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Does Al Jefferson perform better on the 2nd night of a back-to-back?

LifeOnaPlate

LifeOnaPlate

Well-Known Member
I've had the suspicion that Al Jefferson has performed better this season on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Is this true, or am I allowing the Miami-Orlando scenario to skew my perception? I crunched the numbers to find out. Please praise my efforts.


GAMES:

vs. Den: 31 minutes, 2-6 FG, 6 pts, 7 boards, 0 assists, 3 blocks, 1 TO.
vs. Phx: 37 minutes, 8-18 FG, 20 pts, 9 boards, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 TOs.

vs. GS: 36 min, 6-14 FG, 16 pts, 15 boards, 0 assists, 1 block, 2 TOs.
vs. LA Clips: 51 min, 7-20 FG, 18 pts, 10 boards, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 3 TOs.

vs. Mia: 28 min, 1-7 FG, 2 pts, 9 boards, 2 assists, 1 block, 0 TOs.
vs. Orl: 39 min, 10-16 FG, 21 pts, 8 boards, 0 assists, 1 block, 5 TOs.

vs. Atl: 35 min, 7-15 FG, 15 pts, 10 boards, 6 assists, 0 blocks, 0 TOs.
vs. Cha: 31 min, 8-13 FG, 19 pts, 6 boards, 1 assist, 3 blocks, 0 TOs.

vs. Sas: 29 min, 4-7 FG, 10 pts, 6 boards, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 2 TOs.
vs. Por: 31 min, 8-13 FG, 20 pts, 14 boards, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 TO.


TOTALS

FG%:
Game 1: 20-49 (41%) avg. 9 attempts per
Game 2: 41-80 (51%) avg. 16 per, +31 shot attempts


PTS:
Game 1: 49 (9.8 per)
Game 2: 98 (19.6 per)


BOARDS:
Game 1: 47 (9.4 per) <---2 shy of his point total
Game 2: 47 (9.4 per)


ASSISTS:
Game 1: 9 (1.8 per)
Game 2: 6 (1.2 per)


BLOCKS:
Game 1: 5 (1 per)
Game 2: 9 (1.8 per)


TOs:
Game 1: 5 (1 per)
Game 2: 9 (1.8 per) <----5 vs. Orlando


MINUTES:
Game 1: 159 minutes (31.8 per)
Game 2: 189 minutes (37.8 per, including 55 min in a 2OT game)


CONCLUSION:

So far on the year I think it can be persuasively argued that Jefferson performs better on the 2nd night of a back to back:

+7 FGA
+10% FG
+10 PPG
Equal rebounding
+.8 Blocks
+6 MPG
+.8 TOs
-.6 Assists

CAVEAT:

Utah has played five back-to-backs so far (do we lead the league there?), so these stats can be thrown by one monster game. Match-ups, etc. should thus be taken into account. Two of the 2nd night games have been at home, three away. So far, Al has not performed as well at home, shooting percentage-wise in Game 2's:

AWAY: 61% FG (26-42), 20ppg, 9.3 reb, 1 assist, 2 blocks, 2 TO.
HOME: 39% FG (15-38), 19ppg, 9.5 reb, 1.5 assist, 1.5 block, 1.5 TO



LOOKING AHEAD:

Yesterday vs. Lac: 29 min, 4-10 FG, 10 pts, 4 boards, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 1 TO. His FG% and points are right on average. He recorded more assists and blocks but less rebounds. What will we see v. the Bucks?

Also of note: Since starting the season 0-2, Utah has not lost a game on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. What's behind these numbers? Do home jitters play a role for Jefferson? Should we expect this to continue? Does it help explain why Utah seems to be doing better in back-to-backs so far this season?
 
Even if your science is flawed and this is all crazy, you've put some good work into this and written it up well. The hypothesis seems to be correct, and I hope it holds true tonight.

+3
 
Other confounding variables include: whether the opponent was playing a back-to-back,the distance traveled, the time of flights and thus amount of sleep prior to games, the relative effort of team mates (ie, running the offense, getting him the ball at the right time, etc.) Plenty of other stuff to consider, but this seems to be a pretty interesting lead nevertheless.
 
LifeOnaPlate said:
I've had the suspicion that Al Jefferson has performed better this season on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Is this true, or am I allowing the Miami-Orlando scenario to skew my perception? I crunched the numbers to find out. Please praise my efforts.
Click to expand...

...hard to argue against cold stone statistics...especially in basketball. Fact remains, he plays better on the second of a back to back. Could be he plays so lousy in the first game that he tries harder and puts forth more effort on the next night to make up for it? Whatever it is, expect a 20 pt. 10 board game from him tonight...and oh, just 1 turnover! Boozer use to average about 6 on the second of a back to back! I checked on that!
 
the theory stands. according to me science is law until proven wrong, so....... the law of jefferson = better on the tail of back2back. for now.
 
Hmmm .. tough to counter when you have stats to back up your hypothesis. But whatever .. props to you for compiling the stats.

LOL on the playoffs as the 2nd game of a back-to-back with regular season as the first game.
 
royzzz said:
Hmmm .. tough to counter when you have stats to back up your hypothesis. But whatever .. props to you for compiling the stats.

LOL on the playoffs as the 2nd game of a back-to-back with regular season as the first game.
Click to expand...

I blinded me with science.
 
What's amazing to me is that the Jazz have 4 wins on the second night of a back-to-back already this year. In past years that was pretty much a guaranteed loss no matter who they were playing.

If Big Al is the difference in that situation.... great!!!!
 
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