Hayward's AAV: 4 years; 9 per

[green]

Hayward is going to get a lot less money than he thinks he will. Come the offseason, when GM's do their re-eval, PHX and BOS are too smart to throw big money at Hayward. If it takes 12 to get him from the Jazz, you could easily replace him with two mid-level guys and still have money left over.

Before the season, Hayward was a jack of all trades guy who was a good shooter. Now he is nothing more than a role player who struggles big time when put in position to be the go-to guy.

Hayward will not get any offers this summer, and Utah will sign him on for 4/40 to help him save face.

 

[Stifle Tower]

At this point I'm not sure if I even want Hayward back at any price. Unless the kid is ok with coming off the bench. I just don't see a WC playoff team with a SF so weak minded and inconsistent as he. We never know when he's going to go off for 20 pts or 5. We never know when he will play with any aggression or will stand in a corner and pout.

We need consistency from the SF position, not someone who can give us highlight dunks or looks like he's Mormon

Even with this bad season, his career avgs are 44%/37%. As he is only 23, I doubt he "peaked" last season and is now in decline. I have no doubt this season is an anomaly, caused by any number of factors, including trying (and being asked) to do too much on the court, playing for a contract, trying to be a team leader, etc. Not sure what your fascination is with Mormons, but please tell me what one looks like, exactly. I see many people that kind of resemble Gordon in my company and many that don't and to the best of my knowledge, none of them are Mormon. As for playing on the Jazz, I don't think it really matters. Favors, Burke, Burks, Kanter, Evans, Marvin, Gobert etc. They all look different from each other, yet all receive cheers when playing well. Neither Stockton nor Malone were Mormons, yet they have statues outside the ESA. Now I would agree there is probably a minimum standard of behavior and "looks" for a Jazz player. I doubt you'll will ever see guys like Birdman, Metta WP or Delonte West play for Utah. But race, nationality, tattoos, etc. really don't play a part.

Hayward is going to get a lot less money than he thinks he will. Come the offseason, when GM's do their re-eval, PHX and BOS are too smart to throw big money at Hayward. If it takes 12 to get him from the Jazz, you could easily replace him with two mid-level guys and still have money left over.

Before the season, Hayward was a jack of all trades guy who was a good shooter. Now he is nothing more than a role player who struggles big time when put in position to be the go-to guy.

Hayward will not get any offers this summer, and Utah will sign him on for 4/40 to help him save face.

I agree Hayward is in for a rude awakening when he hits the FA trail. Most GM's will probably dismiss this as an "off" year, but they also have to conclude that Hayward isn't a #1 player on a team. I tend to agree with your estimate. Bigs always get paid more and that's why Favors got $12M/per. Hayward may get interest this summer, but none for higher than what Utah offered him last summer. And the Jazz will show good will by putting that deal back on the table, counting on Gordon to boost his shooting %'s next year once a new coach comes in and has Utah actually run an offense instead of Hayward trying to create whatever he can.

 

[Crawlnstall]

I've always really liked Hayward, but this season he has frustrated me a lot. I've been to about 6 jazz games this year and every one he has shot very very poorly. He seems like he disappears on offense. I remember last year he would spark up and have great runs and I havent really seen it this year. Maybe its because I havent watched as many games on TV last year as I did this year...

 

[cjs55]

Not get any offers in FA? Give me a break. A GM is going to offer Hayward 10 million a year, and he will probably be a good deal at that price. If he keeps playing like he is this year, he isn't worth that, but it's unlikely he will be this bad in the future. I think some of you forget how good he looks as a 3rd option. (and yes, 3rd options get paid 10 mil a year).

 

[GVC]

(and yes, 3rd options get paid 10 mil a year).

There are only 58 players in the league (less than 2 per team) making $10mm+ this season, and some of them are being paid for their defense. Dropping $10mm on Gordo would be a mistake, especially since he doesn't have the skills or athleticism to be a perimeter stopper or offensive hub.

 

[akirac73]

(and yes, 3rd options get paid 10 mil a year).

Care to list names? I'm curious to see who these 3rd option players that are earning 8 figures are (and what franchises they play for). Thanks.

 

[fishonjazz]

I would have no problem with the jazz paying Hayward 10 million a year.
I think he is better than what he is currently showing

I felt he was worth the 40 million dollar, 4 year contract when it was offered to him and would have been thrilled if he would have signed it. I still think that's a good deal for him

 

[Ellipse]

I would have no problem with the jazz paying Hayward 10 million a year.
I think he is better than what he is currently showing

I felt he was worth the 40 million dollar, 4 year contract when it was offered to him and would have been thrilled if he would have signed it. I still think that's a good deal for him

A sample size of 57 games is hard to ignore. Maybe what he is showing us this season is the "real" Gordon Hayward.

 

[cjs55]

Care to list names? I'm curious to see who these 3rd option players that are earning 8 figures are (and what franchises they play for). Thanks.

Sure. I'll ignore the guys who are super overpaid and couldn't actually be 3rd options at this point like Bargnani and Stoudemire.

3rd options that make more than 10 mil a year: Joe Johnson, Luol Deng, Danilo Galinari, Ty Lawson, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh (ok, really would be a 2nd option on most teams), Pekovic, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Gay, Nene, Serge Ibaka,

3rd options that will likely make 10 mil a year their next contract: Paul Millsap, Mike Conley, Lance Stephenson, Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard

3rd options that possibly will make 10 mil a year their next contract: Thad Young, Chandler Parsons, Kemba Walker, Wilson Chandler

 

[gregbroncs]

Sure. I'll ignore the guys who are super overpaid and couldn't actually be 3rd options at this point like Bargnani and Stoudemire.

3rd options that make more than 10 mil a year: Joe Johnson, Luol Deng, Danilo Galinari, Ty Lawson, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh (ok, really would be a 2nd option on most teams), Pekovic, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Gay, Nene, Serge Ibaka,

3rd options that will likely make 10 mil a year their next contract: Paul Millsap, Mike Conley, Lance Stephenson, Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard

3rd options that possibly will make 10 mil a year their next contract: Thad Young, Chandler Parsons, Kemba Walker, Wilson Chandler

Most of the guys you have listed as 3rd options making 10M per year were signed to those contracts as 1st or 2nd options (the exception being Bosh). Not to mention a lot of them are not 3rd options now. Gallinari is not. Johnson is not. Deng is not. Those guys are 2nd options and signed those deals as such.

 

[cjs55]

Most of the guys you have listed as 3rd options making 10M per year were signed to those contracts as 1st or 2nd options (the exception being Bosh). Not to mention a lot of them are not 3rd options now. Gallinari is not. Johnson is not. Deng is not. Those guys are 2nd options and signed those deals as such.

Boozer was signed as the 2nd option in Chicago right after Deng signed his deal, and he and Deng basically shared that role. Nobody who watched Deng play would expect him to be the sole second option: He's never been a great offensive player, most of his value is in defense and pure stamina on the court. Gallinari isn't really a 2nd option, and if he is he is just barely so. He has been a 2nd option out of necessity, but only because Denver has basically been a team filled with similar players (Chandler, Lawson, Iguodala). I don't think Gallinari is much better than Hayward if at all: Yeah, he's a somewhat better scorer, but a worse defender and playmaker. The Gallo deal is quite similar to a Hayward deal: If we signed Hayward to 10 mil, we'd be definitely be expecting to get some better players to surround him.

It's true that Johnson was overpaid massively to be a first option, but I think on a great team he should have been paid around 10 million a year as a third option.

 

[GVC]

Joe Johnson (#2), Luol Deng, Danilo Galinari(arguably a #2), Ty Lawson(#1/2), Josh Smith(perimeter stopper/shot blocker), Andre Iguodala(Perimeter Stopper), Chris Bosh (ok, really would be a 2nd option on most teams), Pekovic(#2), Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Gay, Nene, Serge Ibaka(Rim Protector),

If you remove the key defensive pieces and #1/2's, you're left with:

Luol Deng (who may end up making less than $10mm next season, and is clearly overpaid)
Danilo Galinari (who is arguably a #2, and can actually create offense)
Eric Gordon (overpaid; can create offense and shoot better than Gordo)
Tyreke (see above)
Nic Batum (meh)
Rudy Gay (ridiculously overpaid)
Nene (a legitimate starting big)

Not a lot of great comps. Most of the other players you've listed who might get $10mm+ per year on their next contracts can create offense better than Gordo or fill a key defensive role. With players who can competently handle/create and defend, the added value of Gordo's play-making and defense is pretty minimal. You'd probably gain more signing a mid-level or less spot-up shooter than you'd lose from Gordo, before factoring in cost. Gordo seems to be stuck in no-man's land: Not a good enough lead and without the right skills to fill a complementary role.