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Jameis Winston alleged point-shaving

I'd like to see the guy's track record of bets first. Maybe he was just winning a few, built up a nice little cash pile that he didn't have before, and went bigger. That's a pretty typical gambler pattern and one that will turn you broke quickly.
 
21-7 is a pretty big shave. You don't think he could have fumbled or whatever on one play to make it 21-14, more reasonable and less likely to get caught, than totally stinking it up for an entire half? And if they are doing this why not go big for real, 20 grand or something. I dunno it looks pretty tame to me, but I am not a college football fan and I don't bet on sports so what do I know.
 
Duck Rodgers said:
I'd like to see the guy's track record of bets first. Maybe he was just winning a few, built up a nice little cash pile that he didn't have before, and went bigger. That's a pretty typical gambler pattern and one that will turn you broke quickly.
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Okay, didn't see that there was a link on the page to this:

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LogGrad98 said:
And if they are doing this why not go big for real, 20 grand or something. I dunno it looks pretty tame to me, but I am not a college football fan and I don't bet on sports so what do I know.
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20K on a half-time score? That would probably arouse some suspicions. Look what 5K did. Plus they probably would not have taken the bet to begin with. Maybe he did bet 20K and just spread it out through other gambling sites and this is the only one to come forward so far.

This reeks of a Michael Vick type scenario of a young kid "keeping it real for the homies" by doing some dumb **** that is well beneath him.
 
Adding those bets up minus that one big bet......his friend was down $1500 on the week. If that's his typical week...dude should learn a lesson from the publicity and quit, even if he didn't cheat on that one.
 
candrew said:
20K on a half-time score? That would probably arouse some suspicions. Look what 5K did. Plus they probably would not have taken the bet to begin with. Maybe he did bet 20K and just spread it out through other gambling sites and this is the only one to come forward so far.

This reeks of a Michael Vick type scenario of a young kid "keeping it real for the homies" by doing some dumb **** that is well beneath him.
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Beneath him? No, it seems right in line with who he is as a person from everything we know about him to this point.
 
Well one thing we do know from looking at this kids bet record is he's a degenerate gambler. How many bets is that in less than a week? Holy Cow.
 
QuinSnydersHair said:
Beneath him? No, it seems right in line with who he is as a person from everything we know about him to this point.
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I was speaking about the dollar amount relative to how much he's going to make in about 6 month's when he signs his first pro contract.

Character-wise, yeah I agree, this seems to be in line - that's what makes it so plausible to begin with.
 
candrew said:
I was speaking about the dollar amount relative to how much he's going to make in about 6 month's when he signs his first pro contract.

Character-wise, yeah I agree, this seems to be in line - that's what makes it so plausible to begin with.
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He didn't do it to make money. He did it so his friend could make money.
 
candrew said:
I should subscribe to your Newsletter!
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Okay, so here goes...I'll tell you now.

Last night player props for the Mavs players in the Blazers game.

Dirk O19.5 pts
Ellis O18.5 pts
Parsons O18 pts
Chandler O9.5 pts

I'll start by saying in general, most people love betting favorites, the over in games and the over on player props. It excites us. But if one can control their self and think things through, for the OU on points for player props in the NBA, it is the under, when doing all players listed for one team (I only like it if it's 4+ players), that makes sense, specifically if it's a deep team like the Mavericks. Again, the key is to do the under for all the players provided on one team (like I did with the four Mavs last night--admittedly I did the U on Lebron, Love and Irving two games ago though and won 2/3) so long as there are four or more players listed and so long as the team has an average or better bench.

I'm not very good at explaining this but essentially, on a given night, the Mavs (as just one example) have so many damn other players who can score that there is a great likelihood that one or two (or more) of Wright, Felton, Aminu, Harris, Barea, Jefferson or Nelson score well above their average on that night. Maybe one of those knuckleheads pours in 15 points and another 12 points. Those 27 points along with the rest of the bench production equals a large portion of their team scoring. To take it a step further, there is also a strong chance that one of the four players listed (Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Chandler in this particular case) goes well above his average, say Dirk with 26 points, which is not ridiculous by any stretch of the imagination but yet 6-7 points above his average. And when this happens, the other three key players typically go below. The chance that all four go above are soooooooo slim. Each would have to go JUST over their number and their bench would have to suck on that night, which given its depth, is highly unlikely. Even 3/4 is more than unlikely for those reasons.

Not sure I explained that well but that's it in a nutshell.
 
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