pass? once he is willing will he understand the offense enough? Millsap, Bell, AK & Miles understand the offense enough and play smart enough. I think we will be about the same though on turnovers but we will see.

Blocks will be increased a little. Big Al, AK, Millsap will all average about 1.5 blocks per game each. Okur won't average a block a game after the injury. We will contest more shots and we are also longer and more aggressive.

Price will still be out of control and throw the ball out of bounds and take horrible shots..... The End

 

[Stifle Tower]

Turnovers is the only thing that worries me. Can Big Al learn to pass? once he is willing will he understand the offense enough? Millsap, Bell, AK & Miles understand the offense enough and play smart enough. I think we will be about the same though on turnovers but we will see.

Why does everyone have a misconception that Jefferson is a TO machine. He averaged less than 2 per game. You know who averaged nearly 3? Carlos Boozer. Booz was a turnover waiting to happen when he'd try to turn into the lane.

We just need Deron to be a bit more careful with the ball. I know he has a great A/TO ratio, but at times he gets sloppy. Memo play fewer minutes - and being the "pop" option should also cut down on TO's. Okur was trying to hard to develop his inside game, often at the expense of losing control of the himself or the ball.

 

[Twin Towers]

Why does everyone have a misconception that Jefferson is a TO machine. He averaged less than 2 per game. You know who averaged nearly 3? Carlos Boozer. Booz was a turnover waiting to happen when he'd try to turn into the lane.

We just need Deron to be a bit more careful with the ball. I know he has a great A/TO ratio, but at times he gets sloppy. Memo play fewer minutes - and being the "pop" option should also cut down on TO's. Okur was trying to hard to develop his inside game, often at the expense of losing control of the himself or the ball.

Everyone knows Boozer and Okur had a lot of bad turnovers. But Jefferson will be asked to pass more often this year in the Jazz offense. That is why it is questionable if he will get more turnovers. He didn't pass much on his other teams but this is the first time he will get the opportunity to do so with the Jazz. I never said he was turnover machine. But he is not experienced or proven to be a passer. So it worries me when he is given the opportunity next year. But Millsap is a better passer than Okur and Boozer. So who knows we might be better. Depends on Jefferson more than anything.