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Weak draft vs strong draft?

Gameface

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Personally I don't buy into it. Since I've been visiting Jazzfanz.com I've heard this notion put forth one way or the other every year. I'd love to see a breakdown of talent 4 years later from a "weak draft" vs a "strong draft."

I mean, I actually have no clue. I don't follow college ball at all and I don't know a single thing about a single potential draftee other than UGLI likes some Kobongo guy and some dude named Schroder suddenly deserves his own thread on my beloved Jazzfanz message board. So if your first inclination is to attack my credentials you're out of luck, I don't have any.
 
Gameface said:
Personally I don't buy into it. Since I've been visiting Jazzfanz.com I've heard this notion put forth one way or the other every year. I'd love to see a breakdown of talent 4 years later from a "weak draft" vs a "strong draft."

I mean, I actually have no clue. I don't follow college ball at all and I don't know a single thing about a single potential draftee other than UGLI likes some Kobongo guy and some dude named Schroder suddenly deserves his own thread on my beloved Jazzfanz message board. So if your first inclination is to attack my credentials you're out of luck, I don't have any.
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I think the bulk of the draft is ok. The top 5 are not as strong as they usually are, in my opinion, but the first round should yield some good NBA players, like every year.
 
I think it's over generalizing by simply saying this is a "strong draft" or a "weak draft". This draft may not have a sure fire All Star in the top #5 pick, but I would argue that the talent in the #6 - #20 pick is as good as any other drafts in recent memory, to be honest witchu.
 
When the media says strong draft, that means the draft has a lot of star potential. When they say weak, that means it has very few to no stars in it. The media isn't concerned about depth of the draft, because that is not exciting or newsworthy to the average NBA fan.

If you look at this draft, you have good depth in PG and Centers. You even have some good SG prospects in the latter part of the 1st round and early 2nd round.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
When the media says strong draft, that means the draft has a lot of star potential. When they say weak, that means it has very few to no stars in it. The media isn't concerned about depth of the draft, because that is not exciting or newsworthy to the average NBA fan.

If you look at this draft, you have good depth in PG and Centers. You even have some good SG prospects in the latter part of the 1st round and early 2nd round.
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You forgot to mention a potential All Stars in Porter.
 
2008 draft was strong in hindsight: D Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Love, Westbrook, Gallinari, E. Gordon, Lopez brothers, Hibbert, McGee, Hickson, Ryan Anderson, Ibaka, Batum, George Hill, & Pekovic the automatic 1st pick of 2nd round do to contract situation.

Beasley was a bust but had a ton of talent and worth the risk at the time. Mayo hasn't panned out but he's contributing. Also, the phantom Ante Tomic was taken that year, as was Kosta Koufus, one of KOC's biggest "Pick Whitey" boneheaded drafts (the other being that 2004 debacle where he got jack squat out of three first round picks in a draft that produced plenty first round talent after he picked. A monkey chucking darts at a draft board would have picked better).
 
Yeah, I think it is irrelevant. Whether it is a strong draft or weak draft, you have to be smart. Darko/Marko (what was his name) was taken #3 in a stronger draft. Great players came out of weak drafts. You just have to make sure you do your homework. Instead of strong vs weak, we should see how good of a job KOC has done over the years.

2000 - Deshawn and Dickens. I'd say a good draft. Deshawn is a great pick to take at 23, and while he didn't pan out in Utah, he was definitely an NBA player.

2001 - Lopez and Collins - Good draft. Lopez is a "what might have been" and Collins was a very good player for a long time.

2002 - Humphrey and Sampson - Humphrey was traded to Orlando for Borchardt. Only Prince and Boozer taken after. This was a bad draft overall.

2003 - Pavlovic and Mo - Both are NBA players, Mo was an above average one. Good draft

2004 - Humphries, Snyder and Pavel - Humphries is a NBA player. BUT, then you look at players taken after Hump. Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin, Anderson Varajao. KOC dropped the ball in this draft. Big time.

2005 - Deron, CJ, Whaley - Great draft.

2006 - Brewer, Brown, Millsap - Great draft

2007 - Almond, Hill - Bad draft. Players that were available - Aaron Afllalo. When you see that, it wasn't a bad draft at all. That draft just didn't have any NBA players in it.

2008 - Kouf, Tomic, Drag - Available players: Ibaka, Batum, Hill. KOC missed the boat here.

2009 - Maynor, Suton - Good draft. Maynor is an NBA player.

2010 - Hayward, Evans - good draft. Hayward looks like a very good player.

2011 and beyond - too early to tell.

This means out of 10 drafts, KOC has:

7 good drafts, 1 BAD draft, and 2 draft years that had little to no talent. The odds are that KOC will find NBA players. Look at the players he has drafted in the late lottery, out of the lottery, and second round:

DeShawn, Collins, Pavlovic, Mo, Humphries, Brewer, Millsap, CJ, Kouf, Maynor. He will find NBA players if they are to be found.
 
i firmly believe this draft is stronger than what most Jazzfanz would tell you, id trade for a bunch of 1st rounders if i had roster space
 
This is actually a pretty good draft in the mid-late lottery talent-wise. It's very weak upfront in the top five and drops off in the late teens, but has good quality where it needs to be for our #14 pick.
 
Your talent from about 3-15 is going to be very, very similar. So it's a good year to have a lottery pick, but a bad year to have an early lottery pick.
 
We are all entitled to opinions and I've explained my position on the topic too many times already..

There WILL be some very good players come from this draft.. just fewer than normal and sorely lacking the stars at the top.

I would say that if next years draft class were to enter this draft, there might be as many as 6 go ahead of McLemore/Noel... and I don't see the middle round of this draft as strong as next year's either.

I'm not asking anyone to agree ... but I am certain.
 
PKM said:
We are all entitled to opinions and I've explained my position on the topic too many times already..

There WILL be some very good players come from this draft.. just fewer than normal and sorely lacking the stars at the top.

I would say that if next years draft class were to enter this draft, there might be as many as 6 go ahead of McLemore/Noel... and I don't see the middle round of this draft as strong as next year's either.

I'm not asking anyone to agree ... but I am certain.
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There's still another year for our opinions of these elusive kids from next year's draft to fall back to earth. I bet if we skipped ahead to next year and brought the top few picks this year not as many from this year would get bumped as it looks like right now. That's my take on this, especially since during my time here the "next" draft always seems to be the strong one. Means to me people are seeing additional talent in the uncertainty. Talent that isn't really there.
 
Gameface said:
There's still another year for our opinions of these elusive kids from next year's draft to fall back to earth. I bet if we skipped ahead to next year and brought the top few picks this year not as many from this year would get bumped as it looks like right now. That's my take on this, especially since during my time here the "next" draft always seems to be the strong one. Means to me people are seeing additional talent in the uncertainty. Talent that isn't really there.
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I get what you're saying.. I do.

In fairness, you should also see my position. I have actively followed recruiting for 25 years.. the hype, for me was gone 20 years ago.

My takes are viewed as obnoxious more so than what it really is.. I've been watching most of these kids for years, literally. I can tell you, right now, how strong the '14, '15, '16, and '17 draft classes are likely to be.. but no one wants to hear that because they think its impossible to know. Thats largely true, but I admit I find it's a little silly when some fold there arms and make such general claims when they've invested zero time vs. Another that has hundreds and hundreds of hours as well as nice contacts into scouts, recruiters, AAU coaches, etc.
 
PKM said:
I get what you're saying.. I do.

In fairness, you should also see my position. I have actively followed recruiting for 25 years.. the hype, for me was gone 20 years ago.

My takes are viewed as obnoxious more so than what it really is.. I've been watching most of these kids for years, literally. I can tell you, right now, how strong the '14, '15, '16, and '17 draft classes are likely to be.. but no one wants to hear that because they think its impossible to know. Thats largely true, but I admit I find it's a little silly when some fold there arms and make such general claims when they've invested zero time vs. Another that has hundreds and hundreds of hours as well as nice contacts into scouts, recruiters, AAU coaches, etc.
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It's great that you're here now and you've paid so much attention to these kids. I know a lot of sports fans get into this aspect of the game as much as the games themselves. I'm not that guy. I can't imagine wanting to know details of a handful let alone dozens and certainly not hundreds of potential draftees. In the end the Jazz will get two or three of them. I'll have plenty of time to figure out who they are once they're on the Jazz. Like I've said a bunch of times, I'm not a basketball fan, I'm not even an NBA fan, I'm a Utah Jazz fan and outside that my attention span falls rapidly.

Maybe you're right that no one in this years draft would be top three if they were in next years draft. But that's sort of not what I'm saying. 4 years from the draft, does the entire draft class from a weak draft actually have lower numbers? At what ratio do top 3 picks become all-stars? Is that number better in "strong drafts" vs "weak drafts?" I'm a skeptic here.
 
Gameface said:
It's great that you're here now and you've paid so much attention to these kids. I know a lot of sports fans get into this aspect of the game as much as the games themselves. I'm not that guy. I can't imagine wanting to know details of a handful let alone dozens and certainly not hundreds of potential draftees. In the end the Jazz will get two or three of them. I'll have plenty of time to figure out who they are once they're on the Jazz. Like I've said a bunch of times, I'm not a basketball fan, I'm not even an NBA fan, I'm a Utah Jazz fan and outside that my attention span falls rapidly.

Maybe you're right that no one in this years draft would be top three if they were in next years draft. But that's sort of not what I'm saying. 4 years from the draft, does the entire draft class from a weak draft actually have lower numbers? At what ratio do top 3 picks become all-stars? Is that number better in "strong drafts" vs "weak drafts?" I'm a skeptic here.
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I'm too lazy to look it up right now, but yes.. the drafts are tracked and 'ranked' on how they pan out over years.
The summary is the experts are right way more than wrong.. and there have, indeed, been some weak drafts. (Go back and look at 2000, for example) I don't see this draft as bad as that.. but I do see it more like 2006 where not a lot of great players emerged, but you have a couple stars, such as Rondo.

This is not some enigma, NBA teams scout heavily, college teams do as well.. there is A LOT of money at stake and there is some good info out there to be had. I respect that most people don't really care or don't get into it. Some days I wished I didn't.
My point, here, is that it's naive to think because you individually don't devote the energy toward it that it means opinions are just basesless guesses and that no one knows.. its a cop out, imo.
 
As a Norwegian I don`t get to follow College ball at all. It is hard enough to get up in the middle of the night catching the odd Jazz-game, and if I were to do the same with College basketball, I would get divorced - again. The whole draft thing is very foreign for us Europeans who are used to free markets and see all these restrictions as bizarre. I do like it though, but a lot of things I do not understand. For example, why the hell did Harrison Barnes go back to school for his second year? As a second pick, he would get more guaranteed money and would be set for life. Instead he chose to go back to college and risk a major injury. Obviously I am very happy that we ended up with Enes instead of Derrick Williams, but what happened there?
 
scootsy said:
this may be a "weak draft class" but damn... there are so many ****ing 7'0"ers....
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I Agree, i actually made my first post on this forum about how many 7'ers there were and how we can maybe find a steal from the 2nd or 3rd teir guys.. theres definetly a 7'0er thats gonna be a steal.. its probably gonna be Len if he falls

i really like Len, Gobert, Jaiteh and the biggest sleeper maybe Lucas Noguiera
 
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