Butterfly effect

[♪alt13]

Not sure if serious.

Also not sure if 3 of his teammates could have done this:

Yeah I know he did that. I also don't think he would be a pg in todays NBA. Having two great scorers in Worthy and Kareem made it possible for him to play there imo. If he was coming into the NBA today he would be a really good 3 but a guy like Lebron would tear him up. Don't get me wrong I think he is an all star in any era but he isn't on the goat tier everyone puts him in. Yes I would take Kareem or Worthy over him.

 

[♪alt13]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_iX0rRkVCI

 

[♪alt13]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qNmaMYTn1Q

 

[LogGrad98]

Yeah I know he did that. I also don't think he would be a pg in todays NBA. Having two great scorers in Worthy and Kareem made it possible for him to play there imo. If he was coming into the NBA today he would be a really good 3 but a guy like Lebron would tear him up. Don't get me wrong I think he is an all star in any era but he isn't on the goat tier everyone puts him in. Yes I would take Kareem or Worthy over him.

Eh, I get the feeling this is just a setup for other-forum shenanigans. We can agree to disagree.

 

[♪alt13]

Eh, I get the feeling this is just a setup for other-forum shenanigans. We can agree to disagree.

I'll agree to disagree. Srs no shenanigans. Magic was great. not on bb rushmore for sure.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Yeah I know he did that. I also don't think he would be a pg in todays NBA. Having two great scorers in Worthy and Kareem made it possible for him to play there imo. If he was coming into the NBA today he would be a really good 3 but a guy like Lebron would tear him up. Don't get me wrong I think he is an all star in any era but he isn't on the goat tier everyone puts him in. Yes I would take Kareem or Worthy over him.

Did you ever see Magic play?
I was in my "prime" at the same time as Magic. He was DOMINANT!
The others were scorers but Magic was the best on that team. Kareem in his prime, perhaps you take him over Magic because great bigs always have more value. Johnson was the greatest PG of all-time. My apologies to Stockton, who was the greatest "pass-first" PG. But Johnson was able to assist or simply take over games with his scoring. And his size allowed him to guard anyone.

And my praise is DESPITE the fact I hate Magic with a passion. Can't stand the man.

 

[silesian]

Compared to. .....

What if Utah's #1 pick falls on the year they extend the college age requirement to 2 years. Lets pretend it falls in 2015. Congratulations Utah on your #1 pick, Willie Cauley Stein, come back in another 30 years for your next chance at a superstar.

So you think there is no chance of their 2 3 4 picks becoming superstars?

This is no different than the luck of having a high draft pick in good or bad drafts in the current system


How many number 1 one draft choices have the jazz received on the 20 years of the current system

 

[silesian]

You make tanking worse

Hate it. You would have really good teams getting a top 5 every year. This will not lead to parity. Also players will wait for a big market team that needs their position. On top of that organizations will know which years they have and so will begin courting players at an inappropriate age.

A 9th team like cleveland winning the lotto is good for anti-tanking but the next 3 being Bucks, sixers, Orlando in that order is bad. I would:

1. Do reverse lotto order in the second round. ie Suns would pick 31st and cavs would pick 44th. It's not a lot but it's a decent bone considering 2nd round contracts are not guaranteed.

2. Expand the lotto to 7 picks. Currently if you finish 1st in the tank the very worst you could pick is 4 and that is highly unlikely. The possibility of picking 8th muddies the water a bit.

3. Lotto order by conference. Instead of awarding numbers league wide give each conference a 50/50 shot and award lotto to bottom 7 teams. This would have given the Bucks equal odds to the Jazz, Sixers & Lakers, Magic and kings, Celtics and Pellies.

4. Adjust the odds The difference between the Bucks 25% and the Jazz 10.4% is an invitation to tank.

Better odds

1. 16
2. 12
3. 10
4. 7
5. 3
6. 1
7. .5

Anyone of these things taken alone would be insufficient but taken in concert I think they would have a dramatic effect.

Thus would have no affect on tanking or even make it worse

You think teams are tanking for second round picks? Seriously?

Your system actually increases the difference in probability between picks, increasing the incentive to tank.

And by splitting by conference you just create a race to the bottom by conference instead of by league. How does this help?

 

[cowhide]

Yeah we could have traded him for Worthy. SRS Magic was not as great as many say. People that put him in their top 5 all time are nuts, imo. He was the 3rd best player on his team.

lmao- that is funny.

 

[carolinajazz]

Imagine if San Antonio hadn't tanked in order to draft Tim Duncan or if the Jazz had drafted Tony Parker instead of Raul Lopez. It's easy to play the what if game.

.....what if the NBA hierarchy would have told the refs to enforce the "palming" and "traveling" calls back in the 70's, thus forcing teams to actually pass the ball more, creating a watchable sport where there would be more assists than turnovers each game and then banned any visible tattoo's so that we wouldn't have to see all the "eyesores" that dot the screen when you turn on to watch an NBA game?

 

[Borat]

Butterfly effect has more to do with randomness. In this example (which is pretty interesting but certainly not uniquely improbable), out of ~200,000 field goal attempts in a season two shots create a completely different NBA (could have been one shot and a coin flip for tiebreaker). Could have been a drop of perspiration in the eye that affected a shot, a 1 mm mechanical error, tape loosened on a finger on the shooting hand, etc.

Indeed, imagine if Michael Jordan's dad got a drop of perspiration in the eye and pulled out... Now that's a butterfly effect I am sure we all dreamed of over and over again.

 

[♪alt13]

Thus would have no affect on tanking or even make it worse

You think teams are tanking for second round picks? Seriously?

No, but I think it would help alleviate the hopelessness of finishing 10th-14th. To a small degree yes, but like I said it is just one small incentive.

Your system actually increases the difference in probability between picks, increasing the incentive to tank.

Disagree fine. But bold is just 100% false

Currently the worst team has a 25% chance and the 8th has a 2.8% chance. This way The worst would have a 16% chance and the *8th would have a 7% chance.

To illustrate how it would help I will use Philli as an example. Half way through the season they had a fire sale. They managed to chase down a 19.9% lotto chance and guaranteed top 5 pick. Under my proposal they would have secured only a 12% chance and a guaranteed top 9.

Let's say they behaved differently ,managed to improve their team before the deadline, and finished with 26 wins behind Bucks,Magic,Celtics and Jazz. Currently they would have forfeited a 19.9% for an 8.8% . Under my proposal they would have dropped from 12% to 7%.

And by splitting by conference you just create a race to the bottom by conference instead of by league. How does this help?

This is a fair concern but...

Each year there are 10-11 teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs, these teams don't tank, that leaves 4-5 tank candidates in each conference. My way gives the bottom four teams in each conf. a fair chance of getting a high lotto(1-4) or a mid one (5-10). Their chances: 16,16,12,12,10,10,7,7 for seven spots.