First Round Bust Predictions

[franklin]

I guess it depends on how you define "bust", but I'll say Larkin and Plumlee. I don't see either of them ever becoming more than average backups.

Bust as in out of the league in very short order. Or maybe something like Jeremy Evans 2nd round lingering role for a first rounder.

Otto Porter is going to be a bust based on where he gets picked.

Balls to pick someone that high, even if it's outside the range of this game.

lol

Complete coincidence, I assure you.

Another one is Larkin, if he's picked #10, I guarantee he'll be a bust. But if he's picked #25, and can become a solid backup PG - is he really a bust then???!!!

I don't think anyone who can play a role in the league picked after 15 or so is a bust. I'm talking Nolan Smith and other first rounders who can't get more than 8-9 minutes per game in their sophomore year.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I ignored the word bust and just answered who I don't want at 21.

 

[bovice]

Trey Burke
Shabazz Muhammad
Kelly Olynyk
Shane Larkin
Tim Hardaway Jr.

I consider a bust someone who doesn't play up to expectation. Btw, Shane Larkin probably won't be in the league in 3 years.

 

[Weezur]

Noel, wieght problems + the ACL.
He won't be ready for a while. I dunno, maybe I haven't watched him enough, but I don't think he warrants a top pick.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Noel, wieght problems + the ACL.
He won't be ready for a while. I dunno, maybe I haven't watched him enough, but I don't think he warrants a top pick.

It's just tons of upside/potential. He immediately brings rim protection and hustle to warrant about 8 - 10 minutes per game. He has all-star potential for a patient team. but like I've said, there could be 12/13 guys in next year's class that could go #1 this year.

 

[Bodhi]

Noel, and it's not even close.

 

[Weezur]

It's just tons of upside/potential. He immediately brings rim protection and hustle to warrant about 8 - 10 minutes per game. He has all-star potential for a patient team. but like I've said, there could be 12/13 guys in next year's class that could go #1 this year.

I see a lot of similarities to Jeremy Evans in Noel.
Jeremy's height is 6'9'', wingspan is about 7'6'' though there's no official measurements.
Noel is 7'0'', wingspan is 7'3.25''
I'm not sure how they record height, but I hope it doesn't include his flat top because that adds like an inch or two.
Jeremy and Noel are around the same weight.

Jeremy gets off the ground quick, maybe as quick as Noel? He can most likely jump higher than Noel (Jeremy is elite in this aspect, having hit the 12'7.5'' mark recently off a one step jump).
They both are raw offensively, from what I've seen.
I've seen Jeremy shoot and his shot looks pretty good. Haven't seen Noel shoot a jumpshot, but DX claims that he doesn't have the touch.

"Noel didn't show any real semblance of a jump-shot in his time at Kentucky, and considering the poor touch he displays from different parts of the floor and his 53% conversion rate from the free throw line, that's probably not a fluke.

From DraftExpress.com https://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2WEciWTBd
https://www.draftexpress.com"

I get the hustle part, but Jeremy has that too and Jeremy is a rotational player at best (16-20 mins a game). Given all of this, I think Noel will bust.

 

[franklin]

Trey Burke
Shabazz Muhammad
[/B]

Noel, wieght problems + the ACL.
He won't be ready for a while. I dunno, maybe I haven't watched him enough, but I don't think he warrants a top pick.

Insane to not take any of these three players at 21.

 

[Weezur]

Insane to not take any of these three players at 21.

I thought this thread was about busts in this draft in general. I mis-read.

 

[Dr. Jones]

^And that's why I hate comparisons. The range of goodness between similar players, on paper, is rampant in the NBA. Sorry, Weez, but the comp is bad.

One question. Jeremy played inferior competition to Noel.. (I can't even believe I'm having this discussion) and what were his averages? Look at their ages. Terrible.

Like I've said, though, Noel is NOT a traditional #1 pick. Next year he's a late lottery, imo. I think he has huge bust potential.. but his upside is equally undeniable.

 

[Weezur]

^And that's why I hate comparisons. The range of goodness between similar players, on paper, is rampant in the NBA. Sorry, Weez, but the comp is bad.

One question. Jeremy played inferior competition to Noel.. (I can't even believe I'm having this discussion) and what were his averages? Look at their ages. Terrible.

Like I've said, though, Noel is NOT a traditional #1 pick. Next year he's a late lottery, imo. I think he has huge bust potential.. but his upside is equally undeniable.

And this is why I'm not a scout. You're right, the age difference between the two is huge and Noel has a lot of time to bulk up and fix some things.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I don't think Noel is a bust, but he might be a defensive specialist like Dennis Rodman, with moderately better hair.

Players like Dieng and Plumlee look a bit limited to me. I'm concerned also whether Karasev will be athletic enough to play defense and succeed in general at the NBA level. If not, he has to be a designated shooter off the bench.