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I'm a little worried about Conley

ghsartin

ghsartin

Well-Known Member
At first, I was thrilled that the Jazz got Conley, especially because he would be a clear upgrade over Rubio, someone who is historically bad at finishing from close range and can't shoot consistently from outside. Conley's game is clearly better rounded and, yet, I'm worried about the following:

(a) Conley's FG% from close range has been declining: .607 (in 2016-17), .571 (in 2017-18) and .554 (in 2018-19). It may seem that even the last number is good, but usually good scoring PGs shoot it around .600 during their primes. When their athleticism starts to diminish, though, their FG% from close range decreases accordingly. The result is that their defender doesn't need to worry about guarding the dribble penetration as much and can focus on getting real close to bother the outside shot.

(b) If Conley was a pass-first PG, becoming less of a slasher and more of a shooter would not be much of a concern, But he was always a scoring PG (13.3 field goal attempts and only 6.3 assists each 36 minutes, for his career). What if he doesn't change his mindset and the Jazz acquired someone who wants to remain an important scorer but can only do so by jacking up shots from outside? To make matters even more complicated, Conley is a good but not a great outside shooter: .408 (in 2016-17), .312 (in 2017-18), .364 (in 2018-19), with an average of .375 for his career. Besides, he seems to be trending down on this particular attribute.

(c) Conley has always been praised for his "coolness", which was often interpreted as "smarts" but he was never very efficient, holding a 17.7 PER for his career -- league average is 15.0. Deron Williams, for comparison, held a 18.2 PER for his career and retired at 32 -- Conley's age right now. I'm not saying that Conley has no basketball left, but we should not be surprised if he has a very "so-so" season, let's say 15 points (by taking 13 shots), 6 assists and a very porous defense, while playing only in 32 minutes per night in 70 overall games.

(d) That leads to my last point: Conley seems slow in the preseason, especially on defense. He is clearly saving energy and just getting acquainted with Snyder's system, but I'm worried that he might not able to stay in front of his man when games start to matter. A line-up with an over the hill Conley and a subpar defender like Bogdanovic might not be able to defend any team in the league, even with Gobert chasing slashers like a man possessed.

Am I being too pessimistic? I like the guy and I'm rooting for him. He can surely talk the talk but...
 
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I think Conley will be okay, you have to give it time. But there is one thing that I do worry about as a general team situation. Our starting and finishing guards are basically both 6'1, so I ask myself the question, who are we built to beat in the playoffs?

In the east, if the Sixers and Bucks get through to the final, and we make it out of the west, we come up against a Sixers team that is at minimum 6'6, starting, and probably finishing. The bucks are tall as **** as well. In our conference, I think we can match up against the Blazers and Nuggets of the world. The Clippers and Lakers can try and abuse the switches on us. Kawhi or PG can try and get either Mike or Donovan on the switch, and it's a total mismatch. Same with the Lakers, LeBron/AD.

I mean, I don't want to be the one that addresses the elephant in the room, but it is what it is, and I think it's a concern.
 
Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars were 6'1 and 6'3, and they fought their way to the promise land. It's going to have to be that big of a monumental effort from our guys, considering our starting guards' height.
 
ghsartin said:
At first, I was thrilled that the Jazz got Conley, especially because he would be a clear upgrade over Rubio, someone who is historically bad at finishing from close range and can't shoot consistently from outside. Conley's game is clearly better rounded and, yet, I'm worried about the following:

(a) Conley's FG% from close range has been declining: .607 (in 2016-17), .571 (in 2017-18) and .554 (in 2018-19). It may seem that even the last number is good, but usually good scoring PGs shoot it around .600 during their primes. When their athleticism starts to diminish, though, their FG% from close range decreases accordingly. The result is that their defender doesn't need to worry about guarding the dribble penetration as much and can focus on getting real close to bother the outside shot.

(b) If Conley was a pass-first PG, becoming less of a slasher and more of a shooter would not be much of a concern, But he was always a scoring PG (13.3 field goal attempts and only 6.3 assists each 36 minutes, for his career). What if he doesn't change his mindset and the Jazz acquired someone who wants to remain an important scorer but can only do so by jacking up shots from outside? To make matters even more complicated, Conley is a good but not a great outside shooter: .408 (in 2016-17), .312 (in 2017-18), .364 (in 2018-19), with an average of .375 for his career. Besides, he seems to be trending down on this particular attribute.

(c) Conley has always been praised by his "coolness", which was often interpreted as "smarts" but he was never very efficient, holding a 17.7 PER for his career -- league average is 15.0. Deron Williams, for comparison, held a 18.2 PER for his career and retired at 32 -- Conley's age right now. I'm not saying that Conley has no basketball left, but we should not be surprised if he has a very "so-so" season, let's say 15 points (by taking 13 shots), 6 assists and a very porous defense, while playing only in 32 minutes per night in 70 overall games.

(d) That leads to my last point: Conley seems slow in the preseason, especially on defense. He is clearly saving energy and just getting acquainted with Snyder's system, but I'm worried that he might not able to stay in front of his man when games start to matter. A line-up with an over the hill Conley and a subpar defender like Bogdanovic might not be able to defend any team in the league, even with Gobert chasing slashers like a man possessed.

Am I being too pessimistic? I like the guy and I'm rooting for him. He can surely talk the talk but...
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Props on a great thread with stats that actually back up your statement. However, I don't think that there is any reason to worry about his inside game regardless of what stats say and why there is even more reason to be excited about him running the point. It's obvious and clear that Conley is a true "can do it all" PG, even with his very slightly declining stats regarding his offensive-inside game. But think about this. Grizzlies have had weak wing players for the past few years allowing opposing defenses to never have to worry about a Conley-pass kick out. And Conley still has produced some incredible offensive stats even though a very minor/gradual slide over the last 3 years.

2016-2017
Grizzlies ended up a 7th seed in the rugged Western Conference. Conley was the reason they got there. Look at their Roster and especially at their wing players. They had a deficiency in talented wing players, Conley still produced 60% from inside. Old men Tony Allen and Vince Carter were their most efficient wing men, both not huge threats.

2017-2018
Grizzlies ended up 14th in the Western Conference. Why such a big drop?? Conley was injured and only played 12 games. That's the kind of impact he had on the team. Even though he played only 12 games, he made immediate impact on the court.

2018-2019
Grizzlies realize that their team is no longer that of the past "grit and grind" days. Gasol is traded to Toronto, they struggle with injuries throughout the season as well as trying to find identity after firing their teams beloved Coach in Coach Fitzdale. Promoting Coach Bickerstaff and later firing him.

Now Conley is on a team with incredible outside shooters. He can drive and draw the defense for a kick out or finish it. Much different situation and there is only reason to get excited. Don't watch the preseason, it's misleading and doesn't say anything about a team.
 
Jazzmix said:
I am not concerned about Conley's offensive input. Two things that worry me: how he will do on defense and if he stays healthy.
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There are two things that worry you...
One is how he will do on defense when he has a proven track record of being a great defender? Why would you worry about someones strength??
The second is if he stays healthy. Doesn't that go for everyone on our team?? Why worry about something that we can't control. Lets just hope for the best.
 
Dali said:
I think Conley will be okay, you have to give it time. But there is one thing that I do worry about as a general team situation. Our starting and finishing guards are basically both 6'1, so I ask myself the question, who are we built to beat in the playoffs?

In the east, if the Sixers and Bucks get through to the final, and we make it out of the west, we come up against a Sixers team that is at minimum 6'6, starting, and probably finishing. The bucks are tall as **** as well. In our conference, I think we can match up against the Blazers and Nuggets of the world. The Clippers and Lakers can try and abuse the switches on us. Kawhi or PG can try and get either Mike or Donovan on the switch, and it's a total mismatch. Same with the Lakers, LeBron/AD.

I mean, I don't want to be the one that addresses the elephant in the room, but it is what it is, and I think it's a concern.
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What a ridiculous thing to worry about. Sixers have Ben Simmons who can't make a basket and he's 6"6. I also recall a Jazz team who made it to the finals with a 6"1 Stockton who was actually 5"11.5 and a 6"4 Hornacek who was actually 6"3. Your worried about the Lakers Switches with Lebron and AD?? Wouldn't that switch put a 7"2 Rudy Gobert against a 6"7 Kuzma in the paint?? This is absolutely insane.
Ya know what? Your right. Fans, please kiss all hopes goodbye because our back court is about 1 inch shorter on average to the rest of the league. WE WILL NEVER WILL A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH THOSE NUMBERS. Because our little fellas will get switched onto by other teams forwards and centers and then I guess we're screwed. Small back courts can never make it in today's small ball NBA system. Your absolutely right. Are you by chance a mortician? Because you sure know how to spread darkness over nothing.

Do you always think of the worst case scenario and "worry" about it? Should we celebrate Christmas? Is that ok? After all its a celebration of a birthday of a guy that died, should we talk about that too? Is there a grey cloud that follows you around wherever you walk??
 
Lakers_Slapper said:
What a ridiculous thing to worry about. Sixers have Ben Simmons who can't make a basket and he's 6"6. I also recall a Jazz team who made it to the finals with a 6"1 Stockton who was actually 5"11.5 and a 6"4 Hornacek who was actually 6"3. Your worried about the Lakers Switches with Lebron and AD?? Wouldn't that switch put a 7"2 Rudy Gobert against a 6"7 Kuzma in the paint?? This is absolutely insane.
Ya know what? Your right. Fans, please kiss all hopes goodbye because our back court is about 1 inch shorter on average to the rest of the league. WE WILL NEVER WILL A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH THOSE NUMBERS. Because our little fellas will get switched onto by other teams forwards and centers and then I guess we're screwed. Small back courts can never make it in today's small ball NBA system. Your absolutely right. Are you by chance a mortician? Because you sure know how to spread darkness over nothing.

Do you always think of the worst case scenario and "worry" about it? Should we celebrate Christmas? Is that ok? After all its a celebration of a birthday of a guy that died, should we talk about that too? Is there a grey cloud that follows you around wherever you walk??
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So much to unpack here, but I'll try and just be somewhat brief. Many mistakes.

Firstly, Ben Simmons is not 6'6". He's 6'10". That's not a small difference, that is a big deal.

Secondly, Lebron/AD handling the ball, calling rondo, or Caldwell-Pope for a pick so that Conley or Donovan are switched on to LeBron, for example, is a real tactical strategy that can be, and was used against the Jazz. I firmly remember the Lakers using this tactic to switch Donovan onto LeBron, and as much as it pains me to say, LeBron abused a 6'1.5" Donovan. If you think, that our coaching staff, hasn't discussed the nature of our small backcourt, and how we can maximize strengths, and try and minimize the defensive weakness we could potentially have with our small guards, then I don't know what to tell ya mate. You can bury your head in the sand if you like.

Finally, I look at all angles, positive, negative, neutral, etc. Now perhaps gather yourself, and come back not looking like an infantile buffoon. Cheers.
 
Lakers_Slapper said:
There are two things that worry you...
One is how he will do on defense when he has a proven track record of being a great defender? Why would you worry about someones strength??
The second is if he stays healthy. Doesn't that go for everyone on our team?? Why worry about something that we can't control. Lets just hope for the best.
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Hope you are right about his D, but he is undersized which can be an issue in certain matchups. As for health he has some injuries history so I think it's reasonable to worry about him more than others in that matter. But it's not like I can't sleep because of it.
 
Yes Conley will be fine and absolutely good for us, but it doesn't mean that you haven't provided some intriguing concerns and backed them up solidly. I added one or two more which certainly are based in reality.
 
I think Conley is doomed in a way that few understand. His astral energy smacks of a man who has dipped his toe a little too far into Enochian magic in a sad attempt to hedge against his aging joints.

But that shouldn't be a problem we will see on the court this year.
 
Naw man he guarded DM45 as good as anyone last season, that headband joe game he pretty much shut him out. Looked like those two were playing at their own speed above everyone else on the court.
 
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