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Worried about the tank? Here is what has to happen.

green

green

Well-Known Member
Right now, the Jazz sit at 14-28, tied with Boston for the 4/5 pick. There are 40 games left. Our biggest win streak is two games. Favors will sit tonight, which probably puts our record the last twenty games at 10-10. .500 ball. Not great.

Here are some things to consider:

I doubt the Jazz go through the trade deadline without trading someone away. That would Kill our depth. I'm also very curious to see how Biedrens/Gobert do tonight with no Favors.

Burke hasn't hit his rookie "wall" yet. Odds are, he will go through a rough stretch, where nothing goes his way. What happens when Burke doesn't play well? We lose.

Ok. I grouped the NBA into three categories: 1 - playoff teams. These are the top 6 teams from each conference and will most likely make the playoffs. 2 - fighting for playoff teams. Theses are the next five teams in each conference. Two of the five will make the playoffs and odds are, most of those 10 teams will try to make the playoffs (hopefully these are the teams that would be desperate enough to trade for a Marvin or Jefferson). 3 - Tankers. Really don't have a shot at the playoffs. These are the rest of the teams. In the West, these teams are 7+ games out of the playoffs. The east is tougher, because they are only 4 games out of the playoffs, but those teams are Boston, Philly, Orlando, Milwaukee and I don't see those teams making a push for the playoffs (the only scenario I see for one of these teams dumping the tank is if Utah would trade Hayward to Boston. Then I could see Boston trying to make a push for the playoffs, especially if they move their pick for Hayward).

Our winning percentages against each group are:

Playoff teams: 0.211
Fighting for playoff teams: 0.429
Tankers: 0.500

We play 15 games against playoff teams = 3 wins
We play 15 games against fighting teams = 6 wins
We play 10 games against tankers = 5 wins

So, that equals out to 14 wins for the rest of the season. That puts us at 28 wins. In the 6-8th pick range. Historically, to get a top 3 pick, you need around 23 wins (or 59 losses). So, the Jazz would have 5 too many wins.

This is where the Jazz will have to really resolve to tank. I don't think they get three wins against the playoff teams, especially if they continue to sit starters (Hayward the last week, Favors now, etc). Let's say they win 2 of those games (ideally, the Jazz would lose the rest of those 15 games. Those 15 losses are HUGE. That would run our loss total to 43). Now, let's say they move Jefferson and Marvin to a couple of fighting teams. That really weakens the team BIG time. We lose two starters. We now look like this:

Burke/that DL guy
Burks/Clark/Lucas
Hayward/Evans
Favors/Evans
Kanter/Gobert/Biedrens

That team sucks. Say we only get 4 wins against the fighting teams (that is 11 more losses, putting us at 54 if the Jazz go 0-15 against playoff teams). If we could go 0-15 vs playoff teams, and 4-11 vs fighting teams (with a trade or two), this means we only need 4 losses out of that "tanking" group. We just happen to play 4 road games out of that group:

@ Mil
@ Phi
@ LAL
@ NO

That means we could win the rest of our home games against "tanking" teams (Orl, Phi, Bos, Sac, LAL, NO) and end up with 58 losses, putting us right in line with the third pick.

Milwaukee plays 18 games against playoff teams, 13 against fighting, 11 vs tankers.
Orlando plays 17 games against playoff teams, 14 against fighting, 10 against tankers.
Philly plays 16 against playoff teams, 14 against fighting, 11 against tankers.
Boston plays 16 playoff, 13 fighting, 11 tankers
Sac plays 17 playoff, 14 fighting, 12 tankers
Lakers play 18 playoff, 12 fighting, 10 tankers
New Orleans has 18 playoff, 14 fighting, 10 tanking.
Utah ash 15 playoff, 15 fighting, 10 tanking.

The teams most likely to end up in the bottom four:

Orlando, Lakers, New Orleans, Utah.

The next group is the 11 tankers group:

Milwaukee, Philly, Boston. Someone has to win that extra game.

The hardest schedule to tank on is Sacramento with 12 games that they could win.

Out of the Orlando, Lakers, NO, and Utah group, Orlando has 30 losses, Utah with 28, Lakers with 26, and NO with 24.

Our schedule and # of losses already accrued give us a great shot at a top 3 pick.
 
Trading Marvin and Jefferson hurts depth, but puts Kanter and Burks on the floor more to close out the season. Might backfire for the tank, but I'm all for it if they can get assets. I wonder what they have to take back though. They won't be getting a good asset back unless they take on salary. They need the cap flexibility for the summer, but a good enough asset might cause them to pull the trigger. Having to rely on a bench of Biedrins/Gobert, Evans, Rush (unless they can trade him too), Garrett/Clark and JLIII would be the best move for the tank. Core5 play well to keep them in the game, but the bench is out-matched on a nightly basis.

I'd like to see Kanter, Favors, Hayward, Burks and Burke all out there together more. . . and that will only happen if Ty Corbin is forced to play them together. I'd love to get something for Marvin and Jefferson. Hopefully it's in the future plans to do it.
 
Ellis269 said:
Trading Marvin and Jefferson hurts depth, but puts Kanter and Burks on the floor more to close out the season. Might backfire for the tank, but I'm all for it if they can get assets. I wonder what they have to take back though. They won't be getting a good asset back unless they take on salary. They need the cap flexibility for the summer, but a good enough asset might cause them to pull the trigger. Having to rely on a bench of Biedrins/Gobert, Evans, Rush (unless they can trade him too), Garrett/Clark and JLIII would be the best move for the tank. Core5 play well to keep them in the game, but the bench is out-matched on a nightly basis.

I'd like to see Kanter, Favors, Hayward, Burks and Burke all out there together more. . . and that will only happen if Ty Corbin is forced to play them together. I'd love to get something for Marvin and Jefferson. Hopefully it's in the future plans to do it.
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I like this. It's the fighting teams that I think would want Marv or Jeff. I wonder which teams have bad contracts we could take.
 
Core4 said:
Start Kanter.
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Ouch. He's learning his way, but needs to keep playing and gaining experience. He's 21. A month older than Gobert. All of these guys need as much playing time as possible. Some days he looks like a lion, some days a kitten. Got his *** handed to him tonight after two strait good games. Hopefully having an off night doesn't get him benched again for a month.
 
I like your method, but the conclusion's a bit hazy... not sure what u're trying to say there right at the end.
 
The only way to truly fix the tank is play Lucas for 30+ minutes a game. That what started the tank and put us at 1 and 14. You want a top 4 pick, that is what is required. Jefferson and Williams don't matter. The question is how do you do that and not piss off Trey Burke?
 
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Injuries or trades...that's what needs to happen.

There are no scenarios that are going to bring us another lottery pick. Too many very good players in the top end of the draft and not enough bad teams in need of dumping salaries. Most teams addressed their financial concerns before the season (or decided they don't care). Likewise, whatever pick we end up with is likely where the Jazz will draft. I don't see any team trading a top-5 pick (assuming Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Randle and Smart all declare). I do think the Jazz can trade RJ to a contender for a late first. MW and BR are less likely trade assets...unless they get on hot streaks between now and the deadline.

I'd like to see the Jazz get another first. It might be possible to combine a late first with GS' pick and move up into the late teens to grab a good back up. I was hoping McDermott but he's playing himself into late lottery/early teens territory. Doubt the Jzz can get him. I also see Utah dangling Kanter as trade bait. He's been bad defensively and Gobert has shown flashes. If the Jazz could land a good starting SF or a decent stretch 4 by dealing Kanter, I think Lindsey would pull the trigger.
 
akirac73 said:
The T-wolves are now my second favorite NBA team.
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In most seasons, my second favorite team is whoever is playing against the Lakers.

However, this season:
My favorite team is whoever is playing against the Jazz that night.
My second favorite team is whoever is playing against the Warriors!


And in the future, it's going to be a close battle between the Warriors and Lakers as the team I despise the most.
 
Nice! Next two games will make a huge difference for the tank. Jazz lose both. . . And they have to be considered tank threats again.
 
Statistically, the Jazz should lose to Washington. They are a "playoff" category team and have a .200 winning % against that category. But the Sacramento game is HUGE. Utah needs to sit Favors at the least.
 
green said:
Statistically, the Jazz should lose to Washington. They are a "playoff" category team and have a .200 winning % against that category. But the Sacramento game is HUGE. Utah needs to sit Favors at the least.
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Flaw.

Decent thread tho, interesting to see it laid out like that.
 
I went back and looked and UGLI is right. Wash is in the "fighting" group. Definitely a winnable game for Utah. Dang. These next two nights ARE huge. Good call Ellis.
 
green said:
I went back and looked and UGLI is right. Wash is in the "fighting" group. Definitely a winnable game for Utah. Dang. These next two nights ARE huge. Good call Ellis.
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Who's Ellis?

We will be favored by at least 5 in the WAS game.
 
UGLI baby said:
Who's Ellis?
.
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That would be me.

Took my kid to the Junior Jazz "Meet a player" basketball clinic. Was hoping for Gobert, but they gave us Biedrins instead. Didn't pay to attend, but feel ripped off anyways. Spent the whole time thinking "at least he's keeping busy until they trade him."

My son was so excited to shoot around with a 7 footer. I didn't have the heart to tell him how I felt.
 
So, I went through each player and put together their starting/bench record.

Kanter Starting: 1-18
Kanter Bench: 13-15
Burke Starting: 13-16
Burke Out: 1-14
Hayward Starting: 11-26
Hayward Out: 2-3
Favors Starting: 13-26
Favors Out: 0-3
Burke Starting @ SG: 2-3
Bench: 14-29

A couple of things we already knew. We live and die by Burke. Also, in limited sample size, Favors is equally as important. Hayward isn't very important to our overall record. As a team, we have about the same winning % with or without Hayward. Burks is clearly a SG, not a PG. And Kanter is NOT starting material yet. Also, Kanter went to the bench when Burke came back, and so I don't know of Kanter's bench record is because of Kanter, or if he is just winning because of Burke.
 
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