Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):
[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Seed[/TD]
[TD]Chances[/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[TD]2nd[/TD]
[TD]3rd[/TD]
[TD]4th[/TD]
[TD]5th[/TD]
[TD]6th[/TD]
[TD]7th[/TD]
[TD]8th[/TD]
[TD]9th[/TD]
[TD]10th[/TD]
[TD]11th[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[TD]13th[/TD]
[TD]14th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]1[/TD]
[TD]250[/TD]
[TD].250[/TD]
[TD].215[/TD]
[TD].178[/TD]
[TD].357[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]2[/TD]
[TD]199[/TD]
[TD].199[/TD]
[TD].188[/TD]
[TD].171[/TD]
[TD].319[/TD]
[TD].123[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]3[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD].156[/TD]
[TD].157[/TD]
[TD].156[/TD]
[TD].226[/TD]
[TD].265[/TD]
[TD].040[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]4[/TD]
[TD]119[/TD]
[TD].119[/TD]
[TD].126[/TD]
[TD].133[/TD]
[TD].099[/TD]
[TD].351[/TD]
[TD].160[/TD]
[TD].012[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]5[/TD]
[TD]88[/TD]
[TD].088[/TD]
[TD].097[/TD]
[TD].107[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].261[/TD]
[TD].360[/TD]
[TD].084[/TD]
[TD].004[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]6[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[TD].063[/TD]
[TD].071[/TD]
[TD].081[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].439[/TD]
[TD].305[/TD]
[TD].040[/TD]
[TD].001[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]7[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD].043[/TD]
[TD].049[/TD]
[TD].058[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].599[/TD]
[TD].232[/TD]
[TD].018[/TD]
[TD].000[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]8[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD].028[/TD]
[TD].033[/TD]
[TD].039[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].724[/TD]
[TD].168[/TD]
[TD].008[/TD]
[TD].000[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]9[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD].017[/TD]
[TD].020[/TD]
[TD].024[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].813[/TD]
[TD].122[/TD]
[TD].004[/TD]
[TD].000[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]10[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD].011[/TD]
[TD].013[/TD]
[TD].016[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].870[/TD]
[TD].089[/TD]
[TD].002[/TD]
[TD].000[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]11[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD].008[/TD]
[TD].009[/TD]
[TD].012[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].907[/TD]
[TD].063[/TD]
[TD].001[/TD]
[TD].000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]12[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD].007[/TD]
[TD].008[/TD]
[TD].010[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].935[/TD]
[TD].039[/TD]
[TD].000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]13[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD].006[/TD]
[TD].007[/TD]
[TD].009[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].960[/TD]
[TD].018[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]14[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD].005[/TD]
[TD].006[/TD]
[TD].007[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD].982[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*The table is not adjusted for tiebreakers. #4 and #5 would be virtually even in terms of winning a top-3 pick, although Utah has one additional ping-pong ball due to the uneven number of chances when combining 4/5 and dividing by 2.
So here's my "flawed logic" prediction:
1. Teams slotted 6-14 stay the same as they have the highest percentages for finishing at their respective spots.
2. Boston at #5 won't drop to #6 (as #6 has a higher chance of finishing there) nor will they stay at #5 as #4 has a higher percentage of finishing #5. So Boston lost the coin flip battle, but they win the war as they're going to jump.
3. Utah at #4 has the highest chance of finishing at #5, so Utah drops a spot.
4. Milwaukee has the highest single likelihood of finishing at #4. Sorry, Bucks.
5. So now we have Orlando, Philly and Boston left as the lotto teams.
6. Milwaukee already dropped to #4, so next likeliest spot for Orlando is #1. By same logic, Philly gets the #2 slot and Boston, by default, is left with the #3 position.
To recap:
1. Orlando
2. Philadelphia
3. Boston
4. Milwaukee
5. Utah
6-14. (No change from pre-lottery positions).